Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Excuse my ignorance, but where is the England CET zone..? 

According to the Hadley centre, representative of a roughly triangular area of the United Kingdom enclosed by Lancashire, London and Bristol.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

We look to be joining in with the "continental" type climate under high pressure towards the end of the week. With some cold nights and low dew points. How the incoming Atlantic Lows will eventually interact within the developing pattern is still up in the air, and there is still a slim chance we could see a more southerly track, or maybe a wedge of high pressure disrupting any major Atlantic onslaught. Though the form horse is for the Atlantic lows to break through and we will end up on the warmer side, i wouldn't say it's totally nailed. And with some cold continental air (even though the 850s are not that cold) any approaching fronts, as long as they have a south easterly element in the flow, could bring some transient snowfall at least. 

GFS for FRI/SAT/SUN morning min temps, looking cold, especially for England and Wales.

GFSOPEU12_90_17.png

GFSOPEU12_114_17.png

GFSOPEU12_138_17.png

Edited by chris55
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Cheers, everydays a school day in here . :D

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Seasonality said:

According to the Hadley centre, representative of a roughly triangular area of the United Kingdom enclosed by Lancashire, London and Bristol.

Is the centre of it used for temperature purposes though?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Is the centre of it used for temperature purposes though?

I believe it is a mean of the whole triangular area, with some adjustment for urban warming. That is what I have gleaned from online sources anyway.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

Not looking past 168 from now on, just to much chop and change.

Both UK Met and GFS interesting prior to this cut off point, get a feeling something is in the mix and it isn't resolved yet. 

This coming weekend seems to be trending colder each run.

 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

We can only hope that the models are ignorant, when it comes to putative SSWs.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Here is a paper with more on the CET series

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ParkerHorton_CET_IJOC_2005.pdf

 

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

There is no signal for a Euro high in the 7 day range. If you take both UKMO and GFS at 144, both illustrate this point.

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

 

GFSOPEU12_144_1.png

 

 

 

Edited by chris55
Took out quote from a removed post.
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
13 minutes ago, chris55 said:

There is no signal for a Euro high. If you take both UKMO and GFS at 144, both illustrate this point.

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

 

GFSOPEU12_144_1.png

 

 

 

The azores high is moving East though, confirmed by the ensembles by about 240, its as flat as a pancake with Westerly winds, I would put my life on a spell of zonality now, and don't see how anyone could possibly deny it.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
21 minutes ago, chris55 said:

There is no signal for a Euro high. If you take both UKMO and GFS at 144, both illustrate this point.

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

 

GFSOPEU12_144_1.png

 

 

 

indeed chris but this is earlier than the timescale we're talking about  for zonal flow which is post day 8.  there have been some hints in recent op output that the euro heights may be more transient than the ens are seeing (and the 06z gefs built a weak mid atlantic high anomaly end week 2)

Edited by bluearmy
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Here is my evidence just incase anyone else accuses me of being a troll.

gensnh-21-1-264_yur3.png

 

gensnh-21-1-384_vpo1.png

 

The ecm charts would be similar I would suspect, the temperatures are 2M temps on the London graph, and the much bigger cluster at the end are temps that couldn't be any other synoptic than zonal.

 

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

I would keep an eye out for a mention of a possible easterly bringing snow in the 16/30 dayer. 

That's been exeters traditional way of covering a potential SSW showing in glosea - of course if they see it being certain they will publish their blog 

enough uncertainty at the moment re timing and also if any reversal looks to affect further down in the short term. 

The models seem to displace 10hpa toward nw scandi but too soon to see if  further down follows. Only watching the end of the ens members and op will show if there is a quick trop response 

these may begin to show within a couple days at day 16 (if at all)

This post was copied by someone on TWO earlier, and you were name checked BA. What's more amusing though is that they refer to Netweather users as "the other side" :D.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here is my evidence just incase anyone else accuses me of being a troll.

gensnh-21-1-264_yur3.png

 

gensnh-21-1-384_vpo1.png

 

The ecm charts would be similar I would suspect, the temperatures are 2M temps on the London graph, and the much bigger cluster at the end are temps that couldn't be any other synoptic than zonal.

 

 

Based on the charts you've posted, bang on assessment. Likelihood increased in terms of reversion to climatological mean, check. Guaranteed and nailed on at that range, especially in a winter that continues to confound for the UK? No. But I won't deny it could be  a likely outcome.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

one thing is for sure, you can be certain that the form horse will nearly always win when it starts to appear in the models. Looking ever more likely that we're drifting into the zonal soup. Such a frustrating winter! We've had everything in place pretty much, and still got nowhere (yet!).

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Nouska said:

I fear you may be right.

From the dates, the latest ECM monthly.

http://forest.jrc.ec.europa.eu/effis/applications/long-term-forecast/monthly-forecast/

We need the rain down here is about all the comment I'm prepared to make!

Mind you zonal doesn't always include the SE in terms of +ve rainfall anomalies, Bartlett's can be very dry for the SE, not that I envisage a Bartlett, FWIW, I think the euro trough will start rearing its head in FI within the next week or so due to the strat warming, ive got a feeling that we will see a significant displacement event in the strat which will give us a similar trop - surface event to the one just gone (shouldn't say that as I don't think there will be much appetite on here). we really need to see the strat warming event not fizzling out until its completely destroyed the vortex like 13, Jury out on that one for the time being.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Still very cold at the surface for england and wales at least

ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL

Is it just me or is the forecast SSW on GFS always at 300 plus hours?

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...