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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire

Looking through the postage stamps of the 06z GEFS ensembles there isn't much for coldies to get excited about. Personally i'm pretty glad about that, suffering a bit from model fatigue, seeing wonderful charts at t240 even t144 that haven't materialized has been second to none this year. Cant remember a year where we have seen so many possible cold outbreaks come to nothing. Still plenty of time of course and as we get into February we stand more of a chance historically! for now ill just be glad the models aren't showing anything and we get a break from it all.

senspanel2401.gif

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33 minutes ago, snowflakey said:

Not wishing to get to technical now, but didn't someone say that it isn't a real GH unless it has green and yellow colourings on the 500mb charts

Yes it needs to be a closed 500MB high with the 560 or above line centred over greenland 

IMG_1701.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

I'm just wondering if the GEFS can be right. There is an awful lot of warmth showing for Europe in the medium to longer term. The geographical distance and the anomaly itself is making me a little suspicious.

gefs_t2anom_16_eur_1 (2).png

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Posted
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)

Looking at the ECM 00 run is there the chance of a Scandinavian high forming in the window at 120h? 

Given the propensity for an uncertain medium term i wonder if something like this could occur. Also current cold over Europe and Scandinavia considered.

Sorry can't post chart as on my phone.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Truro
  • Weather Preferences: winter and summer
  • Location: Truro
50 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:

Looking at the ECM 00 run is there the chance of a Scandinavian high forming in the window at 120h? 

Given the propensity for an uncertain medium term i wonder if something like this could occur. Also current cold over Europe and Scandinavia considered.

Sorry can't post chart as on my phone.

This is the ECM at 120.

we have far to much energy going over the top of the high so she's only going to be pushed back into Europe at this rate.

but again, change can still happen even at 120.

IMG_2485.PNG

Edited by Argyle1980
To separate post from quote..
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Posted
  • Location: Linlithgow
  • Location: Linlithgow
2 hours ago, Nouska said:

The UKMO have recently updated their DECIDER weather regimes and in those six airmasses they identify thirty variations. The numbers 1 - 30 are listed in frequency of occurrence :-

Patterns are ordered according to their annual historic occurrences between 1850 and 2003, which was the period used to generate the patterns. Pattern 1 occurs most often annually (around 6.5% of the time) and Pattern 30 occurs least often annually (around 1.5% of the time).

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2016/new-weather-patterns-for-uk-and-europe

8669efc8dd75b4119c48f752a5d65e2e.png

I've posted this before but it is interesting for anyone who has not seen the update.

A presentation of how they make use of this in forecasting weather risks.

http://presentations.copernicus.org/EMS2016-127_presentation.pdf

 

Thanks for this Nouska. As an MOD newbie, I appreciate links to sites like this, which provide me with much needed background to the model 'conversation'.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
26 minutes ago, Argyle1980 said:

This is the ECM at 120.

we have far to much energy going over the top of the high so she's only going to be pushed back into Europe at this rate.

but again, change can still happen at happen even at 120.

IMG_2485.PNG

Not to that extent at day 5

gfsp stil showing messy changeover to zobsl with possible surprises 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Sounds like it may be something they're seeing and keeping an eye on, 

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Sounds like it may be something they're seeing and keeping an eye on,

That's how rumors start and also part of the reason we don't get updated here from IF anymore :-). I don't see a reason to read anything out of the message other than what it says.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
7 minutes ago, jvenge said:

That's how rumors start and also part of the reason we don't get updated here from IF anymore :-). I don't see a reason to read anything out of the message other than what it says.

 

 

I wouldn't say that, he'd have said no signs if there were no signs - it's obvious from that quote that some models are showing it -but not all.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
4 minutes ago, jvenge said:

That's how rumors start and also part of the reason we don't get updated here from IF anymore :-). I don't see a reason to read anything out of the message other than what it says.

 

 

Agreed, taken together those tweets just show that Chris Thompson says Michael Ventrice says an SSW is nailed on and that he (Chris) believes Dr Ventrice gets most things right. Ian then says nothing more than if indeed signals for an SSW/Final Warming do become unequivocal then the Meto will publish a blog. I believe they have done a blog on an SSW before if I remember correctly. Ian is doing nothing more than saying the Met Office will comment if the signals become unequivocal, nothing more than that.

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Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
5 minutes ago, jvenge said:

That's how rumors start and also part of the reason we don't get updated here from IF anymore :-). I don't see a reason to read anything out of the message other than what it says.

 

 

Unequivocal means leaving no doubt, unambiguous so of course there are signals there. All Ali is doing is stating the obvious. No rumour, and highly doubtful the reason IF doesn't post here anymore.  Question for experienced posters. Do the models take strat data as an input for starting conditions for their various runs? i.e 500hpa + SLP charts. Could the model confusion post 120 be caused by variations in the strat? Thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Have to agree with the above..But lets back to discussing the model outputs are showing please.

Thanks.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
38 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

Unequivocal means leaving no doubt, unambiguous so of course there are signals there. All Ali is doing is stating the obvious. No rumour, and highly doubtful the reason IF doesn't post here anymore.  Question for experienced posters. Do the models take strat data as an input for starting conditions for their various runs? i.e 500hpa + SLP charts. Could the model confusion post 120 be caused by variations in the strat? Thanks

Stating the obvious obviously isn't obvious to some in here - there are signs of a SSW but it's not all models showing it! Quite simple, and as a massive supporter of Ian F what I said isn't a rumour, unless others want to start a rumour saying he didn't say that.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

I would keep an eye out for a mention of a possible easterly bringing snow in the 16/30 dayer. 

That's been exeters traditional way of covering a potential SSW showing in glosea - of course if they see it being certain they will publish their blog 

enough uncertainty at the moment re timing and also if any reversal looks to affect further down in the short term. 

The models seem to displace 10hpa toward nw scandi but too soon to see if  further down follows. Only watching the end of the ens members and op will show if there is a quick trop response 

these may begin to show within a couple days at day 16 (if at all)

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

At 90h, GFS still adamant on a colder picture for Europe with regards to surface temperatures.

 

gfs-9-90.png

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its been very clearly modelled since last week --

 

back to today in a twist of Irony the UKMO 12z comes up with the coldest run of the year for England despite the average looking 144 chart-

possible snow over the England CET zone with very low maxima

IMG_1716.PNG

 

What sort of maxima would you expect Steve? (if that chart were to verify as seen of course)

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Virtually impossible - sub 2c at a stab-- 

as long as the Wind stays east of south...

Cheers, sorry if I put you on the spot but when you say coldest run of the year and mention the 's' word *insert winking smiley.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Excuse my ignorance, but where is the England CET zone..? I've googled it and it's no clearer....

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Excuse my ignorance, but where is the England CET zone..? I've googled it and it's no clearer....

Hadley, near Pershore, I think.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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