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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

No forcing from the strat? What's this then?-

gfsnh-10-324.png

That has not forced the trop pattern yet, or have we missed it? If it happens, then it is unlikely to force the trop till February at the earliest IMO.

Do you think it is causing forcing now? Don't see it myself.

ECM at D9 in line with the likely pattern for the last third of Jan:

ECE1-216.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

I understand where you are coming with that

Pressure rising over southern europe AGAIN! will scupper any chance of a northerly.

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Posted
  • Location: Truro
  • Weather Preferences: winter and summer
  • Location: Truro

Think it's clear to say things look like flattering out over the next couple weeks and going back to factory settings But with the musings of SSW going on means we are now looking for signs of this taking place within the Three main models and watching with interest and piecing together trends and generally taking notes and learning!

dont be to down beat people, it's the middle of January and if I'm right in saying the best time to welcome cold to our shores is January and February. 

 

Somthing i I haven't looked at recently is the sun spot count, are they still low?

Could the ECM be on to a new idea, chop and changes are coming but this looks interesting . 

Could be see pressure about to rise to our NW and with the PV on the move eastward this could be the way forward.

Wayno 

IMG_0959.PNG

Edited by Argyle1980
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
4 minutes ago, Alekos said:

Very mild ECM for UK boring euro high coming ! 

Mmmm..........

Not sure I see that in the EC Det 12z FI output to be honest.

Average temps, a bit of rain & scottish hill snow on a WNW'ly and average heights over Europe.

All thoroughly average Atlantic influenced fayre.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Just now, Banbury said:

I understand where you are coming with that

I don't. 

According to ECM we should look to February a much needed pattern change is needed the SSW could be a lifesafer who knows I'm sure it would shuffle things up. A peroid of westerlies seems inevitable nothing excessively mild. 

IMG_1671.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

The yanks have stolen our easterly - ecm day 10 chart. Eastern seaboard right through to west coast. Amazing chart!

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
11 minutes ago, IDO said:

That has not forced the trop pattern yet, or have we missed it? If it happens, then it is unlikely to force the trop till February at the earliest IMO.

Do you think it is causing forcing now? Don't see it myself.

ECM at D9 in line with the likely pattern for the last third of Jan:

ECE1-216.gif

Obviously not that-

gfsnh-10-324.png

but here's where it is now-

gfsnh-10-6-1.png

There's stratospheric forcing in play as we speak and it's forecast to get stronger. The vortex is very weak right now and it's under sustained attack from increasingly stronger warming pulses. As it was in 1991....

Edited by bobbydog
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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
9 minutes ago, AWD said:

Mmmm..........

Not sure I see that in the EC Det 12z FI output to be honest.

Average temps, a bit of rain & scottish hill snow on a WNW'ly and average heights over Europe.

All thoroughly average Atlantic influenced fayre.

Plus days Days 3,4,5,6 are far from mild we are under the uk high temps would be low minus digits at night and not much above freezing during the day also could see freezing fog persist in places far from mild as you said.

Thought i was looking at different charts like yourself when Alekos mentions Very mild uk weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Truro
  • Weather Preferences: winter and summer
  • Location: Truro
6 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Obviously not that-

gfsnh-10-324.png

but here's where it is now-

gfsnh-10-6-1.png

There's stratospheric forcing in play as we speak and it's forecast to get stronger. The vortex is very weak right now and it's under sustained attack from increasingly stronger warming pulses. As it was in 1991....

Absolutely. But this is what makes model watching so interesting. 

This next week will be a great learning curve for newbies and the experienced ones on here as such with SSW going on could end up with somthing special coming out of nowhere.

most importantly I can't see to much  energy coming out of North America anytime soon .

Wayno 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Think the references to 1991 that keep cropping up are just straw clutching. If I bake 10 cakes with the exact same ingredients and method they would still come out slightly different everytime and I believe it's the same with the atmosphere. Personally think a spell of Westerlies is likely going forward. 

Edited by Radiating Dendrite
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The ECM op is encouraging at the back end of its run in not raising euro heights. This is a trend we want to see gaining some traction in the eps 

the GEFS continue to split the flow in the medium term and that remains a possibility. However, the post day 8 charts (op and ens) continue to blown away any blocking with the Atlantic low powering across 

if we were to get the GFS se cut of jet then I wouldn't necessarily see the Atlantic powering through as a given. 

at the moment the GEFS and the eps at odds on this days 7/8

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO extended keeps high pressure over the UK so maintaining a lot of cloud and this would be thick enough for some patchy light rain

ukm2.2017012212.168.lant.troplant.prp.fc

A fairly quiet week coming up with little change day to day

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
52 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Northerly/north easterly incoming.....eventually ...maybe ?

ECMOPEU12_192_1.png

Not a bad chart, think that we could get a Northerly out of this at D12/13, but it could all start happening a lot sooner. The expected SSW would make all the difference of course. 

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

The mid-term picture has moved on a bit today and it's not particularly wintry.

Small chance of a short cold pool affecting areas for up to 24 hours next weekend with a little front-edge snow (emphasis on small). I think the cold pool will happen as all models have at least some attempt at it, but where it happens and how deep is highly questionable.

But by T192, the Atlantic looks quite a bit more dominant than at it did at this time-frame yesterday. 

gem-0-192.png?12  ECM1-192.GIF?15-0  gfs-0-192.png?12

GFS has been a little different all day, at a first glance it looks like the low might go under a small ridge to the east but that would require a correction away from the direction of travel from the other models. 

The more likely result is a correction back towards the GEM/ECM, which now means a lesser chance of a UK high and much higher chance of low pressure / SWly dominated weather for the D8-D12 period, with perhaps a storm thrown in.

In all honesty, the GEFS would suggest this period going on even longer. Aside that "wild-card" cold pool next weekend, I'd put chances of more lowland snow before February at less than 20%. Will an SSW shake things up?

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

What an incredibly boring week coming up. Not even a sunny high, looking like a week or dingy cloudy days with drizzle. No thank you! Probably turning unsettled for a time after, but the period towards the end of the month could hold some interest again. Looks like more of the waiting game. Unfortunately it also means we are only going to have around 4 good weeks worth of winter left. Time is getting to be of the essence.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Quite bizarre to see the GFS and the GEFS so resolute with some energy heading se'wards around T120hrs and the ECM going in the other direction.

Theres little support for the ECM op run in the GEFS at T144hrs and its almost as if they're reading some different background signals. I'm beginning to wonder whether this is MJO related.

It will be interesting to see the ECM ensemble spreads later and if theres a large spread here:

ECH1-120.gif

The ECM looks like it might send some energy se'wards towards those low heights over Iberia but doesn't follow through at T144hrs. Both the ECM and UKMO are similar so its probably more likely to get a GFS backtrack but we'll see tomorrow.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
10 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Yes but if you bake 10 Victoria sponge cakes, they will all still be Victoria sponge cakes. You won't end up with any Yorkshire puddings....

Yes... but not every easterly ends up like 1991 either. Even if we do end up with an easterly at some point it could quite easily be nothing more than mediocre uppers and drizzle. 

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
23 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

What an incredibly boring week coming up. Not even a sunny high, looking like a week or dingy cloudy days with drizzle. No thank you! Probably turning unsettled for a time after, but the period towards the end of the month could hold some interest again. Looks like more of the waiting game. Unfortunately it also means we are only going to have around 4 good weeks worth of winter left. Time is getting to be of the essence.

People seem to have forgotten the MO winter prediction which was a mild/wet second half to winter after a more wintery first half. A boring January it will be, surprise surprise it was written on the cards.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Can we stick to model discussion, no more cake talk as frankly it is far too late for cake. 

Also discussion needs to be more than just a one line rant or moan please, we have a thread for that already. Thank you.

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