Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[feb1991blizzard]

I will leave you with this - the second successive remarkable 12z ECM eps graph, London just stays around freezing throughout next 15 days with extremely high confidence.

 

PS: we really would be in business if we could shift them significantly further down the graph!!!!

[snowbunting]

The hunt continues that easterly was always going to be grasping at straws. You might want to draw your attention to another nly outbreak in 9 days time as the PV finally moves out of Canada. Ive seen it a few times now and the NAO forecasts would support it. The ensembles support that kind of setup too albeit slightly different times. 

 

Edited January 15, 2017 by snowbunting

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, Jonathan Evans said:

After next weeks anticyclonic activity - have it on good authority that we are going zonal into following week - lasting at least two weeks. That takes us into February and the last chance saloon.

That's a bold prediction. How do you come to that conclusion?

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Whats all this feasible business? The UKMO splits the shortwaves so what the GFS does initially is hardly outlandish and given the evolution relies on that split then its not exactly plucked a solution out of thin air. I don't have my doubts re feasible but just its low margin for error.

 

Was thinking that about the ukmo when it came out

fwiw, the eps remain on the same course with pos NAO now within the day 10 timescale

the gfsp 06z was also a cold run in the 8/12 day period. Those windows are still ajar but they aren't the favoured solution 

Edited January 14, 2017 by bluearmy

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Whats all this feasible business? The UKMO splits the shortwaves so what the GFS does initially is hardly outlandish and given the evolution relies on that split then its not exactly plucked a solution out of thin air. I don't have my doubts re feasible but just its low margin for error.

 

Feasible, likely, possibility, probability - they are just words at the end of the day. The key word is "trend" and unfortunately, the trend has not been good today.

[bigdog1]

a lot of negativity being given on the present models we have tonight I think we have been led right up the garden path don't close the gate as we will be coming back through very shortly

 

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Was thinking that about the ukmo when it came out

fwiw, the eps remain on the same course with pos NAO now within the day 10 timescale

the gfsp 06z was also a cold run in the 8/12 day period. Those windows are still ajar but they aren't the favoured solution 

I would prefer the 12z and 00z to be showing the split flow.

[chris55]

 

GFS 18z is feasible. And not to far off this mornings ECM 00z run.

as nick has said it's the phasing, or lack of, those two lows in the Atlantic.

Keep them separate and you have a good chance of something colder developing, with the ridge building in between and yes even a north easterly. 

18z throws a shortwave off the main PV lobe wich retrogresses around the south of the high advecting the cold our way. 

Here is the 00z ECM to compare to the 18z GFS. Not identical obviously but both with the same idea.

 

 

[Paul_1978]

23 minutes ago, Jonathan Evans said:

Please bin 18z evolution past T96 - it simply isn't feasible - onwards to the 00z runs UK MET in particular 

So can you advise us why you think it "simply isn't feasible" please? A bit of depth and context would be most useful as a lot of your posts leave us scratching our heads. 

[nick sussex]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Was thinking that about the ukmo when it came out

fwiw, the eps remain on the same course with strong pos NAO now within the day 10 timescale

the gfsp 06z was also a cold run in the 8/12 day period. Those windows are still ajar but they aren't the favoured solution

Yes it might be the lower probability solution, we'll have to wait and see but the UKMO backs the GFS in terms of overall set up at T144hrs. It might be gone in the morning but theres quite a change coming upstream and with the MJO on the move I'm happy to wait a few more runs.

[Ali1977]

Some crazy ENS to 180, PV obviously not happy in Canada.

at 216 there are other cold solutions,  and  such a crazy NH that I don't think any computer would know what the heck is going on beyond this period just yet 

Edited January 14, 2017 by Ali1977

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

So can you advise us why you think it "simply isn't feasible" please? A bit of depth and context would be most useful as a lot of your posts leave us scratching our heads.

I don't think JE likes the GFS much even though it delivered the same overall evolution as the next coming of Christ model the UKMO upto T144hrs! So basically UKMO delivers it feasible, GFS not feasible. The whole evolution stands or falls on the split shortwave so perhaps JE thinks the UKMO isn't feasible either. Confusing isn't it! lol

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Some crazy ENS to 180, PV obviously not happy in Canada.

We know the vortex is off to Siberia - the issue is the neg NAO in the short term looks like being west based and thereafter, the epo drops back neg and drives a significant love of the vortex back to nw Greenland 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We know the vortex is off to Siberia - the issue is the neg NAO in the short term looks like being west based and thereafter, the epo drops back neg and drives a significant love of the vortex back to nw Greenland 

 

But for how long Blue? All things considered, it doesn't look a sustainable set up to me in the long run. It's just as probable we're seeing an over reaction to the signal to drop a lobe of vortex back to the Canadian sector- wouldn't be the first time.

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We know the vortex is off to Siberia - the issue is the neg NAO in the short term looks like being west based and thereafter, the epo drops back neg and drives a significant love of the vortex back to nw Greenland 

 

Yes FI looking very poor for the UK, no background strat/MJO etc to help us out at the minute neither !! We need some "significant love" from Greenland in the way of cold; not a lobe into the NW of it!! Ha

Surely beyond the medium range things could change though, as they have when we've been modelled a decent cold spell!! 

Edited January 14, 2017 by Ali1977

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Yes FI looking very poor for the UK, no background strat/MJO etc to help us out at the minute neither !! We need some "significant love" from Greenland in the way of cold; not a lobe into the NW of it!! Ha

No strat help?

[chris55]

Lots of options at 168 on the ensembles no clear signal, control on the same page as the op. Some cold, some very cold, some easterly, more westerly......confused. However in the long term most go for big south westerly waft with the Atlantic barrelling in, not sure if this an overreaction to the background signal mind.

Edited January 14, 2017 by chris55

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Lots of options at 168 on the ensembles no clear signal, control on the same page as the op. Some cold, some very cold, some easterly, more westerly......confused. However in the long term most go for big south westerly waft with the Atlantic barrelling in, not sure if this an overreaction to the background signal mind.

Most of them offer a perturbed trop vortex though, some highly so. Overriding signal in the first few I've looked at for a potential -AO which is miles better than a big purple blob sat over the pole.

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

No strat help?

Yes apart from a possible SSW sorry , which hopefully happens!!

[Jason M]

Its one of those situations where the destination looks increasingly set (i.e. slug part 2), but the route is still to be decided and there maybe a window of opportunity days 8-12 for something interesting.

Of course, ensemble suites can flip so don't take the above too literally, but the drumbeat for pressure to rise to our south gets louder with each set of runs and the 18z GEFS continue the trend imho.

Don't get the whole 18z is rubbish argument. If peeps think that, why not stay away until the morning runs?

 

[stewfox]

40 minutes ago, bigdog1 said:

a lot of negativity being given on the present models we have tonight I think we have been led right up the garden path don't close the gate as we will be coming back through very shortly

 

I don't know why there is so much negativity with all these colder solutions being thrown out and the GFS chopping and changing every 6hrs.

One minutes we are told  micro scale changes could make all the difference, the next you can now write off January or we are back looking for 'signals' for February. The cold weather of 1947 didn't even start till 21 Jan and it hit 57f in some places on 16 Jan 1947. Glad this forum wasn't around then.

If I was seeing 8-12c across the whole of western Europe up to T240 I would be more worried. 

18 z Next Thurs 3pm max temps 2/3c in the south and -5c max in Paris as a max.

12Z Next thurs max temps 4/5c in south

14 Jan 1947 south westerlies mid 50s in some places

21 Jan 1947 3 months of winter

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/7/l/jan1947.pdf

 

Edited January 15, 2017 by stewfox

[MR EXTREMES]

More runs needed absolutely no doubt there's alot going on and it's going to take at least till Monday evening.

Still seeing northern block taking hold Greenland is where I'd favour.

 

[StretfordEnd1996]

Ahh, welcome back to the frame GFS! 

 

The thing is - a lot of people do mention of how the GFS is useless past D6 and so on and so forth which I fully understand and it is true but end of the day, I love watching the models roll through, I love Winter and I love snow. I haven't had the best day of model watching today but at least there is something a bit more promising to end it on the GFS. 

 

It's like watching a football team against someone three divisions above you - you are playing well all game but you need a goal and you know the opposition (mild weather) is most likely going to win - but hey, enjoy it while you can? 

 

 

 

I have even included the precipitation chart - as pointless as it is but look I'm just reading the charts and reporting back. 

 

Another thing is this - I understand people who say things like 'the GFS/ECM has been constant let down all Winter' but the thing is, the weather and the charts don't have a memory. sooner or later it will show something cold and it will come off, let's just wait and watch for now 

[TEITS]

Im late viewing the models tonight.

Not sure why some are so quick to dismiss the 18Z. I said this morning we could see either very mild SW,lys or bitterly cold NE,lys and that is exactly what the models have shown today. The uncertainty is so fasinating that im personally loving it.

Note how the GEFS control takes the low ESE.

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-180.png?18

What GP said a few days ago is ringing in my ears with regards to eventually returning to an E,ly.

Personally I have no idea but I wouldn't rule out the 18Z just based on previous disappointments this winter.

 

[Jason M]

13 minutes ago, stewfox said:

I don't know why there is so much negativity with all these colder solutions being thrown out and the GFS chopping and changing every 6hrs.

One minutes we are told  micro scale changes could make all the difference, the next you can now write off January or we are back looking for 'signals' for February. The cold weather of 1947 didn't even start till 21 Jan.

 

Oh dear, you know we are in trouble when the 1947 references start coming out . Mind you, last year they started in November!

If we take into account 22 runs (opp, control and 20 GEFS) I counted 18 with height rises over or around Iberia post 300 hours. Doesn't mean it will happen as long way out, but its certainly a strong signal.

 

Edited January 15, 2017 by Jason M