Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[blizzard81]

How come the ecm ens haven't updated?

[bobbydog]

GFS is back in the game...

Edited January 14, 2017 by bobbydog

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Well a cold and likely snowy set up by day 10 on the latest 18Z GFS. What could possibly go wrong in the evolution?

Can't believe you are getting sucked in by an 18z run! 

Edited January 14, 2017 by blizzard81

[chionomaniac]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Can't believe you are getting sucked in by a 18z run! 

Err, sarcasm, lol.

 

[Man With Beard]

Just now, bobbydog said:

GFS is back in the game...

A real pub run classic! If all the 00Zs follow the same pattern, I'll be astounded. This run pretty much out on its own ... for now!

[bobbydog]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Can't believe you are getting sucked in by a 18z run! 

Here we go, "18z" blah blah, "pub run" blah blah....

[Fozfoster]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

GFS is back in the game...

That old chestnut................ T240. 

Does look good for imby though:)

[TomDav]

Great 18z run

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

Here we go, "18z" blah blah, "pub run" blah blah....

Believe it at your peril!

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Err, sarcasm, lol.

 

Talk about covering all bases lol

[nick sussex]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Can't believe you are getting sucked in by a 18z run!

 Its very fraught around the T120hrs mark, no split shortwave no chance of cold, we're reliant on a high pressure cell forming to the nw. Any high pressure towards Canada and west negative NAO does zip for us, all it does is leech the life force out of our own high to the north.

[numbnutts(uk)]

5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

GFS is back in the game...

yey more straws to clutch lol

 

[bobbydog]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Believe it at your peril!

I don't 'believe' it, I just thought we had quashed the 'missing data' myth by now.

[blizzard81]

Just now, bobbydog said:

I don't 'believe' it, I just thought we had quashed the 'missing data' myth by now.

Don't know about missing data, just dish water trash = most 18z runs lol

[bobbydog]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Don't know about missing data, just dish water trash = most 18z runs lol

Can you explain why you think that?

[nick sussex]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Don't know about missing data, just dish water trash = most 18z runs lol

I think you're being a bit hard on the GFS 18hrs runs, if you get the split shortwave then the evolution isn't way out there. That's the issue though and why I'd put a red warning on this run for very low margin for error and liable to cause undue mental harm on coldies! lol

[blizzard81]

Just now, bobbydog said:

Can you explain why you think that?

Oh, just 15 years of watching it's output

[The Weather Dragon]

Please bin 18z evolution past T96 - it simply isn't feasible - onwards to the 00z runs UK MET in particular 

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Oh, just 15 years of watching it's output

And you think that in 15 years technology hasn't advanced and they haven't upgraded the model several times over?

[Ali1977]

The 18z is no different from the others, pub run/Stella runs etc was due to its timing not its drunken express like Synoptics every now and then.  Whilst I'd be surprised if this king of evolution happens, it is one of many possibilities. 

SSW type strat still being forecast and slowly moving forward from extreme FI, hoping to see some METO tweets on this - but they did predict front loaded Winter so they weren't expecting one going on that!!!

Edited January 14, 2017 by Ali1977

[snowingtequila]

1 minute ago, Jonathan Evans said:

Please bin 18z evolution past T96 - it simply isn't feasible - onwards to the 00z runs UK MET in particular 

Surely all runs are feasible, likely is another issue.

[blizzard81]

Just now, Jonathan Evans said:

Please bin 18z evolution past T96 - it simply isn't feasible - onwards to the 00z runs UK MET in particular 

Words of wisdom. The 18z is nearly always wrong and that is being kind! If it had the right handle, it would not do an about turn to mild in the later stages. Never trust the 18z if you want to preserve your sanity.

[A.J]

best to just discuss what the models are actually showing as opposed to how one particular run is always rubbish, consumes too much beer, is a sentient being with feelings etc etc...last time I researched, the model outputs were computer models and not binge drinking advanced lifeforms prone to emotional meltdowns

Edited January 14, 2017 by ajpoolshark

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

And you think that in 15 years technology hasn't advanced and they haven't upgraded the model several times over?

Don't get me started on the advancement of the last 15 years lol!

[nick sussex]

Whats all this feasible business? The UKMO splits the shortwaves so what the GFS does initially is hardly outlandish and given the evolution relies on that split then its not exactly plucked a solution out of thin air. I don't have my doubts re feasible but just its low margin for error.