Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ens

      

A very strong positive anomaly over central/eastern Canada with a trough in the Atlantic, the ECM suite seems even less keen on developing a northerly into week 2 with above average heights persisting near the UK, the Euro negative anomalies look to weaken with positive ones appearing towards the Azores moving north east, this would suggest as others have said to bring a return to milder conditions with a more typical west to south west flow albeit still dry in the south. All we can hope is that we can either shift the pattern west or east (Westwards correction could mean another Scandi high attempt as the Azores high can ridge more favourably or east to bring that trough over the UK or east of us.

No point dressing things up, the output currently is disappointing with a fairly slack jet in the Atlantic sector which unfortunately is positioned poorly for the UK. That said any mobile weather has not lasted long before swinging to another solution so lets hope this will be the case this time... unless it is another UK/Northern Euro high again....

Edited January 14, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[phil nw.]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM now coming on board the mild zonal train advertised by the ensembles lately, it was only a matter of time before we saw this type of output.

Yes week 2 is heading for a +ve NAO pattern.Unwelcome consistency from the gefs in that we now have had several runs showing a slide towards the westerlies now from around days 10/11.These are the clusterings.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cslp&HH=252&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

ECM now starting to come into view for this change.These were the 00z ens from both models for London-2m temperatures

Looking at the state of the meridonal Atlantic jet for the coming few days

 

and it's disappointing that the best we can get is a UK high.We just can't seem to get enough amplification again-seems to be the story of the Winter so far.Mid-latitude blocking,dry chilly -relentless.

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

 

This is the same Ec/Glosea that had a cold December? Pinch of salt. 

[The Enforcer]

30 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The result would probably be reinforcement of the UK high into D9-D10 but with more of an Atlantic feed.

Worth bookmarking this for a review on Monday 23rd Jan.

[booferking]

 

9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

It seems EC/GloSea are good at forecasting mild zonal when on the horizon but not so good for blocked cold patterens that we were supposed to have quite similar to gfs.

Edited January 14, 2017 by booferking

[Alekos]

6 minutes ago, snowice said:

This is the same Ec/Glosea that had a cold December? Pinch of salt. 

I find from my research that when models showing long distance positive N.A.O they are often right , but not when showing reverse at same time ! 

[ribster]

37 minutes ago, Alekos said:

Really sorry for UK ! I notice that the charts that show Northern jet coming strong always happen 

Don't be sorry, it's the weather for goodness sake. I seem to remember a little while back the same people saying the outlook was dismal, then the models started showing something interesting from nowhere. Then it's all quickly forgotten what was said. I've seen 'nailed' forecasts, patterns, evolutions, call it what you will - blow up at 72 hrs, so anything beyond that is to be consumed with a large pinch of salt.

Edited January 14, 2017 by ribster

[Jonan92]

In the Spanish forum we are having some difficulties to understand what happens between t72 and t96 at ECM in relation to 850hpa temperatures

It seems to be a big change for just 24h, even more when other models don't dissipate the cold from Europeo so quicliky (GFS, GEM, Arpege, Coamps, JMA..)

My guess is that SE winds are in injected into the continent. Any idea of what could ECM be modelling here?

[MR EXTREMES]

Slow burner plenty of changes to come Greenland block still something were likely to see in time.

And the current set up likely to stick around for a bit.

Still loads of winter to look forwards to.

If I remember rightly feb 2008 brought a nice snowy spell low solar minimum kicking in nicely although we seen new spot count starting but extremely low and likely to decrease.

I've found ssw also seem to pop around solar minimums although not exactly model related.

Most models show the heights over or just to south uk so chilly for sure some frost fog.

Although I don't believe the current block will sink to south I reckon at some point it will drift into a better location for colder weather.

I wait till Mondays 12z.

[Seasonality]

17 minutes ago, Alekos said:

Really sorry for UK ! I notice that the charts that show Northern jet coming strong always happen 

Yes it is really bad for the UK. Charts like this say it all. Frozen Europe, mild uk.

 

[Snowman.]

Maybe leave the nitpicking on models to yourself. They're forecasting tools and like a forecast they won't always be accurate. 

[chris55]

10 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

ECM ens

      

A very strong positive anomaly over central/eastern Canada with a trough in the Atlantic, the ECM suite seems even less keen on developing a northerly into week 2 with above average heights persisting near the UK, the Euro negative anomalies look to weaken with positive ones appearing towards the Azores moving north east, this would suggest as others have said to bring a return to milder conditions with a more typical west to south west flow albeit still dry in the south. All we can hope is that we can either shift the pattern west or east (Westwards correction could mean another Scandi high attempt as the Azores high can ridge more favourably or east to bring that trough over the UK or east of us.

No point dressing things up, the output currently is disappointing with a fairly slack jet in the Atlantic sector which unfortunately is positioned poorly for the UK. That said any mobile weather has not lasted long before swinging to another solution so lets hope this will be the case this time... unless it is another UK/Northern Euro high again....

They are the 00z means.

And you can see how a ridge to our north is not out of the question as the signal is pretty muted either way for our patch. 

Obviously what you describe is more likely though, with a sw element as the lows exiting the USA, even though are further south initially, still make their way to the north of the weak Azores anomaly. 

And I have a feeling the 12z mean may lean that way.

[Captain Shortwave]

11 minutes ago, chris55 said:

They are the 00z means.

And you can see how a ridge to our north is not out of the question as the signal is pretty muted either way for our patch. 

Obviously what you describe is more likely though, with a sw element as the lows exiting the USA, even though are further south initially, still make their way to the north of the weak Azores anomaly. 

And I have a feeling the 12z mean may lean that way.

Whoops, it has been a long weekend for me, so I totally missed that the ensembles have not come out on meteociel. 

Or anywhere else it seems.

Maybe it is for the best......

Edited January 14, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[booferking]

Hey @Summer Sun would you have the 168hr chart for uk model please.

[Arthur1882]

Looks to me like SSW or bust now for this winter

But massive credit to the UKMO, it really has been the star performer this winter 

iIt showed no interest in the easterly that ECM were obsessed with and the fact ECM has completely backtracked and gone zonal this evening shows UKMO is the one to take seriously 

[The Enforcer]

As far as SSW are concerned, these should not be dismissed out of hand, but should certainly be caveated:

1. It's (usually) a forecasted event and therefore the first hurdle, as with any climatic modelling, is whether the event actually occurs as predicted;

2. If it does occur, then the next test is whether the SSW has the desired impact;

3. If it does have the desired impact then does that impact occur in the right place to deliver a cold synoptic pattern to the UK; and

4. If the cold synoptic pattern emerges, there are no rogue mild sectors that make it rain anyway.

Taking all of the above into consideration, from local experience, I estimate the odds of a forecasted SSW actually resulting in a significant UK snow event as being about 1 in 10. With that in mind, it's possible to take a more pragmatic view and reap the rewards when a SSW does work.

[cheese]

41 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Yes it is really bad for the UK. Charts like this say it all. Frozen Europe, mild uk.

 

Mild Scandinavia as well. Very mild winter for them. The cold they are supposed to get has been in the Balkans and Central Europe instead.

[Seasonality]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

This has 95% always been the case with the NWP- I've said it before and been shouted down for my troubles but it's mostly true. No idea why it's the case. 

Surely because the UK has a mild climate? Not exactly rocket science or some kind of genius insight. Just reversion to the mean. (not meant as a dig at you but if more people accepted the reality of the UK climate, ie mild maritime, then there would be less disappointment and more pleasure from the scraps of "cold" that appear)

[The Weather Dragon]

After next weeks anticyclonic activity - have it on good authority that we are going zonal into following week - lasting at least two weeks. That takes us into February and the last chance saloon.

[Summer Sun]

44 minutes ago, booferking said:

Hey @Summer Sun would you have the 168hr chart for uk model please.

Yep high pressure remains

[Alekos]

5 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Surely because the UK has a mild climate? Not exactly rocket science or some kind of genius insight. Just reversion to the mean. (not meant as a dig at you but if more people accepted the reality of the UK climate, ie mild maritime, then there would be less disappointment and more pleasure from the scraps of "cold" that appear)

But don't think was always like this ? Many more cold spells and snow here is n Greece over the last 20 years !

[Seasonality]

8 minutes ago, cheese said:

Mild Scandinavia as well. Very mild winter for them. The cold they are supposed to get has been in the Balkans and Central Europe instead.

You forgot the Iberian peninsula and France on that chart. Hasn't been an exceptional winter for central Europe either, chilly but not notably so. Cold weather isn't exactly unusual for Central and Eastern Europe. Agree that Scandi seems mild though. And very cold for Balkan peninsula and even Southern Italy recently.

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please keep on topic and use the moan/winter thread for chit chat.

Thanks.

Edited January 14, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[snowsummer]

3 minutes ago, Jonathan Evans said:

After next weeks anticyclonic activity - have it on good authority that we are going zonal into following week - lasting at least two weeks. That takes us into February and the last chance saloon.

Im sure you are right, but as im still very much learning could you please explain to me how to spot that from the current charts available. Thank you