Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Banbury]

5 minutes ago, karyo said:

ECM has saved the worst charts for the end! Back to euro high territory.

Not far away from the METO extended update which talks about a gradual descent into mild weather from the west.

It does but the Mets return is well into February

[blizzard81]

I don't know about anyone else but this winter has been the most bizarre in terms of model watching. Both the GFS and ecm were both steadfast in showing some form of Iceland high in the 7 day timescale.  Now the ecm shows the mirror opposite. The trouble with this winter is that the mild runs always verify and the cold ones don't.  Very frustrating. 

[karyo]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I wouldn't lose too much sleep about the ECM op it will probably change again in the morning and never a time to trust any output when theres big changes occurring over the USA.

I would be a bit more hopeful if the models were in disagreement but with at least one of them showing a wintry outlook. As it stands, they have all moved away from anything promising today.

[Jonan92]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

I don't know about anyone else but this winter has been the most bizarre in terms of model watching. Both the GFS and ecm were both steadfast in showing some form of Iceland high in the 7 day timescale.  Now the ecm shows the mirror opposite. The trouble with this winter is that the mild runs always verify and the cold ones don't.  Very frustrating. 

I have a feeling that recently there are much more small atlantic lows in blocking situations, avoiding clean solutions

[Tamara]

Its a pity that the same very few suspects as previously continue to troll and not even represent the post properly they are aiming the trolling at.

The "starting pistol" referred to this rise in frictional torque

Which effectively was an amplification signal from the tropics which took the  typical wavelength time to transfer as a poleward eddy through to a mountain torque feature in the extra tropics - and as a result the cold snap we have seen this week.  The post at the time was followed by a subsequent one actually questioned the amount of ammunition that was present in terms of amplification to provide something more sustained than has been seen

But lets twist the words to avoid the actual facts in order to have a dig, for having a digs sake instead...

We received, synoptically, what was suggested on the tin. Best deal with it.

The good news is that the recent starting gun was just for a training circuit....

A much bigger signal and torque rise is one to watch when the tropical signal extracts itself from the Indian Ocean - with MJO 30 to 60 day periodicity suggesting something much livelier to shake up the pattern doldrums

@feb1991blizzard   Here - not yet latest updated though  

 

Edited January 14, 2017 by Tamara

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, Banbury said:

It does but the Mets return is well into February

That's a good point. For some reason the models want to speed up the return to mild. Maybe they have overeacted to a signal.

[Blizzardof82]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM now coming on board the mild zonal train advertised by the ensembles lately, it was only a matter of time before we saw this type of output.

Where are the zonal charts? I am confused as to me the Atlantic looks dead and it is far from zonal.

[Dennis]

any thoughts about wave2 ? Its working a few days now

I think some models realy dont know what the outcome will be

[Ali1977]

I hope this winter isn't hanging in the balance of a SSW again - still six weeks left but looks like the next 2 aren't looking ideal. Things change however, this next week was meant to be freezing down south according to some models. A week off and I'm sure charts will start the ball rolling again!!

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Jonan92 said:

I have a feeling that recently there are much more small atlantic lows in blocking situations, avoiding clean solutions

Good point and this is something I have noticed. I personally think it is to do with the cold sst's in the mid Atlantic. 

[Jason M]

ECM a bit quicker the GEFS in bringing back the Iberian / euro heights but the signal is gaining in strength. Its still a long way out on the GEFS (day 12 onwards) but its not a good trend that's for sure.

[karlos1983]

28 minutes ago, Tamara said:

Its a pity that the same very few suspects as previously continue to troll and not even represent the post properly they are aiming the trolling at.

The "starting pistol" referred to this rise in frictional torque

Which effectively was an amplification signal from the tropics which took the  typical wavelength time to transfer as a poleward eddy through to a mountain torque feature in the extra tropics - and as a result the cold snap we have seen this week.  The post at the time was followed by a subsequent one actually questioned the amount of ammunition that was present in terms of amplification to provide something more sustained than has been seen

But lets twist the words to avoid the actual facts in order to have a dig, for having a digs sake instead...

We received, synoptically, what was suggested on the tin. Best deal with it.

It must make the pain of a failed cold spell easier to deal with... quite remarkable if you ask me.

especially as in 10 days time no doubt the models will be showing us another route to cold, and all faith will be placed on them with a bit of "gut" feeling for good measure. 

Edited January 14, 2017 by karlos1983

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Blizzardof82 said:

Where are the zonal charts? I am confused as to me the Atlantic looks dead and it is far from zonal.

The ECM, see I differ from others with my definition of zonality, topplers, PM blasts, indeed any amplification that still has a fairly fast moving pattern around the mid lattitudes is zonal, a toppler moves quickly on as suggested by the name, to be a true meridianal pattern is one that has a stationary 3 or 4 or more wave pattern, one over our side involves HP to the norh of us sitting there for days, maybe weeks and giving us a reverse flow, topplers are Northerly flows but within the overall zonal pattern.

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Tamara said:

Its a pity that the same very few suspects as previously continue to troll and not even represent the post properly they are aiming the trolling at.

The "starting pistol" referred to this rise in frictional torque

Which effectively was an amplification signal from the tropics which took the  typical wavelength time to transfer as a poleward eddy through to a mountain torque feature in the extra tropics - and as a result the cold snap we have seen this week.  The post at the time was followed by a subsequent one actually questioned the amount of ammunition that was present in terms of amplification to provide something more sustained than has been seen

But lets twist the words to avoid the actual facts in order to have a dig, for having a digs sake instead...

We received, synoptically, what was suggested on the tin. Best deal with it.

Just wondering what the mountain torque charts are looking like please.

[Blizzardof82]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The ECM, see I differ from others with my definition of zonality, topplers, PM blasts, indeed any amplification that still has a fairly fast moving pattern around the mid lattitudes is zonal, a toppler moves quickly on as suggested by the name, to be a true meridianal pattern is one that has a stationary 3 or 4 or more wave pattern, one over our side involves HP to the norh of us sitting there for days, maybe weeks and giving us a reverse flow, topplers are Northerly flows but within the overall zonal pattern.

Cheers for your insight, always learning.

[blizzard81]

13 minutes ago, Tamara said:

Its a pity that the same very few suspects as previously continue to troll and not even represent the post properly they are aiming the trolling at.

The "starting pistol" referred to this rise in frictional torque

Which effectively was an amplification signal from the tropics which took the  typical wavelength time to transfer as a poleward eddy through to a mountain torque feature in the extra tropics - and as a result the cold snap we have seen this week.  The post at the time was followed by a subsequent one actually questioned the amount of ammunition that was present in terms of amplification to provide something more sustained than has been seen

But lets twist the words to avoid the actual facts in order to have a dig, for having a digs sake instead...

We received, synoptically, what was suggested on the tin. Best deal with it.

Tamara,  you have been spot on this winter.  Don't let the trolls get you down. If it wasn't for you and I took the models at face value,  I would be tearing my hair out right now. Your understanding and interpretation of meteorology are second to none in my opinion. 

[Chris K]

Some posts in here containing a certain type of criticism of long term forecasts are very unhelpful. They only seem to appear when the unfavourable patterns begin to make a comeback with claims that forecasts are way off with lack of evidence to back it up. Why not have a go at providing your own analysis to counter theirs? 

I've said it before that the smallest of changes in a larger scale synoptic evolution can mean massive differences to the UK. Unfortunately everything has to go right for us to see any prolonged cold and snowy weather. More often than not we will end up with glancing blows or fails. I am guilty of it as well, but too much faith can be put into charts for 7-10 days time.

Long term forecasts are a probabilty and analysis tool to seek the most likely evolutions. And even when there is good agreement for something, if there is still even the smallest chance of it not occuring, it sometimes won't. The chaos of meteorology for a speck of space the UK takes up sitting on the edge of a large ocean eh?

Edited January 14, 2017 by Chris K

[Captain Shortwave]

So as we move through this weekend to our soft breakdown of our colder Arctic maritime spell, we do see the chance of snow briefly in the east of the UK as the front moves south through the UK.

   

There could be a brief dusting before it turns milder.

Moving on we now face a repeat of just a week or two ago with a cold easterly grazing the south east and then being pushed away.

January is turning into one of those frustrating months, though at least the initial north/north westerly delivered something so at least we haven't seen a complete bust.

Moving on the background signals continue to promise but can we get some serious cold into the UK? 

      

Hmm we see that Scandi trough develop in week 2 but any cold air at the moment is intercepted and swept east and we enter a more unsettled spell. Of course at this time frame it could change greatly if we can hold the upstream pattern back and allow cold air to successfully head south into western Europe.

 

[The Enforcer]

I think the overriding message is this: don't take the models, ensembles or means at face value for pattern until about T+72 and detail until T+6. With this in mind, it is fairly clear how much weight can be given to mild zonal charts at T+240, when there are 14/34 opportunities for the pattern to change and 20/40 opportunities for the detail to change.

Edited January 14, 2017 by The Enforcer

[Cheshire Freeze]

50 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

 The trouble with this winter is that the mild runs always verify and the cold ones don't.  Very frustrating. 

This has 95% always been the case with the NWP- I've said it before and been shouted down for my troubles but it's mostly true. No idea why it's the case. 

[Dean E]

If you live anywhere in the North today, you may have noticed it wasn't as clear and dry as models predicted. Turned out to be quite a cool day up there with cloud cover, which was not predicted. Just goes to show, even +6hr or less can be completely wrong.

The point of me saying that was don't take anything past +120hr as post value. Models are having a real hard time right now and if you are following every outcome, I'm not surprised people are feeling 'hard done by'. This outlook needs a break and I think a lot of people do too!

Anyway, There is potential in the models this evening and there is still not an Atlantic onslaught. Incredibly different winter to what we've had previously, something that will be noteworthy for that, I bet.

[Man With Beard]

9 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

I think the overriding message is this: don't take the models, ensembles or means at face value for pattern until about T+72 and detail until T+6. With this in mind, it is fairly clear how much weight can be given to mild zonal charts at T+240, when there are 14/34 opportunities for the pattern to change and 20/40 opportunities for the detail to change.

I'm not sure that will be the case by next weekend. I've had a skim through todays ECM, GFS and GEM ops and ensemble means and I was surprised to see broad agreement on some general themes - strong trough to the west of Iceland, strong ridging in front of it. Only this morning's ECM op significantly bucked that trend. The result would probably be reinforcement of the UK high into D9-D10 but with more of an Atlantic feed. The boundaries of the pattern would allow a temporary northerly at the beginning of the period (e.g. GEM) or a touch more unsettled in the NW of the UK (ECM tonight).

How can I be so confident? Well I think it's just occurred to me that, over the course of the winter so far, every day there has been at least one op or mean run from the ECM, GFS or GEM that has proved correct for the UK at D8. And if you take the same view with these runs, there isn't much divergence on what I've described at all so this would be 9/10 likely to be correct.

[Alekos]

Really sorry for UK ! I notice that the charts that show Northern jet coming strong always happen 

[The Enforcer]

22 minutes ago, SnowMania said:

If you live anywhere in the North today, you may have noticed it wasn't as clear and dry as models predicted. Turned out to be quite a cool day up there with cloud cover, which was not predicted. Just goes to show, even +6hr or less can be completely wrong.

Yes. Thursday and Sunday charts mostly looked marginal, but Friday and Saturday were always solid embedded Arctic air, so getting rain today was highly disappointing. I can't help feeling that had the light easterly predicted for a while for early/mid next week come to fruition, by T+0, the promise of snow would have been replaced by yet more rain. If there is even the slightest possibility that it could rain, it will rain.

Edited January 14, 2017 by The Enforcer

[Seasonality]

Odd disconnect between GFS and ECM output for Warsaw this coming week. 12 degrees difference in 2m temps in a weeks time. Cold and minus double digit minima on GFS with most of Europe in the freezer with strong ensemble support. Insipid just above freezing on ECM. The models are all over the place at the moment.