Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[booferking]

One think that has a history of repeating itself if there is a Major warm up East side states, (thaw) January.  This usually leads to a potent cold spell early February in the states leading to a strong jet exiting the ESB which could be bad news for us start of February. It would be ideally to grab are chance now. 

 UK model looks better at 144 compared to gfs,

Edited January 14, 2017 by booferking

[bluearmy]

Just now, booferking said:

One think that has a history of repeating itself if there is a Major warm up East side states, (thaw) January.  This usually leads to a potent cold spell early February in the states leading to a strong jet exiting the ESB which could be bad news for us start of February. It would be ideally to grab are chance now. 

Better hope there is N Atlantic block in place before that happens then! 

[karyo]

6 minutes ago, booferking said:

 UK model looks better at 144 compared to gfs,

Why does the UKMO look better? I am not so keen on those two Atlantic lows linking to be honest. All and all a very messy picture.

[booferking]

Just now, karyo said:

Why does the UKMO look better? I am not so keen on those two Atlantic lows linking to be honest. All and all a very messy picture.

GFS Control at 138hr looks messy right almost same as uk model with the 2 lows then goes onto this at 144hr & 180hr

[StretfordEnd1996]

Yes I agree I can't quite see how this chart for next Friday from the UKMO is an improvement over the GFS but then again the two charts are a touch different to each other in regards to the high pressure; the GFS has it going further North and East compared to the UKMO 

 

But both charts do show the same general outline regarding the situation to the West of us and up in the Arctic. 

[nick sussex]

Most of the GEFS clearly show why I hate west negative NAO's. The blocks in the wrong place and many end up phasing shortwaves in the Atlantic to the west of the UK. If its going to be west based we need it further west with a more amplified troughing in the west Atlantic.

The UKMO isn't as good as  its morning effort which had a better chance of pulling the high nw. So its down to the ECM now to stop the rot.

Edited January 14, 2017 by nick sussex

[chris55]

Im finding this period of the winters NWP quite fascinating. Its so quite in here, and thats because we are hanging about in no mans land in the models.

No raging PV, no strong Scandi or Greenland high, hence no clear signal for our patch in the mid term, it does look like we may well get some king of invigorated jet towards the end of the month but for now its a game of chasing a slower pattern which may or may not fall in our favour.

So while we hang about, GFS is bringing in some much colder surface conditions towards the second half of next week, it will progressively become rather continental under that high if it was to verify, feeling very cold, with hard frosts and potential freezing fog.

  

UKMO looking a little more defined, and not as cold at the surface, but hard to judge where it would go from there.

All eyes on ECM, which has been the model of the winter so far, if we can gain a colder trend from this model in the 7-10 day period then thats something to watch.

[chris55]

With regard to BAs post talking about getting a ridge in place before the Atlantic decides to head our way, the 00z ECM highlights that well, a definite southerly bias from the Atlantic looks "possible" due to the pattern over the USA, and IF and its a big IF, we could get that ridge to build to our north first then a train of southerly lows could cause absolute snowmaggedon (pinch of salt required)  

00z ECM (lets hope the 12z builds that northern ridge a bit more) However GFS is totally different at this timescale on the 12z, lots to be decided yet.

 

[nick sussex]

Large differences already appearing between the ECM and GFS/UKMO. At T120hrs the ECM doesn't split that shortwave energy in the west Atlantic, this then takes that ne, the UKMO/GFS split that allowing a nose of high pressure to develop between them at T144hrs.

That split or no split means different evolutions moving forward and upstream although they agree on the formation of western USA troughing, the amplitude of that isn't agreed on. Overall until we get agreement on some key early details then moving forward hard to say which model has the correct pattern.

Edited January 14, 2017 by nick sussex

[That ECM]

I honestly can't remember a winter like this. High pressure dominated for the most part. Rain totals must be way down against the average. Amazing yet boring in many ways. 

[Summer Sun]

At t168 we get south easterly winds, of course, they are shown to arrive when the coldest air has eased for mainland Europe

[stodge]

I just wonder whether fog is going to be the big story of the coming week. Next to no wind on a lot of the charts.

Under fog and frost, quite possible to get an ice day irrespective of 850s and other factors.

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I honestly can't remember a winter like this. High pressure dominated for the most part. Rain totals must be way down against the average. Amazing yet boring in many ways. 

Extremely boring!! It's hard to see how we brake this cycle, really hoping the modelled SSW comes off and before the end of January so that we can shift this pattern once and for all.. 

[chris55]

Look at the changes between the 00z and 12z, as Nick says the 12z phases the shortwaves in the Atlantic bringing the energy over the top. This is not what we want to see!

00z

12z 

 

 

And at 192 its game over, at least for now.

Some consistency between ops would be helpful and nothing is set in stone yet, far from it.

Edited January 14, 2017 by chris55

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, stodge said:

I just wonder whether fog is going to be the big story of the coming week. Next to no wind on a lot of the charts.

Under fog and frost, quite possible to get an ice day irrespective of 850s and other factors.

The only positive I can see in the ECM so far is that from Wednesday till the end of next week much of the country can have some frosts.

However, the output this afternoon has taken a few steps away from wintry weather.

[Pembroke Dangler]

there's got to be a lot of entropy going into next weekend as the models seem to be struggling with where to position the uk high, will it drift se again and give us the euro high we've had most of this winter so far, or will it position more nw of us allowing another northerly outbreak, or will it stay over us? The jury is out and I think it won't be clearer until Monday next week. 

[Summer Sun]

This reminds me of what we saw in December

Not a carbon copy but not too far off

[lassie23]

A classic beast from the east forming this winter is highly unlikely, best to ignore the models when they keep showing one. The pattern has been set, so expect more easterlies to fail. If the SSW does effect our weather, cold will probably come from the development of a Greenland High.

[karyo]

ECM has saved the worst charts for the end! Back to euro high territory.

Not far away from the METO extended update which talks about a gradual descent into mild weather from the west.

[nick sussex]

Because of the western neg NAO you must have that split in shortwave energy at T120hrs otherwise theres no gap for the high pressure and as the Canadian high develops it will amplify the flow to the west causing shortwave energy to phase to the sw of Greenland. I think I my have more members from this thread joining my I Hate West Neg Nao Club!

I wouldn't lose too much sleep about the ECM op it will probably change again in the morning and never a time to trust any output when theres big changes occurring over the USA.

Edited January 14, 2017 by nick sussex

[booferking]

And some thought uk model was bad i give you ECM if that is anywhere close to verifying we will definitely be looking at Feb for are next cold spell.

[Jonan92]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

This reminds me of what we saw in December

Not a carbon copy but not too far off

Awful chart but no way it is the same as December, NH View

Vs

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM now coming on board the mild zonal train advertised by the ensembles lately, it was only a matter of time before we saw this type of output.

[Summer Sun]

Matt Hugo last night "EC ENS support GFS ENS next wk is a pattern that dominated Dec. High pressure yes but it is just to the S or SE mild W or SW'ly over the top"

Tonight's ECM

Not quite the same time but generally following the above

[karyo]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM now coming on board the mild zonal train advertised by the ensembles lately, it was only a matter of time before we saw this type of output.

That's true, when the ensembles show mild the operational will follow. The other way doesn't aply of course.