Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[feb1991blizzard]

23 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Lol exactly, it's snowing now around the uk and folk are depressed about next week..enjoy it for gawd sake..the models look cold next week.

I think to get anything severe though, we will have to climb aboard the retrogression train like the ECM Is trying its best to do but looks like if it went further than 240 that it would come up against all manner of spoiler hazards in the Atlantic in the form of shortwave troughs.

Edited January 12, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[ukpaul]

With the PV on the run it's going to be very interesting to see how the strat warming, now being regularly forecast, will impact on it.

  

On next week,  it looks likely to be cold, clear days with more than a chance of freezing fog and rime. Sounds good to me!

Edited January 12, 2017 by ukpaul

[igloo]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

To class this as an easterly is incredibly flattering. It is an easterly only in the technical sense, not in the classical sense. The 12z runs have been another downgrade. The downgrades on the easterly began yesterday. This was very clear to see.

spot on by the time t72  hours comes along it will be greece and turkey once again getting the -12 uppers it will have sunk so far south i feel but its at least dry and with some luck hard frosts at night if we get clear skies a big if of course 

[Frosty.]

There's nothing wrong with cold high pressure with widespread frosts and crisp bright days..beats swly zephyrs hands down! A decent Ecm 12z with potential for upgrades still evident. :- )

[The Weather Dragon]

Last frame of ECM shows the pv on the move and heights building significantly over greenland - a trend to watch out for later next week - massive potential for late January 

Edited January 12, 2017 by Jonathan Evans

[radiohead]

4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Agreed.

We are a long way off Jan 87. A long long way off. 

A long way off 2013 let alone 1987. But I would take this model outfit over zonal any day.

[Dangerous55019]

5 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

With the PV on the run it's going to be very interesting to see how the strat warming, now being regularly forecast, will impact on it.

  

On next week,  it looks likely to be cold, clear days with more than a chance of freezing fog and rime. Sounds good to me!

Evening @ukpaul
Just remember that an SSW normally take a few weeks to have any impact.

[Duane S.]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

To class this as an easterly is incredibly flattering. It is an easterly only in the technical sense, not in the classical sense. The 12z runs have been another downgrade. The downgrades on the easterly began yesterday. This was very clear to see.

To be fair if I was viewing this 100's of miles further north than I currently am then I may well feel the same. The south has/had more insurance with this set-up. Still time for change, this may well end up being as southerly as it gets...

You can't take away the fact the ECM nailed the pattern early on and didn't waiver.

[Dangerous55019]

At the risk of being torn limb from limb by fetching the CFS into the 'Easterly Debate', it does appear to be highlighting some form of easterly flow next week.
Now I know that many will criticise the CFS, but I find it a very useful tool when looking for trends 

[ukpaul]

2 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Evening @ukpaul
Just remember that an SSW normally take a few weeks to have any impact.

It's quite variable actually, as there can also be a very swift reaction. The strat experts could probably give us an idea as to why.

[Matthew.]

More mid-latitude blocking  Cold and dry just about sums it up from the ECM. Maybe the last third of Jan into Feb holds potential for more snowy conditions with a weak Atlantic or maybe its just how it is this season

[phil nw.]

All 3 are fairly similar this evening with the high around our latitude next week but i think we can assume at this range positioning hasn't been nailed yet.

A look at the early and later frames of GFS/ECM show that the vortex is being shifted from the Canadian to the Siberian side of the pole so the modeling and placement of the block will not be finalised by a long chalk yet.Each run will recalculate the shape and track of the northern jet and the resulting alignment and positioning of the high as the low heights cross west to east to our north. 

The day 10 charts are really to illustrate the overall trend and of course detail will change but the general idea continues to show run to run.However the idea of a cold block somewhere around N.Europe/Scandinavia and a weakening Atlantic is still the main theme.

 

 

Edited January 12, 2017 by phil nw.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, ukpaul said:

It's quite variable actually, as there can also be a very swift reaction. The strat experts could probably give us an idea as to why.

2013 was 7 days from 10mb reversal to cold hitting the UK due to blocking of sorts, although to be fair even the 384 chart doesn't show a technical SSW yet.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

To be fair if I was viewing this 100's of miles further north than I currently am then I may well feel the same. The south has/had more insurance with this set-up. Still time for change, this may well end up being as southerly as it gets...

You can't take away the fact the ECM nailed the pattern early on and didn't waiver.

Yes, the ecm nailed the pattern, no doubt about it. However, it's operational runs over egged the amplification again and also had the low heights over southern Europe too far north.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[joggs]

13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There's nothing wrong with cold high pressure with widespread frosts and crisp bright days..beats swly zephyrs hands down! A decent Ecm 12z with potential for upgrades still evident. :- )

I just hope the high doesn't stay in situ with everything moving around it.

As soon as it sniffs a pressure rise over the med,you watch it slip se and leave us with a westerly lol.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

vortex smashed to the otherside of the poles ive seen some flakes im happy and things are dramatically trending colder.

ssw event brrr love it

[Timmytour]

11 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Evening @ukpaul
Just remember that an SSW normally take a few weeks to have any impact.

Also a thing to remember.....and this will need one of the experts to back it up.....but an SSW can be the prelude to a change from a mild winter to one full of promise.  Or, on the other hand, just when the models are showing us lots of promise, it can knock everything out of synch and end up delivering mild Atlantic driven weather!   All depending on there the PV scatters to......

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, MR EXTREMES said:

vortex smashed to the otherside of the poles ive seen some flakes im happy and things are dramatically trending colder.

ssw event brrr love it

Another day 10 chart full of potential. Seems to be the trend of this winter, especially with the ecm. Let's hope this time something like this verifies. If so, it's game on - again! Lol

[The Weather Dragon]

8 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

vortex smashed to the otherside of the poles ive seen some flakes im happy and things are dramatically trending colder.

ssw event brrr love it

I think that this is a very achievable solution given the starting point synoptics and background signals - we'll keep an eye on this - If we get to this situation then we are going into the freezer 

Edited January 12, 2017 by Jonathan Evans

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening ,both ecm and gfs are now in total agreement of a block to our east/northeast next week. So , anyone ready for the Winter ride?

[sub zero]

Best chart I've seen all winter at day 10 on the ECM in terms of Potential.

But as ever chasing dreams in FI, it does seem to be the way of things this winter.

Lets hope this time they have it right, heights building North atlantic, lows running through the azores, and an easterly flow from Europe to America. 

Or have they got it wrong and that high just keeps bobbing around southern Britain like it has done all winter, I know where my money would be...

 

 

[AWD]

I'm intrigued with the EC T240 chart.

I can't fathom where it's trying to go though.  Anybody care to hazard a guess at the following days likely upper air pattern?

[chris55]

ECM is fine by me, these two charts are very very promising!!

Warm esb (very warm lol)

and subsequently 

PV nearly cleared Greenland altogether primed to drop down to our east, with the Atlantic and Azores lows on route to Iberia!

In all my years of model watching I have to say the blocked trend from ECM looks pretty dam good! It has been steadfast with the initial Scandi block and eventually ends up very tasty re the onward pattern. And finally we are seeing EC46 (wich was cold and blocked) being backed by the Op.

I know the brutally cold  850s of an 87 style easterly are not there (at least not yet) but we normally see those type of charts out in FI and they are normally competing with a strong jet which inevitably scuppers things, but this looks different. To me the evolution looks slower, more realistic, and full of hope for a proper blocked spell of weather, and the cold implications of that are endless.

 

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Jonathan Evans said:

I think that this is a very achievable solution given the starting point synoptics and background signals - we'll keep an eye on this - If we get to this situation then we are going into the freezer 

Don't know about the background signals or whether this is achievable or not but that is the best day 10 chart I have seen this season so far. That chart gives us a fighting chance of experiencing PROPER cold and snow. We need to see temps at the back end of the ecm ensembles falling. This would increase confidence in this solution. At the moment, the temps are rising at days 14 and 15 on the ensembles.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

I'm intrigued with the EC T240 chart.

I can't fathom where it's trying to go though.  Anybody care to hazard a guess at the following days likely upper air pattern?

, if you look to the south of Greenland, its flowing all the way towards Canada, this suggests to me that its got a West based -NAO written all over it, you want our high and the high over North Canada to link up, so the flow is a straight Northerly and a proper Greenland high.