Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bude
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather...heavy snow and heat waves
  • Location: Bude
On 10/01/2017 at 20:56, Steve Murr said:

The NE quadrent & in the heavier bursts which lower the ZDL towards the surface--

Never trust an Easterly, espeacially when it's modelling a beaterly 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
Just now, John Badrick said:

Never trust an Easterly, espeacially when it's modelling a beaterly 

 

Well there's a lot of truth in that and many of us will remember the John Kettley incident.

However this one really does seem to have some plausibility. There's good model consensus and the ensembles are packing a cold punch. The issue I guess now is whether the high holds or slips south into northern Germany. The latter has to be the form horse, but here's hoping otherwise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

John badrick...

We have nigh on cross model agreement on an easterly! .

Its just exactions of inflow/cold depth/precipitation. ...

Aside from that its a v-safe bet now. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
Just now, tight isobar said:

John badrick...

We have nigh on cross model agreement on an easterly! .

Its just exactions of inflow/cold depth/precipitation. ...

Aside from that its a v-safe bet now. 

Until one breaks away at T96 or even less! seen it happen!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

Despite living on east coast Ireland and judging by these latest outputs, this 'beasterly' doesn't pack enough punch (in the semi reliable) to stretch across all the snowy goodness to my front door, so I'm not too excited by it, and I do actually expect changes, so who knows, but knowing my luck (no lying snow since 2010) it will downgrade! 

 

Still, great charts and much better model watching than last year or, last 6 years for that matter!!!

 

 

 

Edited by Rocheydub
Typo
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

I've seen a cross model agreement on a easterly as close as 72h then one of the models have a complete flip and sent more energy over the top so its not a done deal! can't remember what year it was but wasn't that long ago couple of years!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Well the 6z is a thing of beauty....will almost certainly be one of, if not, the coldest member of the 6z ensemble set. All this hinges of whether we can drag that finger of cold air our way, or if it gets broken off or sent further south. We could have bitter ice days with snow showers coming up, or just very cold instead. Either way, below average, and certainly not zonal!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

This is awesome, easterly flow, snow flurries and bitterly cold with severe frosts..Thank you Gfs 6z! :- )

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_06_168_mslp850.png

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_06_168_uk2mtmpmin.png

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_06_177_uk2mtmp.png

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_06_174_preciptype.png

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bude
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather...heavy snow and heat waves
  • Location: Bude
3 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Until one breaks away at T96 or even less! seen it happen!

I have also seen it happen before, been disspaointed too many times  to get excited about anything modelled post T96

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

I've also aeen many 'an easterly disolve over the years.

However imo this is v-solid in output and taking in the northern hemispherical profile/quiet Atlantic/and evolution/evolution s..throughout raw output. ..this isn't a worry! !!!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales

An Easterly can't be nailed down until 24-48hr, to say it's a safe bet at this stage is fool hardy if you ask me !

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Can we leave emotions/moans out please, And use the Model bater/moan thread for chit chat and the likes.

Please continue discussing what the models are actually showing, Thanks.

Edited by Polar Maritime
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I'm thinking that IF the 06Z is anywhere near to reality, any snow that falls (in central/eastern parts, anyway) between now and Sunday might still be around in ten days' time?

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Well at 108 in the ENS the Op does not look the best member , if it isn't the coldest member I'd be surprised but this could be a great set of ENS.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm thinking that IF the 06Z is anywhere near to reality, any snow that falls (in central/eastern parts, anyway) between now and Sunday might still be around in ten days' time?

Yes Pete, With sub-zero ground temps model'd that's certainly a 'possibility'. If the 6z played out true.. 

Edited by Polar Maritime
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
24 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm thinking that IF the 06Z is anywhere near to reality, any snow that falls (in central/eastern parts, anyway) between now and Sunday might still be around in ten days' time?

Sunday could be the fly in the ointment here - slight milder section coming in, with some heavy rain too...temps 7-9c, so it could scupper that somewhat. If we didn't have this coming in then I'd say there could be snow lying around for a while! All to watch, this could be the crux of the winter coming right up. The coldest synoptics at the coldest part of winter - could be the perfect storm!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.
1 minute ago, mountsbaysnow said:

being a novice,are we now getting into a reliable timeframe?looks very cold indeed.

Absolutely not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.
Just now, mountsbaysnow said:

What would we class as a reliable timeframe?24-48hr?

 

Depends on the feature and set up. But you won't go far wrong if you cast a skeptical eye on anything over 4 days out for general weather.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...