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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Movement of fronts seems much slower on 06z GFS this would mean rush hour could still be rain In south / SE with snow possible 7pm utill midnight.   Tomorrow mornings front moving down from the north also seems a few hours later and a bit slower 

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Posted
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Snow, Snow and more Snow!!
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl

Looking absolutely fine to me, cold takes a little longer to come back in, but is slightly colder when it does :)

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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

No comments, things must be bad!!!

Still looking very good. And this run has colder 850's from mid range. 

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

No comments, things must be bad!!!

People are probably awaiting to see what happens after the 'blip' following the current cold snap. This will only be coming through on the model run now/shortly.

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

gfs-1-156.png00z

gfs-1-150.png?606z

Looks fine to me :) although looked a risker run as more shortwave drama over the top of the high pressure, but we still end up over colder uppers!

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

No comments, things must be bad!!!

Well, this is definitely not bad for most! I wonder if people are focussing on the short-term this morning rather than long-term.

gfs-1-156.png?6

It does take a while for the GFS to get to this stage though. The evolution still needs to go in the "dodgy" file. Could easily upgrade a little or downgrade a lot between T96 and T168.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

No comments, things must be bad!!!

Don't worry Ali, it's actually looking a fair bit better!

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

No comments, things must be bad!!!

Not really, a little different maybe, but not bad. For example at t150 we got from 0z (left) to 6z (right)...

gfs-1-156.pnggfs-1-150.png?6

So colder uppers into the SE at that point.

High to the north more 'elongated'

gfsnh-0-156.pnggfsnh-0-150.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Nothing at all wrong with gfs 6 evolution for an easterly. .

Id be more concerned for a quicker evolution via continental feed!!. 

More so on 6z...

The momentum continues. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Good news, my computer is having issues.  Sounds like a better Easterly feed into the south so possibly so snow flurries around.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Lack of comments will be because everyone is in the regional threads discussing the snow chances so during a cold spell the mod goes quiet.

6z looks like an upgrade though I'm skeptical as the 6z in recent times always seems to be the best GFS run of the day.

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Posted
  • Location: Central Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Polar lows are the dream
  • Location: Central Scotland

Much keener on the GFS run this morning than the ECM, as the latter takes the low in the W. Atlantic north (putting more energy into the northern arm of the jet, which will prevent our high pressure from drifting far enough north for Scotland to join in the cold E'ly flow). By contrast, the GFS at T+240 has high pressure building out to the NW of the UK, with low pressure south of it, propping up the anticyclone and, ultimately, reinforcing the low heights over central and southern Europe, thereby aiding the longevity of the cold spell.

Still looks like a milder few days for Scotland and the far north early next week in any case.

ECM at T+216:

Capture.PNG

GFS for the same timeframe:

Capture 1.PNG

Edited by North of North Yorkshire
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Yes id say certainly snow flurrys..even showers in the feed.

But as-per after establishment' there pop-up features in the flow on occasion' at v-short notice! !!..

Its all gravy.

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Posted
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex

This is a bitterly cold run from the 6z gfs, southern half of the uk having ice days with the odd snow shower thrown in. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Upgrades all round on 06z especially in the 144-216 period-

cmon the sausage !!!!

Looking like a great 06z to be fair. Next wk is the first sustained easterly in a long time. It looks a tad more unsettled aswel with the potential for small features cropping up next week is an increasing possibility 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey

I wonder if we could get the polar vortex displaced as far as this? Probably not, but it does provide an excuse to post a nice chart :cold-emoji:

 

1978 vortex displacement.png

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Ice days and severe frosts especially over the snow fields into day 10.

m.pngn.pngz.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

-14c uppers touching the S/E into the run, Cold/Severe cold from the East all the way from the 6z..

a1.png

 

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex

Breakdown coming at 300+ but that's all pointless and will change, main theme being that we're going in the freezer and once it becomes established these can be very differcult to budge. Good run

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Just now, Smiler1709 said:

Breakdown coming at 300+ but that's all pointless and will change, main theme being that we're going in the freezer and once it becomes established these can be very differcult to budge. Good run

Not that it will verify, but the breakdown lasts about a day before the much fabled northerly gets us (quickly pushed away though)

gfs-1-348.png?6

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