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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

How's this for a 240 hour pressure anomaly :wink:

gensnh-21-5-240.png

This is the ensemble MEAN

That's the first time this winter that the EC46 has gained short-range support for its ideas on ridging in that area.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Not a lot of comments this morning, was a good GFS but the ECM not quite as good as lately this morning although still cold.

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Morning all - GEFS looking very good this a.m. with plenty of members breaching the -10 level

GFSENS00_52_0_205.png

Happy model watching today - ECM still solid & fascinating period for us all ATM.:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

The latest 06z GFS run showing the same consistency as yesterdays same time run. Important 300 mb wind flow shows core high pressure aligning for a Easterly flow into much of England and Wales. All aided by a developing upper trough that will move from NE TO SW in the continental flow.

c

Morning all. My favourite chart of the morning from ECM for the middle of next week. Plenty of cold air in that Euro flow with bands of snow associated with minor troughs. The deepest of cold uppers not far from the SE of England but surface flow will keep temps close to freezing or below. Outwardly it would appear to be dry for Southern Britain  but the kinks in the isobars would produce some snow showers at times. Very hard to forecast exact timings and locations but will be worth watching developments next week. Anyway , nice charts for most , plenty of snow for the Alps and hopefully the best cold spell for you lot for a number of years starting to evolve today.

C

ECMOPME00_144_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
59 minutes ago, metaltron said:

Ah ok so if the control and op are different then ensemble spread is most likely to be caused by resolution, whereas if they are similar the ensemble spread is most likely to be caused by starting data. Think I've got it. Thanks!

Not always no. They have to be compared to each other, as well as the ensembles apreads to seek a conclusion. 

For example, say a majority cluster was following the op, with the control more of an outlier. This would suggest that the lower resolution of the control is not picking up higher res details and therefore less likely to be the correct outcome. But again, before disregarding the control and any nearby cluster, the overall synoptic patterns need to be reviewed in line to make a judgement.

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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)

Solid model agreement on this mornings runs for no Atlantic for next week.  Very cold and slack winds likely from Northern England Northwards but the possibility of something a little more interesting from the East as you go Midlands South.

Still plenty of time for changes especially with hints of a Greenie high beginning to appear in FI!  

Needless to say the summary is cold to very cold!  :cold: 

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

Still a few uncertainties regarding the exact position of the high next week. Hoping for a little riggle room to push it north a bit but either way it's looking very cold for England and Wales probably Scotland also with surface conditions really playing there part under still conditions. Get the cold in place first and the snow will come normally. Little disturbances or features coming up against the block been fueled off the low pressure to our south is a genuine possibility so worry not about ppn when it's 5 days away. 

Bit gutted the ukv4 has downgraded the snow today but it seems the met have modified it significantly in there forecasts because it's still quite snowy for some on the beeb.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne
  • Location: Eastbourne
2 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Still a little time for today to change

reckon it will be a complete now cast situation

Without doubt a nowcast situation.  I've always doubted a significant snow event from this and the models are behaving the way they always do in this sort of situation.  I suspect snow will be confined to upland areas across the South East, with some local exceptions based on precip intensity.

And the model runs I've woken to this morning are very nice if you like the cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Good looking model output this morning, the current cold shot with snow for some, plenty of ice and frost before briefly milder sun / mon then turning progressively colder from the east.:cold-emoji: 

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on
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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
36 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

Yes how cold..will it be if the ECM is correct?

yes quite cold...colder than average

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Let's not forget that with an easterly even with -5,-6 uppers over a frozen continent would deliver very cold conditions indeed, and any precip would be more than likely to be snow. The ECM this morning is a belter, with the UKMO well on board now also. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Good looking model output this morning, the current cold shot with snow for some, plenty of ice and frost before briefly milder sun / mon then turning progressively colder from the east.:cold-emoji: 

Yes I was hoping the mild blip will be squeezed out all together but it's really only going to be a 24 hr affair so not to worry.

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
52 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Pv on the move! This is a trend we have seen for awhile. Not a lot NW to come and flatten the pattern. 

IMG_8222.PNG

IMG_8223.PNG

Just need to hope it doesn't leave any little lobes hanging around, as even that can spoil our fun and has done in previous years.

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
39 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

Yes how cold..will it be if the ECM is correct?

The website yr.no uses ECM data to produce forecasts and has nice graphs and meteograms as well. It has an option to change languages from Norwegian at the top of the page. Should update around 8:00am.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Snow is now odd's on in London tomorrow hitting 23/23 on the snow row

gefsens850London0.png

A lengthy period of  below zero 850's too

That's quite an incredible drop in the 500 temps, not often you see that go up and down that quickly. Often the precip is gone before that colder air has a chance to tuck in behind. In this case it looks good for the undercut, these rain to snow events are always fun to watch unfold.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
19 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The s / se has a good chance of a covering of snow later today as the rain turns to sleet and then heavy wet snow and tonight becomes very icy and frosty, there is also a risk of snow tomorrow morning in the SE and followed by further snow showers as a very cold Nly airstream develops..then further snow risk on Sunday for the east / southeast..all this is on the Gfs 00z!..Bank:D

 

I completely agree that is if you are following the GFS, however the met I believe using the UKMO? States a period of sleet/snow moving south on Friday, but from then on temps are expected to rise up to 9C on Sunday! They haven't gone into next week however 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

So 06z underway, hopefully a further nudge North of amplication and the Easterly feed slightly stronger next week.  

I can't seem to get meteociel working but i'm guessing by the lack of comment that it isn't a better run!!

Edited by Ali1977
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