Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[nick sussex]

I think after that better start the GFS sort of flatlined. The high takes an age to get north and the flow is too slack with the colder uppers not getting far enough north. Given the start point for the GFS it really should have been better than what it finally delivered in terms of the easterly.

It will be very cold at the surface but to get a chance of some convection off the North Sea the flow needs to be stronger with the southern Europe high deeper and the GFS needs to get the high centre north much more quickly.

Edited January 11, 2017 by nick sussex

[Dennis]

Look whats poss go to happen :Greenland - Scandinavia

[Timmytour]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think after that better start the GFS sort of flatlined. The high takes an age to get north and the flow is too slack with the colder uppers not getting far enough north. Given the start point for the GFS it really should have been better than what it finally delivered in terms of the easterly.

The worrying thing then becomes that, having set off on  the same path as ECM for a change, it found itself able to take a different route.
Let's hope that neither ECM or UKMO discover that route tomorrow!  And let's hope GFS can't find it again on the 12z and instead follows ECM's well worn tracks
 

[Paul]

The posts about 2010 etc have now all been hidden as the conversation has continued beyond the request to stop. Please keep it to the model output in here, and head to the banter thread for more general chat. 

[liam300]

Anybody got the charts with the dam line? Looking at for tomorrow's event and where the dam line will be situated.

[Ice Day]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think after that better start the GFS sort of flatlined. The high takes an age to get north and the flow is too slack with the colder uppers not getting far enough north. Given the start point for the GFS it really should have been better than what it finally delivered in terms of the easterly.

True, however I would take the improvements within 96 all day long and let the rest take care of itself.  Whatever it shows later on will have changed by the 0z's anyway.  The important thing is there's no horrors lurking in the semi-reliable......and with a bit of a tweak we could even see the mythical retrogressing Murr Sausage shaped high?

 

 

 

Edited January 11, 2017 by Ice Day

[Snowman.]

hmm

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Atlantic is still snookered in FI though and I would imagine it will be absolutely bitter at the surface under light winds?

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think after that better start the GFS sort of flatlined. The high takes an age to get north and the flow is too slack with the colder uppers not getting far enough north. Given the start point for the GFS it really should have been better than what it finally delivered in terms of the easterly.

It will be very cold at the surface but to get a chance of some convection off the North Sea the flow needs to be stronger with the southern Europe high deeper and the GFS needs to get the high centre north much more quickly.

The retrogression signal looking on again though, that's a pretty strong signal amongst the ensembles, admittedly a good deal end up West based -nao so not prolific wrt uppers but the Greenland height rise signal looking pretty solid.

[stewfox]

Colder air holding on for longer. 2m charts don't show max day time temps above 4c across large parts of the Midlands. Southern England out to T180 and beyond.

18z for monday 9pm

12z for monday 9pm

 

This is good for Fred if placed in a favourable location.

 

 

 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think after that better start the GFS sort of flatlined. The high takes an age to get north and the flow is too slack with the colder uppers not getting far enough north. Given the start point for the GFS it really should have been better than what it finally delivered in terms of the easterly.

It's all about trends though isn't it nick, only very recently the gfs wasn't interested in the slightest but it's making moves towards the Ecm which is a positive. Looking forward to this upcoming Northerly and hoping for cross model support for the Easterly which most of us crave!..and deserve

[Frostbite1980]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

The retrogression signal looking on again though, that's a pretty strong signal amongst the ensembles, admittedly a good deal end up West based -nao so not prolific wrt uppers but the Greenland height rise signal looking pretty solid.

Agreed pretty similar to the ECM just at different time frames.....a new trend?

[karlos1983]

Epic fl inbound on 18z GFS 

 

[Jason M]

By this point a very interesting little development. A cold pool is being pulled west, air pressure is falling slightly and things are getting interesting up north. Liking this run a lot!!!!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=222&mode=1

 

[Ali1977]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Epic fl inbound on 18z GFS 

 

Yeah this is looking like a prolonged cold spell now, never really expected that a few days ago - this chart would surely be extremely cold at night 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Agreed pretty similar to the ECM just at different time frames.....a new trend?

I don't even think theres that much difference in time frames tbh.

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

The worrying thing then becomes that, having set off on  the same path as ECM for a change, it found itself able to take a different route.
Let's hope that neither ECM or UKMO discover that route tomorrow!  And let's hope GFS can't find it again on the 12z and instead follows ECM's well worn tracks
 

I almost feel bad berating a run that a few weeks back would have been welcomed and it does at least follow the ECM trend for retrogression. The main thing is we got that crucial early improvement within T96hrs and so that's good to end the day on a high note.

[blizzard81]

Unless there is a dramatic upgrade in the next 24 hours, this is not going to be a classic easterly. The flow is too slack and the uppers are not low enough. For these two reasons, any snow from the east will be minimal. Don't get me wrong, this is a huge improvement on the last 3 winters but in terms of real snow potential (next 48hrs aside), I think most people will be pinning their hopes on retrogression as the easterly will be a bit of a let down to many on here.

[Frostbite1980]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Epic fl inbound on 18z GFS 

 

PV over Scandinavia primed to dig south introducing frigid air surely

[Paul]

3 minutes ago, liam300 said:

Anybody got the charts with the dam line? Looking at for tomorrow's event and where the dam line will be situated.

You can view them here - select HGT 500-1000 from the drop down list

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

[Jason H]

Look at that Northern Blocking. The outlook is cold looking at the model output from today. The FI on 18z is going to be something to behold.

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The retrogression signal looking on again though, that's a pretty strong signal amongst the ensembles, admittedly a good deal end up West based -nao so not prolific wrt uppers but the Greenland height rise signal looking pretty solid.

Yes the trend is great. I wonder if the UKMO are still dismissing any MJO influence for the next 25 days!

[Timmytour]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Unless there is a dramatic upgrade in the next 24 hours, this is not going to be a classic easterly. The flow is too slack and the uppers are not low enough. For these two reasons, any snow from the east will be minimal. Don't get me wrong, this is a huge improvement on the last 3 winters but in terms of real snow potential (next 48hrs aside), I think most people will be pinning their hopes on retrogression as the easterly will be a bit of a let down to many on here.

I sense if we are patient, some of that PV shunted over to the east will start sliding into Europe and that will eventually bring fun and games our way

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Yes the trend is great. I wonder if the UKMO are still dismissing any MJO influence for the next 25 days!

Also there is a growing signal to shift the strat vortex Eastwards, however, this looks a top down event (if it does propagate of course), so that cant surely be a reason for the Greenland trop height signal, the timeframes surely wouldn't add up?

[Frostbite1980]

Low pressure near s Greenland is scuppering the GH I have a feeling this may be a close but no cigar.....UK high in FI anyone?