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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, Luke Attwood said:

Correct me if I'm wrong,but looking at the models are we not on the edge of a two week cold spell?:cold:

If the ECM is right we are on the edge of that yes, potentially a notable spell. Still need to work out how next week goes yet though.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

This is a wonderful sequence of charts from the Ecm 12z if you are a coldie, however, Sidney is praying for a swift return of mild, don't think he's gonna be happy! :- )

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_images.jpg

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_120_mslp850uk.png

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_144_mslp850uk.png

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_168_mslp850uk.png

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_192_mslp850uk.png

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_216_mslp850uk.png

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_240_mslp850uk.png

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_240_mslp500.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland
Just now, TheGFStroll said:

are we still on for a 'mild' spell still from Sunday to Tuesday? or is that dissapearing? As i live in the |South East and judging on the models it looks to be staying cold down here even though the met office has us under 8 degree temps for Sunday? 

Depends on which model you look at. Too soon to say.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
3 minutes ago, TheGFStroll said:

are we still on for a 'mild' spell still from Sunday to Tuesday? or is that dissapearing? As i live in the |South East and judging on the models it looks to be staying cold down here even though the met office has us under 8 degree temps for Sunday? 

Looks increasingly like a mild sector will get in for Sunday, but most modelling pushes it back west again early next week. Even the UKMO would be pretty cold with the high on top of us.

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL

Wonderful viewing, but as ever the caveat is that there is still huge divergence at close range, so it's far from being in the bag.  Easterly setups are notoriously fragile for the UK. 

Edited by weatherguy
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

if  that  is right  for  friday  s/e  and most of  the  east anglia  wont  move  to much  because  of  heavy  snow:cold:

gfs-2-48.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland
3 minutes ago, Ben Blizzard said:

Would tonight's ECM bring snow showers for SE England or would it be a dry easterly? Thanks :) 

Between 126-168 it shows some snow showers around the Thames Estuary and along the south coast.  Pretty much dry in the SE after that for the remainder of the run.

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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
7 minutes ago, Ben Blizzard said:

Would tonight's ECM bring snow showers for SE England or would it be a dry easterly? Thanks :) 

Personally I would say it's too early to tell. Usually in easterly setups troughs and  showers are only able to be forecasted a few 12 hours in advance. You would expect some snow showers thought looking at what the Ecm has shown tonight.

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester,Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers & Thunderstorms Cold Winters & Snow
  • Location: Rochester,Kent
6 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Between 126-168 it shows some snow showers around the Thames Estuary and along the south coast.  Pretty much dry in the SE after that for the remainder of the run.

Thanks very much :) I'm hopeless at reading the charts. I won't disrupt the thread any further now.:sorry:

EDIT: Cheers @Grimsby Snow Lover too :)

Edited by Ben Blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
22 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

That's right still a bit up in the air,but would u say that cold is certain for next week?

All models are cold next week or very cold,  especially at nighttime. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
3 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

Kind of -5/6 at night?

If the sky's clear in a slack Easterly -6/8, if snow cover poss colder. I'm no expert but that seems very possible in this set up. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well it was this morning - yes !

And after this afternoons run it should too.:wink:

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
34 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

If the sky's clear in a slack Easterly -6/8, if snow cover poss colder. I'm no expert but that seems very possible in this set up. 

I think the question is how much cloud there will be, if skies are clear then even without snow cover sheltered areas could get down into minus double digits. If there is cloud we could end up stuck just above freezing during the day and at night.

Nice to see the ECM continue with some sort of easterly, at least keeping conditions very cold though there does seem to be a brief warm up on Sunday as a weak low moves across with associated fronts. Given the nature of that low I would keep caution on the track as it could go anywhere really over the coming runs. A real sign again from the ECM of bringing something even more significant after day 10 with low heights slowly moving south towards Scandinavia as our high slowly departs westwards.

ECH1-144.GIF?11-0   ECH1-192.GIF?11-0   ECH1-240.GIF?11-0

As some have said it is a shame we can't get the pattern to shift a hundred or so miles north to allow deeper cold and more potential of convection.

Onto the ensembles

EDM1-144.GIF?11-0   EDM1-192.GIF?11-0   EDM1-240.GIF?11-0

EDM101-144.GIF?11-0   EDM101-192.GIF?11-0   EDM101-240.GIF?11-0

The signal remains for at least a slack easterly in the south and of course the retrogression later on.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
2 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

Sorry what is this showing ali?

2m temps on the decline and with subzero temps for Holland, the dotted red line is the mean, temps are at the side and dates along the bottom

Edited by Frostbite1980
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
2 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

Sorry what is this showing ali?

That it is rather chilly in De Bilt in the Netherlands.

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