Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[A Frayed Knot]

Yes as above ' massive tides here in south wales as well ' i myself will be fishing the Bristol channel close to the Severn River ' so hope all is good and safe for anyone on the Eastern coast and no floods at all .

Looking at the Wind speed (Scary ) stay safe where ever you are ' Its going to get wild out there and also shiver me timbers weather .

Snow is going to be a (is it or ain't it sort of thing ) I know we will get wet flakes or sleet ' no rain though .

Kum By YAH ... Camp fire will be setting up soon .

AFK.

[Mucka]

Hmm pretty much all over for the Northerly and cold uppers by Saturday night according to GFS, very flat. UKMO a little better but light years from ECM type amplification and sharpness of the trough to the East.

 

 

Edited January 11, 2017 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Hmm pretty much all over for the Northerly by Saturday night according to GFS, very flat. UKMO a little better but light years from ECM type amplification and sharpness of the trough to the East.

 

 

Yep, don't think the GFS is going to budge on this and the UKMO doesn't look that great at 96 hrs. Could be a massive coup for GFS but bitter disappointment for all us maligned coldies. Issue is, if the GFS is correct, we're probably looking at a trapped Euro high scenario which won't be pleasant!

If we are to follow the GFS route, I'd rather have not had the 'here's what you could have won' carrot dangle from the ECM!

Edited January 11, 2017 by CreweCold

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yep, don't think the GFS is going to budge on this and the UKMO doesn't look that great at 96 hrs. Could be a massive coup for GFS but bitter disappointment for all us maligned coldies. Issue is, if the GFS is correct, we're probably looking at a trapped Euro high scenario which won't be pleasant!

We will be non the wiser if ECM doesn't budge either but UKMO is a bit of a worry, thought that would be better and GFS actually being flatter than last nights run is a bit surprising.

I don't think a Euro high is on the cards though as upstream has improved the last few runs from around day 5 so maybe a UK high.

I wouldn't say GFS is right yet at all but it is getting very near witching hour.

Edited January 11, 2017 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

We will be non the wiser of ECM doesn't budge either but UKMO is a bit of a worry, thought that would be better and GFS actually being flatter than last nights run is a bit surprising.

I don't think a Euro high is on the cards though as upstream has improved the last few runs from around day 5 so maybe a UK high.

I wouldn't say GFS is right yet at all but it is getting very near witching hour.

UKMO will be too far S I think (at 144)

I tell you what, if ECM doesn't budge towards the GFS by 7am I'll be amazed.

Edited January 11, 2017 by CreweCold

[snowfall09]

Am I right in thinking the GFS can sometimes over estimate the power of any Atlantic systems? Surely if those low pressure systems wasn't so deep that high to the SW of the UK could shift further north west giving us a better chance of seeing an easterly develop when high pressure finally builds into Europe?

Edited January 11, 2017 by snowfall09

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

UKMO will be too far S I think (at 144)

That is not a good chart (trying to be calm). Far too much forcing with energy heading more East then N or NE but hopefully I'm reading it wrong!

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

That is not a good chart (trying to be calm). Far too much forcing with energy heading more East then N or NE but hopefully I'm reading it wrong!

It was my first thought too.

EDIT: There you go...aligned to GFS and PANTS

GFS at same timeframe

GFS actually potentially marginally better

ECM solution looking to be on shaky ground this morning.

Edited January 11, 2017 by CreweCold

[January Snowstorm]

For the last 3 days I've been seeing a 24/36 hour toppler, albeit a potent one. (granted some might squeeze 3 days)

The models have now firmed up on this

Edited January 11, 2017 by January Snowstorm

[The Eagle]

All hopes of an easterly destroyed already. GFS had it nailed (again).

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It was my first thought too.

EDIT: There you go...aligned to GFS and PANTS

I think it is actually worse than GFS  for any Easterly prospects.

I guess if there is to be no Easterly and prospect of locking the cold in we need to make the most of the coming spell and hope we get some snow.

Edited January 11, 2017 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, The Eagle said:

All hopes of an easterly destroyed already. GFS had it nailed (again).

Could be a dark dark day for the ECM!

[Mucka]

I don't think it is time for a postmortem yet. 

It doesn't look good though because every model including GEM thus far has suddenly found a lot more forcing in the Atlantic trough shunting things East and flattening the ridge so it is as though something has been resolved upstream but I can't be bothered to analyze what tbh. Unlikely ECM finds the same disruption as previously but let's wait and see.

 

GEM hanging in there at least but flatter than last night.

Edited January 11, 2017 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

I don't think it is time for a postmortem yet. 

It doesn't look good though because every model including GEM thus far has suddenly found a lot more forcing in the Atlantic trough shunting things East and flattening the ridge so it is as though something has been resolved upstream but I can't be bothered to analyze what tbh. Unlikely ECM finds the same disruption as previously but let's wait and see.

That was my impression too.

I get the feeling the GFS will want to send us on another wild goose chase in FI 

But can't be bothered with that in all honesty, going bed!

[Mucka]

16 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That was my impression too.

I get the feeling the GFS will want to send us on another wild goose chase in FI 

But can't be bothered with that in all honesty, going bed!

Yeah it's a shame. as I said before and last night, upstream has improved so if we could get the initial amplification then very likely the cold would be locked in.

On a more positive note GFS isn't a disaster. at least it would be dry and get progressively colder at the surface under that high

And if the FI signal for increased Atlantic blocking is correct we should have a chance at cold again before January is out.

 

 

Edited January 11, 2017 by Mucka

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

GFS is over doing it easterly trying to come in later, but more south,gfs  always puts zonal first before anything else,   we will still see an easterly on the ecm 00z and GFS will upgrade don't worry night all

Edited January 11, 2017 by weathermadbarnsleylad
PS wind howling in Barnsley South Yorkshire at min

[Mucka]

Of GFS ensembles 75% are flatter than their 18z versions at 96h,

Going to be a legendary fail for ECM or GFS as far this forum is concerned either way. 

JMA is better than GFS or UKMO at 84h but keeps the theme of being more progressive than last nights run.

 

Edited January 11, 2017 by Mucka

[Met4Cast]

Agreed. The ECM is likely to climb down now. No shifting from the GFS and now the UKMO has flipped to the GFS as well. 

[Mucka]

Latest Euro4 has rain for the SW 

But stll turning to heavy back edge snow in the SE.

Edited January 11, 2017 by Mucka

[That ECM]

We have been looking at a potential easterly from t240 ecm has been more consistent and sticking with the overall pattern. The gfs and ukmo are not that different but the high not going as far ne has massive differences to what we would get.  I don't think there has been any "flip" just a variation on a theme. Firming up details from t72 down is said for a reason but we like to micro analyse charts at t216 plus.. Still very interesting moving forward and much to be resolved.

[Mucka]

It is crazy but even at 48h ECM is further West with the trough better defined than GFS

[shotski]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

UKMO will be too far S I think (at 144)

I tell you what, if ECM doesn't budge towards the GFS by 7am I'll be amazed.

Even if it doesn't anything after 5 days would have to be viewed with a huge pinch of salt. 

[swfc]

I along with a few others did say that the last 24 hrs had shown some eye candy on tbh the majority of models but to be carefull and wait. This morning any newbies will be wondering whats happend after a few respected members were saying ignore gfs and its over doing of its output.Well it may still be but it has stood its ground and after looking at the nhp its not such a shock.The northern arm of the jet imo is and has looked to strong .high pressure leaving the esb has or is trying to push the pv east and this does amplify things in the atlantic.Not looking beyond 4-5 days yet again proves to be the yard stick again

 

 

Edited January 11, 2017 by swfc

[Mucka]

ECM 96h not as good as previous efforts but a lot better than GFS or UKMO. 

With the improved upstream pattern we have seen lately it could still get there.

[Ali1977]

Oh no , this isn't looking to good with regards the Easterly although still better than the others. Latest modelling for the snow tomorrow looks even better down south.

Edited January 11, 2017 by Ali1977