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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
2 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Yes, it's looking a bit rough down the North Sea on Friday.

nww3-0-60_pqz4.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nww3_cartes.php

Great website for live wind data for the north sea, access to most of the Oil rig platform weather data. Every one of those rigs in the firing line from very strong winds. Sorry mods off topic :oops:

 

http://mmweather.net/page/maps

 Screen Shot 2017-01-10 at 23.23.02.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
14 minutes ago, Jason M said:

GEFS are very interesting indeed. By 204 many of the runs are seeing our high gain latitude and an increasing number start to look very good. Fascinating development today that we are starting to see runs move the heights further north over time. Its subtle, but maybe something stirring in the woodshed :D

Interesting, I had stopped looking after 144 and seeing how amplified they were.

It seems they are responding to a better upstream pattern in FI rather than increased amplification in hi res.

Maybe w will get both tomorrow as with ECM and have cross model agreement on that easterly at last?

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
1 minute ago, Changing Skies said:

Things just got serious! Sodding London is even in it. :yahoo:

I have a scary suspicion I'll see bucket-loads of sleet due to UHI while being circled by snow...

The Euro4 precip type charts have been a little over optimistic with snow in the past, so we'll see and believe it when I see it.

At least we have some model consistency now with the track of this wave on Thursday and it's heavy rain and possible back edge snow. Fancy the North Downs getting a good covering, not far from me so may jump in the car to Biggin Hill, as doubt it'll settle in lowland London.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
On 1/6/2017 at 17:33, radiohead said:

About half the 12Z GEFS members develop a strong or very strong low on the 12th/13th. Which isn't even hinted at developing like this on the Op run.

gens-1-1-150.pnggens-2-1-144.png?12gens-3-1-162.pnggens-7-1-174.pnggens-9-1-162.pnggens-10-1-168.pnggens-11-1-150.png?12gens-14-1-174.pnggens-17-1-168.png?12gens-12-1-162.png?12

 

On 1/6/2017 at 17:53, Timmytour said:

Lokking at P14 if that was pointing the way to one possible evolution and that we ended up with a deep low to our north east that decided to dive south down the North Sea, with the high tides expected around that time, it could end up being quite a nasty little feature.

Got to give GFS some credit......some of the ensembles were pointing the way to where we seem to be heading  four days ago,,,,,,,

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
13 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Latest Euro4 should have those in the SE salivating

17011218_1018.gif

As I suspected it would, that little wave feature is completely nullifying the shower threat for NW England. Some not so happy people around our patch I would imagine. To be expected though, this feature has been gaining more and more traction in the modelling.

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
16 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Latest Euro4 should have those in the SE salivating

17011218_1018.gif

A good start, but it's got to hold that for 7 runs and in my experience the pink ebbs and flows a lot from run to run.

In comparison, after 6 hours of rain BBC graphics saying snow here at 3pm when temperature drops to 2C, but back to rain at 4pm even though temperature doesn't change any further. Doesn't seem cold enough to me.

Edited by The Enforcer
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

As I suspected it would, that little wave feature is completely nullifying the shower threat for NW England. Some not so happy people around our patch I would imagine. To be expected though, this feature has been gaining more and more traction in the modelling.

Yes, its killed our convection, anyway regarding the GEFS, they have moved more towards a blocked solution in my book, its just that they don't show up well in graph form because unfortunately, there isn't cold uppers shown, some have more tropical air in the mix due to a more SE component than direct Easterly.

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

Well best set my alarm for morning runs I mean work lol.

Who's going to come out on top re the easterly? 

Gfs or ecm?.

Night all.

Edited by joggs
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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

Interesting to see the spread map for ECM at just +54 hours. Obviously relates to the precise track those little disturbances take.

ec-ens_nat_mslstd_mslmean_hres-msl_20170

Edited by Nouska
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
7 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

A good start, but it's got to hold that for 7 runs and in my experience the pink ebbs and flows a lot from run to run.

In comparison BBC graphics saying snow here at 3pm when temperature drops to 2C after 6 hours of rain, but back to rain at 4pm even though temperature doesn't change. Doesn't seem cold enough to me.

That's not really true. We're into high res territory now by tomorrow the specifics should be nailed. 

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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
10 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The Euro4 precip type charts have been a little over optimistic with snow in the past, so we'll see and believe it when I see it.

At least we have some model consistency now with the track of this wave on Thursday and it's heavy rain and possible back edge snow. Fancy the North Downs getting a good covering, not far from me so may jump in the car to Biggin Hill, as doubt it'll settle in lowland London.

Will report if anything worth coming to see here in biggin hill @Nick F

hoping so 

cant wait for the 0z

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Note the bone chilling dewpoints edging in

IMG_1449.PNG

That doesn't look that cold. The dew points were lower than that in the frosts last week, down here in the soggy SW.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Actually it is reflected more than the 12z in graph form, in fact there are some real stonkers in the London GEFS graph with a few going between -12c to -15c.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
  • Weather Preferences: very cold or very hot
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
17 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Ah - the celebrated channel low bumping into the cold block scenario. Maybe not a million miles from this :-)

archives-1987-1-12-12-0.png

 

You two can stop winding us up now. Lol hopefully your correct but I don't know. Certainly the models (especially GFS)! are shocking this winter. Maybe a sign of things to come in the future of weather forecasting for the British Isles 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Actually it is reflected more than the 12z in graph form, in fact there are some real stonkers in the London GEFS graph with a few going between 12c to -15c.

There are but compared to the 12z the ensembles have once again moved away from the retaining of cold that the ECM has, almost unaninimously it has to be said which concerns me greatly.

Mind you I don't trust the GFS op let alone the lower resolution ENS

Edited by Weathizard
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

There are but compared to the 12z the ensembles have once again moved away from the retaining of cold that the ECM has, almost unaninimously it has to be said which concerns me greatly.

Not sure they have, the blip between 15th - 18th is surely just the warm uppers while the high moves to scandi and re-orientates itself, all scandi highs do that and some of the best ones have a period of warm uppers preluding them, still will be surface cold even in that aforementioned interim period.

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Posted
  • Location: Fakenham
  • Weather Preferences: Copious amounts of snow and ice days
  • Location: Fakenham

Quite concerned about the output as previously mentioned, northerly winds not good when combined with spring tides, we could easily see a repeat of December 2013 and that was catastrophic for this area

article-2519250-19E5D5AF00000578-215_964x641.jpg

Brancaster-Beach-Toilet-225x300.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
9 minutes ago, Norfolk_N_chance said:

Quite concerned about the output as previously mentioned, northerly winds not good when combined with spring tides, we could easily see a repeat of December 2013 and that was catastrophic for this area

article-2519250-19E5D5AF00000578-215_964x641.jpg

Brancaster-Beach-Toilet-225x300.jpg

Agreed not good timing for a northerly on Friday, plus the pressure is quite low. I hope the surge and high tide do not coincide. 

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