Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[phil nw.]

A few posts removed to keep the thread on topic.

Just a reminder we have a cold spell thread open for questions about snow etc and of course the Banter thread for model related general chat.

In this busy time it would help greatly if members had a think as to where to post.

Thanks all.

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Worryingly though, the ECM is on its own

It has been consistent though. Which is more than can be said for the GFS lately.

[Captain Shortwave]

Happy with this at day 6 to be honest

The UKMO is a little more complicated, but has a deeper area of low heights to our east at the time so if we did get an easterly then it would be colder and more unstable.

Looking a little ahead, maybe showers isn't the thing we are looking for here.

In the end we need that low to move as close to the UK as possible, somewhere around northern France would be fine, therefore we would get some form of disturbance or weather front moving out of the continent towards the UK. Otherwise it could be quite dry but initially a pretty sunny spell after the showers at the end of the week/start of the weekend die out.

[nick sussex]

Whats interesting is that the ECM hasn't just plucked the solution from la la land. If the MJO does start moving then this would give some better confidence in its trend.

[Backtrack]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

It has been consistent though. Which is more than can be said for the GFS lately.

Consistency is one thing, but with the Met O backing down, of sorts at least, and the GFS backtracking, I'm unsure how much I buy into the ECM, we've been here before, albeit with less of a consistent signal from ECM

[Weather Boy]

If we might sober ourselves up with the GFS:

 

We can see that even that 12z op tries to give at least the south an easterly.  It wouldn't take a huge adjustment for that to deliver the goods.  I accept that it would be very far from Snowmaggedon as per ECM (which as we all know WILL NOT verify exactly by the way) but it is a cold chart for the south.  No hairdryer SWerlies.

Can I please point out that the only way is down from ECM, so no wrist slitting please when that happens!  It equally doesn't mean the cold spell is off.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

5 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Consistency is one thing, but with the Met O backing down, of sorts at least, and the GFS backtracking, I'm unsure how much I buy into the ECM, we've been here before, albeit with less of a consistent signal from ECM

??

Met O 6-15 day outlook is an improvement on yesterday's?

Also I cannot see GFS has backtracked at all?  

Gradually falling in line with ECM??

Edited January 10, 2017 by Kentish Snowman

[Summer Sun]

JMA going for another cold spell during next week

[Steady Easterly]

Beautiful viewing tonights Easterly ECM , however i will start believing it at T-48, been burned too many times over the years.

[Ali1977]

Let's see what the EPS, every run and ENS from the ECM have been great last few days - let's see where the op sits in the ENS. Whilst I'm still not convinced on a prolonged Easterly , I am convinced on a week of cold and very frosty with snow in places from tomorrow. 

[gottolovethisweather]

1 hour ago, seabreeze86 said:

The consistency from the ECM is astounding run after run with only slight differences and more importantly bringing the easterly at the same time and not delaying it.

144hrs looking primed

168hrs is epic 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, the model you CAN trust, watch and compare 0z with 0z and 12z with 12z and stick to out to D7 and yes, the ECM delivers forecast expectations time and time again. My expectations upon viewing this evening's operational run is a pretty darn cold wintry mix, slowly giving way to further settled conditions in around five days time. And just outside of FI although with a 50:50 chance of coming off right now, is this anticipated Easterly from D8 to D10. Watch this space! A fascinating spell of wintry Synoptics is about to hit our shores. 

Edited January 10, 2017 by gottolovethisweather
Sorry Frosty somehow hijacked your images onto my post, weird. Will the real Frosty, please stand up, please stand up!

[Frosty.]

This is a wonderful sequence of charts from the Ecm 12z if you are a coldie, however, Sidney is praying for a swift return of mild, don't think he's gonna be happy! :- )

[Backtrack]

2 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

??

Met O 6-15 day outlook is an improvement on yesterday's?

Also I cannot see GFS has backtracked at all?  

Gradually falling in line with ECM??

Apologies, phone corrected UKMO to Met O. Yes, but 12Z has stepped somewhat away from 06z solution.

[Wilxy]

People forget that the 12z is one run and the 6z was brilliant so i'm waiting for more runs along with the ensembles there is a awful lot of uncertainty could go either way at this stage! At least its pointing in the direction of more seasonal starting from tomorrow

[The Weather Dragon]

That ECM easterly could be gone tomorrow- seen it too many times before - expect a middle ground 

[Kentspur]

11 minutes ago, pip22 said:

Well. JMA sort of agreeing with ECM atm.

Didnt JMA winter forecast have us down for a backloaded winter and a mild december too? There was def atleast one model goig for a mild december but cold february (albeit were still in jan)

[Day 10]

So the winter ECM menu reads

North to north westerly snow shower soup

High & chips for the main

A lovely easterly gateaux

Followed by beer and wine at the Greenland Lodge

 

 

 

[MKN]

Just now, Jonathan Evans said:

That ECM easterly could be gone tomorrow- seen it too many times before - expect a middle ground 

Hundreds of times. Ive also seen the ECM stick to its guns with something like this and then drop it totally at ridiculously short time range.  Imo high pressure will sit over us. Hopefully for once we get lucky and it goes the way shown now. 

[mcweather]

Well when the ECM raised the possibility of an move to an  Easterly late last week I raised one eyebrow now I have raised the other one as well. The interesting thing looking down the line from tonights 12z op is that in its latter stages it shows how the cold could become locked in and drive the jet south . Shades of 47 in the final few frames.

[Frosty.]

Normally it's T+240 when we get a cold tease from the Ecm but today's 00z / 12z it's days 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10+

Edited January 10, 2017 by Frosty.

[nick sussex]

In terms of the GEFS not being that interested in the easterly. The question is how many of the GEFS have the correct solution upstream at T72hrs? That's where the differences start to grow and then magnify as we go forward. If you're going on the past week you wouldn't put much money on the GFS as its been playing catch up but of course we can't know for sure until we get agreement on the models.

[Weathizard]

Every time the ECM comes out I hide behind the sofa expecting big downgrades and shortwave dramas(I can hear Nick shuddering from here) but it's consistently churning out these beastly charts, what an incredible 12z.

GFS ensemble suite looks very split, difficult to read a lot into them. Whenever an easterly rears its head I think we are all just waiting for it to go tits up.

[MR EXTREMES]

6 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Consistency is one thing, but with the Met O backing down, of sorts at least, and the GFS backtracking, I'm unsure how much I buy into the ECM, we've been here before, albeit with less of a consistent signal from ECM

I think the gfs has been awful and the ecm and ukmo have been toying with the same ideas the gfs took acid and went to find John Lennon.

Also the gem has played with the idea to but I've not seen them charts yet.

It has its moments where it sniffs similar trends to the ecm largely but gem also throws wobblys but also like the ecm gets bit excited with heights at times.

But I have more faith in blocking features in zero or extremely low solar activity especially sustained spotless lengths of time ahla 2009/10 and the charts do look classic 80s style and back then was a weak solar minimum.

But waiting now just to see after the cold front passes down on Thursday Friday. 

All my toes fingers hairs everything crossed would love to see good old skool winter weather.

 

[Harsh Climate]

12 minutes ago, Jonathan Evans said:

That ECM easterly could be gone tomorrow- seen it too many times before - expect a middle ground 

To be honest it's not the easterly that's good, It's what's likely to follow!

[Weather Boy]

12 minutes ago, Jonathan Evans said:

That ECM easterly could be gone tomorrow- seen it too many times before - expect a middle ground 

Yes, but if you are referring to the GFS 12z, the middle ground would also give an Easterly next week, just one that is not as vigorous, pressure higher and not affecting the far north, as outlined in my post here:

18 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

If we might sober ourselves up with the GFS:

 

We can see that even that 12z op tries to give at least the south an easterly.  It wouldn't take a huge adjustment for that to deliver the goods.  I accept that it would be very far from Snowmaggedon as per ECM (which as we all know WILL NOT verify exactly by the way) but it is a cold chart for the south.  No hairdryer SWerlies.

Can I please point out that the only way is down from ECM, so no wrist slitting please when that happens!  It equally doesn't mean the cold spell is off.

Either way, for the time being there is little or no mild weather forecast, except for the north if the GFS is right and the ECM 100% wrong.