Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Upgrades for the south Fri morning

That's strange, same run but don't align.

[Polar Maritime]

Some heavy snowfall over the bulk of the UK on Friday if this feature moves South as Model'd. Blizzards over the Pennines..

Edited January 10, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[Eskimo]

Oh woop, wrong day, ignore me!

[Ali1977]

Just now, PerfectStorm said:

That's strange, same run but don't align.

different events on Thurs and Fri

[Ali1977]

Another move towards ECM with the cold hanging on that little bit longer, now can we get that WAA a little further North... C'mon Easterly please!!! The snow on Fri looks good, this could shift further inland on the next run as it is trending West.

[Weathizard]

Comparing the UKMO And GFS at t72, gfs has a low where the UKMO doesn't at all out in the Atlantic

 Still appears the GFS is sending more energy over

Edited January 10, 2017 by Weathizard

[Met4Cast]

GFS better for short term snowfall but it still seems intent on sending the block Southwards initially allowing milder air to get over the top of the block from the Atlantic. Starting to worry how consistent it is at doing that now.

Hopefully UKMO doesn't side with it. 

[phil nw.]

Compare the westward shift of cold compared to the same time on yesterday's 12z 

A sharper trough and slower Atlantic ridge more amplified-good trend for extending the cold.

 

[radiohead]

12Z High resolution HILAM is showing two little closed lows approaching from the northwest at 48 hours!

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS day 5 compared to yesterdays day 6

   

Certainly a trend towards a more amplified pattern. Whether it is enough on this run for an easterly is another story. The GFS is actually quite similar to yesterdays UKMO output.

To honest I am glad we have headed towards the two possible solutions I and many others thought would happen, either settled with a continental drift or an easterly. There seems to be a cut off point where we get enough amplification to send low pressure westwards towards Iberia which gives us the cold and instability required to bring snow showers in from the east. For a wintry easterly the end game is the Azores ridge being completely sheered away.

Edited January 10, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[festivalking]

Just now, Captain Shortwave said:

GFS day 5 compared to yesterdays day 6

   

Certainly a trend towards a more amplified pattern. Whether it is enough on this run for an easterly is another story.

Is it amplifying because its coming up against the cold air and thus forcing it northwards? 

[Ali1977]

Unfortunately no better at 120 than the 06z, if anything slightly worse as the block is slightly further South, lets see where it lies in the ENS and what the UKMO says!!

[frosty ground]

The same trend as the 06z Run

Loop da Loop, Looks good to me, just need to see if the low develops over the med like the 06z.

Edited January 10, 2017 by frosty ground

[Paul]

Matt's latest synoptic guidance blog is online - looking at the upcoming cold spell and beyond to the prospects of a potential cold easterly setup.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=7892;sess=

[Weathizard]

GFS VS UKM at 120

[Ali1977]

Well well, the UKMO says no to GFS and gets some more amplication in - looks a fair bit better....GFS hasn't been correct all week with this so if the ECM follows with the Easterly we have right to be optomistic.

Edited January 10, 2017 by Ali1977

[Dennis]

Newest EC MJO 

[tight isobar]

In stages. ..less decently alignment sending core cold south..

Im personally not concerned atm..twists and turn of complexities! !..

[Ali1977]

A strange chart at 144 from the UKMO - hard to say which way thats going!! I don't think its up there with the 00Z ECM thats for sure.

 

Edited January 10, 2017 by Ali1977

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

A strange chart at 144 from the UKMO - hard to say which way thats going!! 

Looks like a variation of the GFS 06z with energy driving south east through the ridge that is building. 

[phil nw.]

We are well beyond the reliable now but for interest the way the wedge of heights squeezes ne towards Scandinavia is better for forcing the cold air underneath west towards us.This is another thing we need to maintain those Euro low heights to our south and of course keep some continental cold to draw on.

See yesterday's ridge was more rounded today's much better orientated

considering this is the GFS with it often observed flatter bias beyond the day 4 range then this is pretty decent.

[Badgers01]

5 hours ago, West is Best said:

Lol. GFS buckles and, typically, then goes all Armageddon on us. Not their finest hour, it has to be said.

 

GFS - zero to hero then usually back to zero !! but discount it at our peril !!

[bluearmy]

Gfs swings further southeast with the ridge although it looked promising for a while 

ukmo is further east than this morning and looks like it would struggle to back the cold west in the short term - bit battlegroundy but pressure is high (and looks akin to the meto prediction for Sunday)

given we are dependant upon the bahaviour of the Atlantic trough and euro trough to generate the ideal ridge placement and CAA, it will be incredible if ecm throws out another corker later on. 

The morning runs gave and the afternoon ones may take away a little. 

 

 

[nick sussex]

OMG more shortwave drama! Nooooooooooooooooo!

Just when there was hope of a less stressful route to an easterly the UKMO delivers that T144hrs output, no we're reliant on that shortwave cutting se at T168hrs.

The GFS after a more promising 06hrs run brings the PV further east on its 12hrs run with too much energy running over the top. I really hope the ECM won't go down the shortwave from hell route, we've suffered enough!

[Snowman.]

There is shortwave on the UKMO, would have to rely on it to get us cold backing west.

EDIT: nick beat me too it

Edited January 10, 2017 by SN0WM4N