Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[bradymk]

It's almost there at 162!!

[Purga]

GFS 06z looking very promising so far - moving further towards the ECM solution.

Nice developing 'Genoa Low' and cold air hanging on and developing over most of England especially the E / SE.

Edited January 10, 2017 by Purga

[nick sussex]

The GFS 06hrs run embarking on the more riskier shortwave ejection se'wards with ridge building in from the ne. I'm not sure my nerves could hold up with this type of evolution! The ECM is the simpler  ridge extension ne'wards and then the loop of the jet back towards the Low Countries.

If you feel lucky then this type of evolution to an easterly is more likely to get the high further north however its more fraught with danger.

Edited January 10, 2017 by nick sussex

[snowray]

On 1/1/2017 at 22:15, cyclonic happiness said:

 

 

Well, well, well....GFS finally comes on board shouting and screaming on its 06z run, of all runs....how embarrassing. 

[alexisj9]

31 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Interesting feature running down the north sea coast.

Interesting in some respects, however I think it may be an idea to watch out for sea height's on this day two. Not sure if the spring tide and winds coincide, but the risk is there.

[Singularity]

Well this is just fascinating - GFS is finding the upstream amplification more and more, with a great trend there, but just can't seem to stop pushing that shortwave feature through this weekend.

 

The mad thing is, that shortwave is now moving right through the upper ridge - which is why we see high pressure developing steadily to the north of the low.

Really though, in an environment of upper level convergence, that low should fill and make little progress east - as per the 00z ECM and UKMO. 

As it drops south (or what remains of it on the ECM and UKMO - it's a bit of a stealth feature on those), it helps to get the easterly in motion.

The phrase 'kicking and screaming' comes to mind.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

what is not being mentioned on here is a miserable washout Sunday, could be warnings issued by meto nearer the time, been on last 3 GFS runs, dreading it, but at least later in run looks drier

[Nick F]

13 minutes ago, Nick F said:

You can see on the ECM 300 hPa winds - the jet returning SW on southern flank of block building NE is further west - allowing cold air troughing over Euro land further west

GFS has equatorward jet further east + poleward jet to the NW of UK further east - which doesn't allow as good position of block for UK cold advection from east

So we can see the upper pattern differences and it maybe that GFS may not be handling as well the returning equatorward jet over Europe and extention of troughing SW and W to our south.

 

Equatorward returning jet heading SW over France further west on 06z GFS - BINGO an EASTERLY for UK

00z for 06z Tues                                            06z chart for 06z Tues

 

 

Edited January 10, 2017 by Nick F

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

 

Well, well, well....GFS finally comes on board shouting and screaming on its 06z run, of all runs....how embarrassing. 

That is a very cold run for us down south, I think that flow would also bring in some Thames streamers off the North sea.  I expect we may see this being forecast as a possiblily on the METO forecast now.

Edited January 10, 2017 by Ali1977

[tight isobar]

Oi oi..gfs becames a man..not a boy!!!

Finally getting to grips with evolution. 

Should falk v-closely..in line (ecm)

[Polar Maritime]

Certainly colder uppers holding on from the Easterly feed pushing in now from the GFS..

 

 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

-10 850s for South East at 196hr it's coming

[snowice]

With ever run the GFS is correcting west all the time and with it the cold uppers  are  moving west!

[bluearmy]

Thursdays wave soon within euro 4 sights 

[snowray]

Yes and lets make the most of it, not often that we get such upgrades on all of the big 3 models, just about full agreement now.

[Man With Beard]

Where's this low to the SW going...

[carinthian]

There we have . Classic Scandinavian Block in formation. Its taken a long time with GFS but its now come on board with ECM at 168t. What I look fori is a strong ridge moving NE , warm flow to the NW of the Britrish Isles and NEly flow moving SW , again from surface to 300mb levels. Most important the Central Euro low feeding and maintaining the cold flow from East to West.

Edited January 10, 2017 by carinthian

[Ali1977]

This is now getting very exiting, if anything the GFS set up for the Easterly looks better, just a blip at day 6 thats a little less cold.  This could be the start of something great.

[nick sussex]

Oh dear where are my sedatives! lol Great GFS run so far with the core of the high further west, although I was hoping the outputs wouldn't continue to feed my obsession with shortwaves.

[tight isobar]

Ecm..gfs..

Thats good model agree. 

Good easterly flow.

Via both mods..

[frosty ground]

Undercutting Atlantic low...

[Weathizard]

Quite a dry easterly though by the looks of it! No complaints obviously but looks predominantly dry for the majority of the uk

[Nick F]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS 06hrs run embarking on the more riskier shortwave ejection se'wards with ridge building in from the ne. I'm not sure my nerves could hold up with this type of evolution! The ECM is the simpler  ridge extension ne'wards and then the loop of the jet back towards the Low Countries.

If you feel lucky then this type of evolution to an easterly is more likely to get the high further north however its more fraught with danger.

Come on Nick, you are talking like a man who has not recovered from the previous traumas of easterlies failed ... we've come on a long way with GFS since only very recent zonal express runs.

The downside of the 06z Scandi high is that it's only the south that benefits from deep cold and only then the  far SE that gets snow showers. But it's a step in the right direction and a far cry from what was being served up early yesterday's 00z suite - especially GFS. At last we have GFS on board with ECM, just hope that ECM doesn't climb down on the 12z from showing a Scandi high - as it will be traumatic!

[Ravelin]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Undercutting Atlantic low...

GFS trying to overcompensate for being slow onto the bandwagon and going for the undercut and full Scandi heights solution. Attention seeker!

[northwestsnow]

Yup, gfs dragged kicking and screaming to the Euro ....

And plenty of snow poential before hand.

Really hope the easterly comes off for the SE crew...