Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[bobbydog]

Ice ice baby...

@Nick L is there not a general rule of thumb for surface temps from the upper temps?

Edited January 9, 2017 by bobbydog

[A Frayed Knot]

[nick sussex]

Just now, bluearmy said:

the euro trough gains some strength day 9 but we need to find some energy for it or it will fill

I'm a bit surprised it doesn't deepen a bit more. I can barely contain myself the ECM looks amazing for down here, I could do my husky ride  from my house rather than fighting with snow chains to get up into the mountains!

It would be great to see this ECM run verify and the 850's might get lowered more nearer the time which might help a bit more with any North Sea convection.

[Matthew.]

If ECM comes true might be in for a back-loaded Jan. Looks interesting to say the least and if all fails a frosty HP. Winter arrives wednesday

[Stozzy]

13 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

SE ENGLAND STAYING COLD ..

Think most of the U.K. Would be , surface cold light winds and hard frosts 

[Doctor96]

Guys , the easterly you show above , is never going to do much for UK for snow and any fun. People keep posting future easterly  charts and they are not  good easterly , we need a full easterly  or NE to get decent snow. 

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

BOOOM

Freezing ice days and plenty of snow down south on this run, shame it's at 240 again and is on its own with the other zoos models. 

Snow showers, perhaps merging into longer spells of snow for the southern half of the UK. I know it won't look like that at day 10 but I wonder if that ridge of high pressure just sneaking out of Newfoundland and flirting with Greenland wants to hoover up the Scandi High and turn it into a Greenland one? What with the vortex seemingly wanting to move to the Eastern side of the polar field. It's the hope that kills you

 

[igloo]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, in rural SE England, I would say daytime Max temps significantly below freezing perhaps?

the south looks like it will have snow showers where the pressure is lower with very low dew points from a easterly any snow lying will be like powder but i have a feeling this will be a outlier sadly

[Snowy L]

Noticed this secondary low on the T96 just east of the UK.

I'm guessing if there was a T84 that low would be right over the UK. Both ECM and UKMO have picked up on secondary lows close to the UK.

 

 

[Stozzy]

ECM ends very very cold , easterly winds and snow showers into the east 

[ghoneym]

ECM with a nice easterly at the end of the run. Englandshire feeling the brunt of it. 

 

 

 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, igloo said:

the south looks like it will have snow showers where the pressure is lower with very low dew points from a easterly any snow lying will be like powder but i have a feeling this will be a outlier sadly

Yes mild outlier! lol

[Frosty.]

Sensational Ecm 12z, especially that T+240..what a cracker..this really is a test for the Ecm, hope it passes with flying colours!..wow

[tight isobar]

Chanel lows..pm incursión. .etc.

The ecm refuses to budge on it's continental incursion.  And statistics suggest solid format.

Im also at present doing personal research into land mass impact of cold regarding land mass equation and maritime (water/sea) impacts. .will divulge outcomes. 

Anyway. .the ec solid pronounced' and steadfast. .it's the friend that drives you when all the rest are getting bladdered!!!..

Great evolution/synoptic. .

Winter Herald s

Edited January 9, 2017 by tight isobar

[Zakos]

Ridiculous difference between ECM and GFS at just 144.

Experience tells me, with such huge model disparity at such a short range, a significant pattern change is likely to occur, and my money is on a cold easterly, potentially very cold with snow.

Although in reality, perhaps it will be a tad watered down from the ECM day 10 chart, what an absolutely stunning chart.

 also goes to show we dont necessarily need a negative AO to get bitter cold, as the atlantic continues to be very inactive.

GFS wants to fire up the atlantic, an unlikely scenario based on how timid the atlantic has been for the last 6 months.

 

 

[Pembroke Dangler]

 ECM is like a dog with a bone it ain't giving it up that easily.

[Hotspur62]

Well ECM ends with a very cold end but to me would just be bitterly cold but dry.I would have thought if this ever verified we would need a slight NE feed as opposed to a direct E feed to get some convection off North Sea. I may be reading this wrong but just my take on it.

[radiohead]

4 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Noticed this secondary low on the T96 just east of the UK.

I'm guessing if there was a T84 that low would be right over the UK. Both ECM and UKMO have picked up on secondary lows close to the UK.

 

 

[Barry Reynolds]

I do wonder whether an Easterly is possible, the ECM keeps picking it up, and the METO update today seems full of uncertainty. Perhaps they haven't entirely discounted it.

[chris55]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

BOOOM

Freezing ice days and plenty of snow down south on this run, shame it's at 240 again and is on its own with the other Op models. 

Well out of the three main models only ECM and GFS go to 240 on their Op runs.

If we look back to 144 then I would say UKMO is siding with ECM rather than GFS which is positive, plus the EC ens have been solid in the longer term in the last 36 hours, so one would hope we are onto something !!

[Snowy L]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Thanks, looks good for eastern areas if it were to come off. Even if it doesn't this is a very unstable Northwesterly so troughs can pop up anywhere at any time.

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, Hotspur61 said:

Well ECM ends with a very cold end but to me would just be bitterly cold but dry.I would have thought if this ever verified we would need a slight NE feed as opposed to a direct E feed to get some convection off North Sea. I may be reading this wrong but just my take on it.

The easterly on this run is indeed dry apart from some light precip along the south coast at the very end of the run. But those details will change from run to run. Long way to go.

[NeilN]

I hope this does materalise and the ECM are right. Potential 1979 repeat on the cards. 

[Day 10]

The ECM in a bit more detail for thurs/fri.

[Zakos]

4 minutes ago, Barry Reynolds said:

I do wonder whether an Easterly is possible, the ECM keeps picking it up, and the METO update today seems full of uncertainty. Perhaps they haven't entirely discounted it.

Im no expert, but with a chart like this at just 168 hours from the ECM, I  personally think an easterly is now the more likely scenario 

Perhaps a dry cold easterly with little snow, but that chart is only heading in one direction i.e  an easterly flow of some kind across the UK.

GFS still wants to bring in the atlantic, but almost every run keeps the cold over europe longer, and delays the arrival of westerlies - Im not buying it