Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[ribster]

Oh my, rather liking 192. Looks good to me.

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM T192 close to amazing for the SE, -6 uppers with continental breeze

To be pedantic, the SE has -8 uppers at T192 on the 12z ECM.

Not that it won't be "all change" in 12hrs time of course.  Lol.

The south of the UK will be mostly dry & cold for around 7+ days from Thursday if the EC 12z verified.  Snow chances a little sketchy in the neartime but the south never had much chance in that regard anyway. 

Edited January 9, 2017 by AWD

[Stozzy]

192 , very cold especially where any snow cover , severe frosts in places 

[Scandinavian High.]

SE ENGLAND IN FREEZER.. 

Edited January 9, 2017 by abbie123

[Stozzy]

Just now, abbie123 said:

SE ENGLAND STAYING COLD ..

Think most of the U.K. Would be , surface cold light winds and hard frosts 

[radiohead]

T240 should look quite nice....

Edited January 9, 2017 by radiohead

[Nick L]

The end of this EC is bitterly, bitterly cold. It's as dry as a bone but for the SE of the UK in particular it's utterly frigid. The differences between this and the GFS are almost laughable.

[Seasonality]

Scandi love from ecm.

Edited January 9, 2017 by Seasonality

[Ali1977]

Awesome ECM , And has some support from the ENS, very interesting EPS to come. Could we now finally start trending colder I wonder.

Edited January 9, 2017 by Ali1977

[Daniel*]

Near ice days for the SE of England on the 192 bitterly cold.

 

[bobbydog]

Come on Europe,

Send that cold over here....

[weirpig]

Forget the channel tunnel anyone fancy ice skating to Calais  models are all over the place  ecm and gfs poles apart. Great viewing 

[Mucka]

Shame that low just escapes over Russia. Would of been nice if the door had been shut a tad sooner and it had come back west through Scandi as it would of brought some very cold air with it before livening up the Euro trough.

Still not bad I suppose for maintaining snow cover and very cold temps.

[nick sussex]

OMG this is such an exciting ECM run! most of western  Europe would have a good snow cover by then which could drag those temps down even more. So any easterly should have some bite, and some convection could start kicking off over the North Sea.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

The end of this EC is bitterly, bitterly cold. It's as dry as a bone but for the SE of the UK in particular it's utterly frigid. The differences between this and the GFS are almost laughable.

Yes, in rural SE England, I would say daytime Max temps significantly below freezing perhaps?

[bluearmy]

Just now, Mucka said:

Shame that low just escapes over Russia. Would of been nice if the door had been shut a tad sooner and it had come back west through Scandi as it would of brought some very cold air with it before livening up the Euro trough.

Still not bad I suppose for maintaining snow cover and very cold temps.

the euro trough gains some strength day 9 but we need to find some energy for it or it will fill

[samadamsuk]

Hi all, I seem to be stuck on the 00z ECM - can anyone post a link please? thanks

[Scandinavian High.]

How cold would it get in south east England..

Quote

 

 

[radiohead]

A great end to the run.

 

[Day 10]

[Nick L]

Just now, abbie123 said:

How cold would it get in south east England..

 

Grid points aren't as cold as you might expect actually. 2m temps of around 2-3c, although night times would be well below freezing. Now, if we had snow cover...

[Mucka]

JFF ECM/GFS day 10

[Ali1977]

BOOOM

Freezing ice days and plenty of snow down south on this run, shame it's at 240 again and is on its own with the other Op models. 

Edited January 9, 2017 by Ali1977

[Nouska]

15 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Come on Europe,

Send that cold over here....

I'm trying ....honestly ... you're welcome to it.

Eeeek!!! ... that's -14C over most of the department.

Edited January 9, 2017 by Nouska
Going into hibernation!!!

[BARRY]

Just now, Nick L said:

Grid points aren't as cold as you might expect actually. 2m temps of around 2-3c, although night times would be well below freezing. Now, if we had snow cover...

it's the closest we have come to snow since 2010