Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[radiohead]

12Z ECM at 96 hours showing what would mostly be snow showers for Scotland, the Northwest, Wales and Ireland. A little more marginal for the southwest perhaps. Some showers would extend a bit further east of course.

Edited January 8, 2017 by radiohead

[Ali1977]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Good point Ali, some very cold nights over the snow fields..goodness doesn't that sound better than the mild mush we had on Christmas day

Not wrong, I don't think snow will be a problem anywhere with the 850s between Thurs and Sat , just need some shower activity.

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, radiohead said:

12Z ECM at 96 hours showing what would mostly be snow showers for Scotland, the Northwest, Wales and Ireland. A little more marginal for the southwest perhaps. Some showers would extend a bit further east of course.

Can you link me to those charts please?

[Skyraker]

11 minutes ago, igloo said:

yes the last two frames from the ECM does have another bartlett high forming i hope this is not a trend as its happend to often this season but its miles better than the GFS 

We haven't had a Bartlett this year.

[Mark Neal.]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Can you link me to those charts please?

Similar on this site CC. http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec 

[Ali1977]

This is Buxton using the ECM, just to show high ground in central England and the likely temps. I imagine nights will be colder. Ice days

Edited January 8, 2017 by Ali1977

[Bolton67]

7 minutes ago, radiohead said:

12Z ECM at 96 hours showing what would mostly be snow showers for Scotland, the Northwest, Wales and Ireland. A little more marginal for the southwest perhaps. Some showers would extend a bit further east of course.

I'm not complaining 

Bolton 

 

[pegg24]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

This is Buxton using the ECM, just to show high ground in central England and the likely temps. I imagine nights will be colder. Ice days

Buxton always does well 1000ft above sea level.

[Duane S.]

I wish people would stop responding to the 1 or 2 same old boring posters who are seemingly desperate for spoilers, i ignored them for a reason.

Anyway, a good ECM, probably a little more realistic with the high a bit further south. Never mind the details in FI though,which is totally pointless at this juncture, the main thing is, it has not backtracked towards the GFS.

[Ali1977]

Wouldn't it be good if the ECM op was an outlier (warm) later, and the EPS followed the 00z with the Easterly. Anyway, in the reliable we have the first nationwide cold event for about 3 years. And it's still early Jan so the coldest winter months are still ahead of us according to climate 

Edited January 8, 2017 by Ali1977

[Summer Sun]

NOAA

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/GFS

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING HAD FINALLY PHASED ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY SUNDAY...AND THE RESULTING FULL LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. BEFORE LATER YIELDING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...TRACKING TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE SURFACE PLOTS SHOW THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST TWO CYCLES...WITH LOW STAMPS AT 11/00Z LINING UP AROUND 85 DEGREES WEST...RUNNING NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. RECENT RUNS FROM THE UKMET AND CANADIAN HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC...WITH THE UKMET BEING ILL-DEFINED WITH CERTAIN FEATURES ALOFT IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...AND THE CANADIAN BEING SO MUCH FASTER THAN CONSENSUS AT THE SURFACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WE HAD ALSO BEEN STEERING AWAY FROM THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...BUT THE 12Z RUN CERTAINLY TRENDED FAVORABLY...AND SEEMS TO BE CATCHING UP TO THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION. OVERALL...THERE WERE REASONS TO PREFER THE 06Z/12Z GEFS MEAN OVER THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THIS THINKING SUPPORTS OUR CHOICE OF NAM/GFS FOR THIS SYSTEM.

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Once again, not what we wanted to see...

Does it really matter? Not one jot too me, I'm more interested what the models show in the morning and we go from there. You can't rule out the flatter GFS set up for sure but just going from experience  you have to favour the ECM/UKMO if albeit I dont think it will be as amplified as the 12Z UKMO run but that is just going from past experience.

[Troubleatmill]

Just now, radiohead said:

Once again, not what we wanted to see...

1 minute ago, Bolton67 said:

Confidence is average ?  So what's your point ?

I'd say confidence is prety high following ensembles through the day... sadly

[snowbob]

After watching the weather for week ahead  the U.K. met are not going with the gfs 12z

thats for sure.

looked a lot like the ecm for fri /sat

airing that sort of forecast fills me with confidence going forward

[steveinsussex]

lol hello channel low

 

Edited January 8, 2017 by steveinsussex

[Frosty.]

Arctic cold and snow showers incoming from the NW midweek to next weekend, nothing for coldies to moan about as  the models have now firmed up on a cold blast..I'm really not concerned about week 2..going to enjoy what's ahead of us in the reliable timeframe..won't be long before the first yellow be aware warnings are issued!

Edited January 8, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Parts of Northwest Scotland could be looking around 9 inches of snow by next Saturday a slow start for the ski resorts but a good top up by next weekend

[Devonshire]

59 minutes ago, SnowMania said:

Thats quite an injection of 850's coming out of Canada into the North Atlantic at +168 ECM!

Most of Europe back into the freezer.

Is it just me - or does that ridge look like a poor little squirrel holding up it's last nut of the winter, only to find that it's all gone bar a little bit of shell??

[bluearmy]

Shame we have lost the level of amplitude re the ridging that follows the northerly on the ec op. the ridge settling across the uk always seemed favoured following the last eps run which put a halt to the northward progression as the eps caught up with the op

Plenty of evidence on the 12z GEFS that if the MLB is the verified solution, this ec op won't be far from the mark and would possibly be several hundred miles further north 

Edited January 8, 2017 by bluearmy

[Summer Sun]

16 minutes ago, Bolton67 said:

Confidence is average ?  So what's your point ?

It's a discussion of the models and shows confidence at NOAA is average therefore we have plenty of interest ahead in the coming day's

[winterof79]

43 minutes ago, radiohead said:

12Z ECM at 96 hours showing what would mostly be snow showers for Scotland, the Northwest, Wales and Ireland. A little more marginal for the southwest perhaps. Some showers would extend a bit further east of course.

Indeed and 850s compliant

[Snowy L]

1 hour ago, Bolton67 said:

Really ? 

 

come on now the 168hr chart does not show that..even at 192 hrs it's cold and frosty. 

To many wrist slashing over the top post..

I think many, me included, couldn't care less about cold and frosty and just want to see snow. ECM after 168 is colder than GFS, but the exact same when it comes to chances of snow - 0%. Snow drought now closing in on 4 winters for me, of course people will be annoyed. If cold and dry is your thing, then yes, ECM is much better than the GFS.

Edited January 8, 2017 by Snowy L

[johnny1972]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Still miles better than GFS, cold still, and dry, nothing worse than rain!

Only cold for England possibly Wales. That high for Scotland and NI has hung around like a bad smell in the wrong place all winter. That's a mild SW flow for us. Last frost I saw because of this position was end of November !!

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended (15th) shows high-pressure edging back in from the west still chilly at the surface I would think certainly to start with

[Troubleatmill]

14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Shame we have lost the level of amplitude re the ridging that follows the northerly on the ec op. the ridge settling across the uk always seemed favoured following the last eps run which put a halt to the northward progression as the eps caught up with the op

Plenty of evidence on the 12z GEFS that if the MLB is the verified solution, this ec op won't be far from the mark and would possibly be several hundred miles further north 

Several hundred miles further north would be good, at least we would lose the Atlantic influence shown on the EC op and keep a decent surface cold