Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[radiohead]

The high may end up sitting a little further south at the end of this run but it's still miles better than the GFS at this point. Sigh of relief.

[MR EXTREMES]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

ECM sticking with the Scandi heights theme, building blocks coming into place.

As long as those Azores lows behave!

the azores will classic zero sunspot chart i expect to see a ssw event by feb i reckon.

brillant cold to our east.

[gottolovethisweather]

52 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

At 168hrs it's game over for cold spell as milder air moves over the top.

The ecm is exactly what the Meto are predicting......Cold spell followed by milder air

 

 

 

Mention of the word "milder" equals a like from Summer Sun and no one else, lol. Sorry Gavin, just a trend I've noticed.

@January Snowstorm If one ECM t+14,400 minutes chart in isolation is to taken at face value then you are somewhat correct. However, any lying snow having fallen prior to that chart from say t+9,600-t+14,00 minutes (Wednesday through early Friday) would likely hang around under the HP cell influence.  HP domination is Gavin's favourite weather as most will know and I personally don't mind it in winter either, lol, so perhaps that was what the like was for. Onwards.

Edited January 8, 2017 by gottolovethisweather

[Dean E]

Thats quite an injection of 850's coming out of Canada into the North Atlantic at +168 ECM!

Most of Europe back into the freezer.

[AWD]

The EC 12z Det is fine if you are after a prolonging of the cold or a potential continental flow.

A broadly similiar vein to the previous 4 EC Det runs.  Yes, there is variation on the degree of amplification and depth of any upper air cold but that is to be expected at such a timescale & shouldn't be of any concern right now if the broad pattern is to be observed.

The important thing is it is a trillion miles better than the GFS 12z & has NOT backtracked to the GFS like some suggested.

If you want to play "chase the 0c isotherm" at T144+ then go ahead, enjoy. I'll just sit back now, a little more relaxed knowing, whilst not as good as the UKMO 12z, it's on the same page.  

Off to work now, happy enough.  Night all.

[Geordiesnow]

ECM showing perhaps as some expected with the easterly bit further Southwards rather than fully over the UK but the general pattern looks fairly similar. I would not worry too much yet about any possible details regarding the easterly flow, a lot can change between now and then that is for sure.

Aslong the GFS is wrong there is always a chance of the cold prolonging for a bit longer.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Still miles better than GFS, cold still, and dry, nothing worse than rain!

[gottolovethisweather]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Being a snow starved coldie, I'm happy with the Ecm 12z so far!.

bring on the Arctic!

 

 

 

Yep, best charts of the winter within reliable timeframe too, so clearly NOT a fantasy this time. Could all change yet though even at t+9,600 minute (D4) timescales as that is a lot of minutes we must count down before we get there. 80/20 percent confidence though on a decent deep cold snap from Wednesday through Friday at least.

Edited January 8, 2017 by gottolovethisweather

[radiohead]

Yes, too far south this time. Cold but dry here. Still, an extended cold spell versus the very messy GFS.

[Bolton67]

9 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

At 168hrs it's game over for cold spell as milder air moves over the top.

The ecm is exactly what the Meto are predicting......Cold spell followed by milder air

Really ? 

 

come on now the 168hr chart does not show that..even at 192 hrs it's cold and frosty. 

To many wrist slashing over the top post..

[Mucka]

JMA starting to think "ridge?"

GFS beginning to look quite lonely.

Edited January 8, 2017 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Mucka said:

JMA startong to think "ridge"

The one issue I have, as shown on the ECM tonight, is if we don't get enough latitude to that ridging we will eventually end back at square one- low heights over the top will eventually overwhelm that high and it will be pushed back into mainland Europe.

[Mark Neal.]

So we end the ECM 12z miles apart from the GFS output oncemore. The high perhaps orientated slightly different with the colder easterly flow not effecting us compared to previous, but the high in a more than reasonable position for something pehaps beyond that. Its a promising run and miles apart from the GFS, more akined to the UKMO, however not as amplified. 

[bobbydog]

30 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The big 3 at 120 - UKMO looks a tad acute ECM looks about right to me-

Make your own mind up

UKMO ECM GFS

@January Snowstorm- ECM is not halfway - its ECM & UKMO v GFS mate

 

Actually I think the ECM is a near miss.

The UKMO looks better. Still plenty of room for improvement at that range though.

[nick sussex]

Upto T168hrs the ECM was the same evolution as this mornings run. A small issue arises near Svalbard with a bit too much energy spilling east at T192hrs and this stops the ne ridging. However it doesn't back the GFS run and that should come as a relief.

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The one issue I have, as shown on the ECM tonight, is if we don't get enough latitude to that ridging we will eventually end back at square one- low heights over the top will eventually overwhelm that high and it will be pushed back into mainland Europe.

Could well be Crewe but at least we would prolong the cold and any snow cover for a while and we would probably get a rinse repeat pattern after a few days - worse case any ridge.

Edited January 8, 2017 by Mucka

[bradymk]

ECM ending with the high over us. Regardless of the variation of positioning of that high towards end of the run past couple of runs, its great to see low heights throughout Iberia and Southern Europe. 

The run ends with low heights throughout Iberia and the med, one thing that has not come to reality really yet this winter, particularly Spain and Portugal.

Edited January 8, 2017 by bradythemole

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Could well be Crewe but at least we would prolong the cold and any snow cover for a while and we would probably get a rinse repeat pattern after a few days.

We'd be relying on the HP pulling out west again- but when you're relying on upstream to play ball, you're dancing with the devil. 

ECM 240 hrs looks like we would see a rinse repeat scenario but I'd rather not chance it at all and just get the HP at a more favourable latitude in the first place!

You can see from the day 10 ECM chart, it wants the vortex aligned N-S across the polar regions. We need to take advantage of this whilst we are in a situation which doesn't favour Euro HP sat around for too long. In reality HP cannot sit across Europe for too long in that scenario- it has to squirm one side or the other of the N-S aligned vortex.

Edited January 8, 2017 by CreweCold

[Frosty.]

The Euros are again best for cold as they were at this time yesterday except the ukmo is now looking best going forward..let's enjoy this arctic incursion, some of us are going to see a covering of snow, some significant accumulations too..at last!

[igloo]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The one issue I have, as shown on the ECM tonight, is if we don't get enough latitude to that ridging we will eventually end back at square one- low heights over the top will eventually overwhelm that high and it will be pushed back into mainland Europe.

yes the last two frames from the ECM does have another bartlett high forming i hope this is not a trend as its happend to often this season but its miles better than the GFS 

[Gowon]

At least the states warm up on the ECM240

 

[knocker]

Looking at the ecm Friday looks the most likely candidate for some snow, rain, strong winds At 06 Friday a depression lies just off the coast of southern Norway with fronts near Thurso. Strong northerly winds will probable bring frequent showers to the north, snow on the high ground. By 12z the low is near Denmark and the strong N. winds are blowing down the North Sea where they could easily reach gale force and with the UK in a cool north westerly. In the next 24 hours the low skoots off to Poland and the Azores nudges in from the south west

Edit by the end the ecm is looking like the EPS anomaly from this morning

Edited January 8, 2017 by knocker

[Ali1977]

Over snow cover this weekend and early next week I think we might break that -10c barrier in any lengthy clear sky's. Severe frosts are next best to snow so that would be nice!! 

[Singularity]

The ECM 12z seems a reasonable compromise, and nicely in line with recent EC ensemble suites. It also leaves us in not a bad position should tropical activity decide to provide further upstream amplification - this being among the most uncertain forcing aspects at the moment. ECM is a little more keen on the Pacific activity over the coming week or so which may be helping it to retain an overall amplified picture.

[Frosty.]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Over snow cover this weekend and early next week I think we might break that -10c barrier in any lengthy clear sky's. Severe frosts are next best to snow so that would be nice!! 

Good point Ali, some very cold nights over the snow fields..goodness doesn't that sound better than the mild mush we had on Christmas day