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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Just now, NorthernRab said:

Phewf! 

 

ECM1-120.GIF?08-0

 

Yup between UKMO and GFS but good enough to prolong cold and get some form of Atlantic ridge.

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Posted
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold , snow . Hot sunny
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire

ecm follows the ukmo . Could the gfs and its ensembles be all wrong at such short range ? :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Here are all 3 at 120, yes the ECM has less amplification but it's completely different to the GFS and I would back the ECM at day 5  anyday, that along with UKM support.

IMG_7401.GIF

IMG_7403.GIF

IMG_7404.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM is a carbon copy of this mornings run at T120hrs. The UKMO whilst great is perhaps a bit too amplified and overdone, of course we'd love it to be correct but given the GFS horror show I will gladly settle for the ECM as long as it delivers the easterly!

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Not sure where you get 24h event from, even GFS is a 2/3 day event.

All parts have roughly a 24 hour window for snow (Thursday for the West and Friday further East) I'm not including dry or frosty as that should be v normal for early Jan

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

The UKMO achieves the extra amplification by cutting off an area of low heights which propped up the ridge a bit further, other the ECM so far looks like following previous output which is good enough.

ECM1-120.GIF?08-0   ECM1-144.GIF?08-0

The UKMO is literally perfection and would develop an even colder easterly than the previous ECM outputs given the deeper cold pool caused by the stronger initial amplification.

The ECM op remains fairly consistent with its evolution though will likely this time end up cold and dry by the end of next weekend, but it remains in the ball park of settled/cold and cold with snow showers into week 2.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

ECM is not as good as the UKMO but not as bad as the GFS at T144. Still could be heading towards a Scandi high scenario here....

ECM                                                                UKMO                                                              GFS

ECM1-144.GIF?08-0UW144-21.GIF?08-17gfs-0-144.png?12?12

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham

Just wondering,what's happened to the GFS parallel?  Not seen it on here for a while

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

ECM at 120hrs a mix of gfs and ecm.

24hour event for most which is better than nought

72 hour plus for many though.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, January Snowstorm said:

All parts have roughly a 24 hour window for snow (Thursday for the West and Friday further East) I'm not including dry or frosty as that should be v normal for early Jan

As long as that flow remains west of N, the cold uppers over the Irish Sea should promote shower activity down into the west Midlands. Even when heights rise from the west this is the case. 

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Posted
  • Location: West Devon
  • Weather Preferences: We've hit the giant daddy jackpot!
  • Location: West Devon

Nothing sustained about the current models predicting a cold snap. No ridging across Scandinavia or in mid-Atlantic, just business as usual with the jet. These Arctic incursions via the NW rarely bring in a change for anything resembling long-term and the jet will bring in SW's and a swift change back to normality. Ensemble data indicates nothing to get excited about.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

All parts have roughly a 24 hour window for snow (Thursday for the West and Friday further East) I'm not including dry or frosty as that should be v normal for early Jan

Its more than 24 hours JS regardless although again, details at this stage are fairly elusive in anycase.

Good too see the ECM has not backtracked towards the GFS as perhaps feared by some, fairly similar to the UKMO but with some minor differences as would be expected at this stage. The only issue with the ECM run is I would like the centre of that low at 96 hours to be near or over Norway therefore it reduces the chance of the milder sector getting too close to the UK but apart from that, can't really complain.

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

At 144hrs the ecm tonight has the cold uppers East of Ireland whereas this morning they were 100 miles West of Ireland.

Minor changes day by day can prove a lot by Friday

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Just now, Polar Walker said:

Nothing sustained about the current models predicting a cold snap. No ridging across Scandinavia or in mid-Atlantic, just business as usual with the jet. These Arctic incursions via the NW rarely bring in a change for anything resembling long-term and the jet will bring in SW's and a swift change back to normality. Ensemble data indicates nothing to get excited about.

What models are you looking at out of interest? Very strange post given the UKMO and EC output, sounds like you're basing that on the GFS ensemble suite

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

All parts have roughly a 24 hour window for snow (Thursday for the West and Friday further East) I'm not including dry or frosty as that should be v normal for early Jan

Strongly disagree but we will see what develops.

Based on current output and worse case scenario of GFS.

 NW UK will start to see snow showers as early as Wed afternoon/evening pushing South and East through Thursday into Friday. Chance of more prolonged snow for Some Friday. Saturday snow showers continue but confined more to Eastern UK, possibly rain and snow into far West in afternoon/evening.

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