Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Long haul to mild]

So IF (and I know how big an 'if' it is when another model shows the kind of weather we are used to having) the UKMO 144 chart verified, would it likely lead to an Easterly along the line?

Just asking for a friend...... 

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Go on Nick, give us your best guess.  I would estimate -10/-12 on the eastern side with -6/-8 across western areas?

Using the table it looks a bit colder than that, theres a patch over East Anglia that's closer to -14 uppers. That's why I was shocked, I think that shortwave which runs down has pinched a piece of the PV!

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

However, history tells me that - usually - there is always at least a little movement towards the GFS when it stubbornly sticks to a pattern. Worth bearing in mind.

History also tells the GFS can actually get the initial idea more right then it will go off on one, be quite stubborn in doing this which causes a lot of people in here to be anxious only for it to eventually revert back more to its original idea. There is no doubt yesterdays GFS runs were more amplified however of course there is still that element of doubt just how long this cold blast will last.

I think one thing i have noticed is the models are bringing the showery convective weather a bit further forward so the fun and games first start in Western Scotland and Northern Ireland early on Wednesday morning before transferring more widely across western parts during the afternoon and evening time so the snow opportunity could arrive as early as Wednesday afternoon for some.

One thing to also note especially if the UKMO comes off is the winds, severe gales likely, especially in coastal locations and also to the East of the Pennines, blizzards at lower levels is certainly a possibility.

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

If the BBC long range says this it makes me a little worried for the UKMO outcome 

They are going by 00z they wouldn't have time to look at 12z yet. 

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, Long haul to mild said:

So IF (and I know how big an 'if' it is when another model shows the kind of weather we are used to having) the UKMO 144 chart verified, would it likely lead to an Easterly along the line?

Just asking for a friend...... 

LOL can we get the UKMO and ECM verified first before talking up an Easterly? That would be the kiss of death, especially telling relatives and friends one is coming! 

 

PS 

Eyes down on the UKMO fax charts later peeps

Edited January 8, 2017 by Mucka

[Long haul to mild]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

If the BBC long range says this it makes me a little worried for the UKMO outcome 

The latest output from the UKMO model won't have been factored in to any public forecasts as yet, and the 12Z is a better prospect for cold than the 00Z.

[SMU]

Here we go UKMO uppers & 500MB thickness

Norwich 516 thickness along the 1000MB contour = -11.5c @850Mb

Oxford 520 thickness along the 1005MB contour = -11.6c @ 850MB

500 thickness -

Norwich ~ 516 DAM

Oxford ~ 517 DAM 

Also remember the post the other day about the GFS gradually morphing into the Euros well the first step tonight @ 192

the first chart 06z 204 has no easterly flow over europe & weak scandi heights

12z has an easterly flow now developing & much better scandi heights 

based on history the GFS will take another 3-6 runs to reverse to the Euros

Best

S

[mother nature rocks]

8 minutes ago, snowice said:

How on earth do you do a weather forecast with models not agreeing at96hrs

You don't leave it to the pros lol

[BARRY]

Before NYD it was all GFs then along came the UKMO and we went mild now it seems the UKMO is wrong good god what's going on.

[tinybill]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

If the BBC long range says this it makes me a little worried for the UKMO outcome 

well it  will be  all eyes on country  file  soon   the  models are  saying there a cold  snap coming the weather forecast i like watching  is the   one  before the news  at 10 on the bbc news  channel, fingers  crossed!!!!

[pyrotech]

6 minutes ago, snowice said:

How on earth do you do a weather forecast with models not agreeing at96hrs

Which is why the Met O have been sensibly cautious and only really today after 4pm did Matt mention 

"snow for one or two"

These set up are notoriously difficult to forecast beyond 5 days and in our little Island even small difference make huge  differences in 5 days. 

Its only fools like me that make a forecast based on synoptic  with such shannon entropy involved.

however whats the fun in trying to forecast a dead cert when the challenge is to read the models and decipher which is more likely.

God i can not wait for ECM tonight

[nick sussex]

As you can see I'm not great at using that table! I looked at the wrong colour, anyway its very cold regardless and supports snow for everyone.

[Long haul to mild]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

LOL can we get the UKMO and ECM verified first before talking up an Easterly? That would be the kiss of death, especially telling relatives and friends one is coming! 

Haha sorry, but NW'lys are notoriously poor for my neck of the woods so I use the model output to chase any sign of an Easterly possible, however unlikely it may be!

I do find the differences at such an early timescale quite staggering. For me this shows that all the supercomputers in the world struggle with the chaotic nature of weather!

Edited January 8, 2017 by Long haul to mild

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Using the table it looks a bit colder than that, theres a patch over East Anglia that's closer to -14 uppers. That's why I was shocked, I think that shortwave which runs down has pinched a piece of the PV!

Wow, that's very cold indeed......and could be here by next Saturday!  Just watch the ECM mess things up later!

[shotski]

12 minutes ago, Schmalex said:

Don't be so ridiculous. The charts have consistently failed to be accurate beyond 4 days and can't even give clarity on what next weekend looks like, let alone the remaining 9 weeks of winter...

Why's it ridiculous ? If the GFS does prove to be correct and the Atlantic does win out it could eat up a large chunk of winter before we get another major pattern change. With no SSW forecast in the near future it could be a long road to decent cold. Anyway let's hope the ECM sticks to it's guns tonight and the Atlantic is held at bay, my bet would probably be a continuation of mid Atlantic ridge. 

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Using the table it looks a bit colder than that, theres a patch over East Anglia that's closer to -14 uppers. That's why I was shocked, I think that shortwave which runs down has pinched a piece of the PV!

I'll be surprised if the uppers were really that cold as Northerlies struggle to bring uppers that cold towards Shetland nevermind that far South and we have to bear in mind that any kinks in the isobars we see can lead to smaller milder sectors. I do think uppers of around -10 could well be quite widespread though and with low thicknesses then there should be quite a bit of instability around.

[Bolton67]

52 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

No change so far from GFS

Main period to watch is t144 to t168 does it follow ECM in remaining cold or does it follow it's 06z in going more westerly

No comment on the 12z UKMO ? 

You was quick on the button to comment on the GFS 12z 

[Seasonality]

21 minutes ago, IDO said:

GEM still says no: 

GFS at D9 is poor: 

EURO's -v- Conus'

  

 

 

GEM and a 9 day GFS chart now to disprove a cold spell. You've missed your calling as a comedian.  Meanwhile according to GFS Greece remains a cold magnet. What a fantastic season for them. @Alekos I'm looking at you! 

GFS tries an ECM type pattern but goes flat. And that damned azoroslug is ubiquitous again. You could make a horror film about it "Azoroslug, The Winter Killer!"

 

 

Edited January 8, 2017 by Seasonality

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I'll be surprised if the uppers were really that cold as Northerlies struggle to bring uppers that cold towards Shetland nevermind that far South and we have to bear in mind that any kinks in the isobars we see can lead to smaller milder sectors. I do think uppers of around -10 could well be quite widespread though and with low thicknesses then there should be quite a bit of instability around.

Looking at the UK view  rather than overall Europe its colder than -10, I do wish the UKMO could just release the 850's upto T144hrs. You'd think it was Top Secret information the way they guard this.We can blame the stingy government for forcing the UKMO to need to keep so much info behind closed doors, its not properly funded and so needs more in the way of commercial money that's why they don't release so much free info.

Edited January 8, 2017 by nick sussex

[Summer Sun]

14 minutes ago, Bolton67 said:

No comment on the 12z UKMO ? 

You was quick on the button to comment on the GFS 12z 

 

 

 

I was away when UKMO updated

Others have already commented on it no need for any more comment

If UKMO follows ECM please no more comments like that I will be away again

 

Edited January 8, 2017 by Summer Sun

[snowice]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

As you can see I'm not great at using that table! I looked at the wrong colour, anyway its very cold regardless and supports snow for everyone.

I am colour blind to I only see blue

[Polar Maritime]

Please leave media forecast and general chat out and stick to discussing what the model outputs are showing.

Thanks please continue.

 

[Mucka]

11 minutes ago, Long haul to mild said:

Haha sorry, but NW'lys are notoriously poor for my neck of the woods so I use the model output to chase any sign of an Easterly possible, however unlikely it may be!

If UKMO is right, then snow could and probably would show up anywhere across the UK.

chances of an Easterly would be decent, would obviously depend on amount amplification and forcing, Currently it doesn't look as though any Easterly would be that sustained but evolving picture so I would wait until tomorrow evening at the earliest before mentioning any Easterly prospects and that is if we get cross model agreement on the ridge. All that said, so long as we get the ridge we will prolong the cold by at least 72 hours compared to GFS 12z IMO.

 

Edited January 8, 2017 by Mucka

[snowy weather]

What's the reason it is so mild in the UK and Europe is in the freezer?

I mean like what is the current synoptic setup to cause these conditions and weather split?

Edited January 8, 2017 by snowy weather

[Lampostwatcher]

best charts of the winter so far and not in FI land 

its been along month of model watching since late nov lots of ups and downs 

now please ECM gives us what most of us are addicted to 

the WHITE stuff