Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

I said this morning about the 12z been more amplified than the 0z. Wonder Whether there's any credence behind this or its just a coincidence of late? Either way the models continue to play the easterly card game!

I'm beginning to wonder whether this is a data issue. Could it be there are more observations in key areas on either run and these make a bigger difference than normal to the NWP. Of course this means we don't know which output is more accurate!

[January Snowstorm]

27 minutes ago, Tristrame said:

It's not bad,I forgot to include Meath in the snow county list

coasts would see sleet but much of the counties mentioned are well inland,and far enough north to receive showers from the Northwest or North,they hit as far South as Dublin usually and much of the west too

It's a transient 12 to 24 hour blast at most. Cold with hill snow quickly melting a day later is what I see

It does find something better at day 10 alright but that's pure FI

Edited January 7, 2017 by January Snowstorm

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

The meto chose to drop the possibility from their 30 dayer and right on cue

10 days doesn't equal 16 to 30 days?

very keen to see if the eps get the mean ridge anomoly high enough to show a chance that the ridge can be undercut. Certainly evidence on that day 10 that it could happen and if it does, the pattern is changed for nw Europe. 

[Frosty.]

Just 3 words spring to mind about the Ecm 12z..Bring it on!

P.S.. 3 more words..let it snow

[Gael_Force]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I'm beginning to wonder whether this is a data issue. Could it be there are more observations in key areas on either run and these make a bigger difference than normal to the NWP. Of course this means we don't know which output is more accurate!

Mike Ventrice was highlighting this discrepancy between 00z and 12z outputs last winter. I'm fairly sure it was discussed in here and was thought to be something to do with snowcover data.

[knocker]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep crystal clear on a gif

Okay I'll hold my hands up on this, clearly I was wrong.

[nick sussex]

Well who needs a lie down? Certainly the ECM is the best output all winter with an improving upstream pattern aswell. I'm trying my best to refrain from getting too excited as the real fun and games are past whats considered the more reliable timeframe.

I do think we're owed a bit of luck given the winter so far.

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

10 days doesn't equal 16 to 30 days?

very keen to see if the eps get the mean ridge anomoly high enough to show a chance that the ridge can be undercut. Certainly evidence on that day 10 that it could happen and if it does, the pattern is changed for nw Europe. 

That's why I'm an accountant it was tongue in cheek. 

[PersianPaladin]

The simple fact that such low thicknesses are making their way to the British Isles in the reliable time-frame is good enough news for me. It makes things more interesting from a synoptic point of view, as I'm sure many here have gotten tired of the current dominant regime. Snow or no snow, I shall be pleased to see more energy and vigour from such cold cyclogenesis.

[SMU]

12 minutes ago, knocker said:

Okay I'll hold my hands up on this, clearly I was wrong.

No worries.... fair play...

 

Back to the ECM ( which is pretty identical to UKMO ) shows a good wave at 192 to elongate us from a snap to a spell & the emphasis of wintryness transitions away from the NW & North to the East & SE- fairs fair !

I wish we had the ECM snowdepths as the 168 chart is suggestive of some good snowfall- a good few inches in the NW - maybe the peak district will be the sweet spot in that timeframe'!

[Frosty.]

Honestly, what a cracker, who said we couldn't get upgrades?

Hopefully this means the models are right, especially the magnificent Ecm 12z so some of us who haven't seen a single snowflake so far this winter will be rewarded later next week onwards!

[booferking]

14 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

It's a transient 12 to 24 hour blast at most. Cold with hill snow quickly melting a day later is what I see

It does find something better at day 10 alright but that's pure FI

Yea it probably is in the extreme South of Ireland and South England but a 3 Day event Thu-Sat for NI a good part of Ireland Scotland NW England and so on, looking like the best cold spell so far this Winter for the favoured locations.

And if the ECM is on to the right trend then the rest of the uk will do well day10 onwards.

Edited January 7, 2017 by booferking

[Sky Full]

I present the GEM, ECM, and GFS at +144 hrs as currently showing:

All looking to be in agreement and quite promising especially when taking into account the later frames.  The direction of the airflow could at last bring some interest for my location.  However, havnt we been here several times before already this winter?  This is still SIX DAYS away.  Isn't it more likely that the whole set-up will have shifted about 1000 miles east of the position shown by the time we get to +144 hrs?  Which leaves the high pressure back over the UK and no N or NW but a gentle circular rotation which has been the form horse pretty much since the beginning of December.  I would love to be wrong but I am trying to second guess the models which this year seem bent on giving us plenty to talk about then whipping it away again with just a few days to go.....

 

[BARRY]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Honestly, what a cracker, who said we couldn't get upgrades?

Hopefully this means the models are right, especially the magnificent Ecm 12z so some of us who haven't seen a single snowflake so far this winter will be rewarded later next week onwards!

some of us ain't seen a snowflake for 7 years lets hope the UKMO don't put the cabe wash on it

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Steady On

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

I present the GEM, ECM, and GFS at +144 hrs as currently showing:

All looking to be in agreement and quite promising especially when taking into account the later frames.  The direction of the airflow could at last bring some interest for my location.  However, havnt we been here several times before already this winter?  This is still SIX DAYS away.  Isn't it more likely that the whole set-up will have shifted about 1000 miles east of the position shown by the time we get to +144 hrs?  Which leaves the high pressure back over the UK and no N or NW but a gentle circular rotation which has been the form horse pretty much since the beginning of December.  I would love to be wrong but I am trying to second guess the models which this year seem bent on giving us plenty to talk about then whipping it away again with just a few days to go.....

 

I wouldn't worry about an eastwards shift in the pattern upto T144hrs. The Russian high locks the troughing into Europe and theres solid agreement on that. Its the bit afterwards that's more uncertain.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No worries.... fair play...

 

Back to the ECM ( which is pretty identical to UKMO ) shows a good wave at 192 to elongate us from a snap to a spell & the emphasis of wintryness transitions away from the NW & North to the East & SE- fairs fair !

I wish we had the ECM snowdepths as the 168 chart is suggestive of some good snowfall- a good few inches in the NW - maybe the peak district will be the sweet spot in that timeframe'!

Peak District you say.... i shall hold you to that Steve. its been a funny old 24 hrs model watching, this place was so down beat most of yesterday then the ECM 12Z yesterday showed us the light and todays runs have just made things look better and better

[Dancerwithwings]

3 minutes ago, BARRY said:

some of us ain't seen a snowflake for 7 years lets hope the UKMO don't put the cabe wash on it

 

Take a peak and make your own mind up, UKMO out to 180h on this site http://www.weathercharts.org/charts.htm

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Take a peak and make your own mind up, UKMO out to 180h on this site http://www.weathercharts.org/charts.htm

Nope. - that's GFS 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Take a peak and make your own mind up, UKMO out to 180h on this site http://www.weathercharts.org/charts.htm

The UKMO doesnt go to 180.

[SMU]

13 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Take a peak and make your own mind up, UKMO out to 180h on this site http://www.weathercharts.org/charts.htm

As excited as I got thats the GFS

Fingers crossed @More Snow

[bluearmy]

17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No worries.... fair play...

 

Back to the ECM ( which is pretty identical to UKMO ) shows a good wave at 192 to elongate us from a snap to a spell & the emphasis of wintryness transitions away from the NW & North to the East & SE- fairs fair !

I wish we had the ECM snowdepths as the 168 chart is suggestive of some good snowfall- a good few inches in the NW - maybe the peak district will be the sweet spot in that timeframe'!

Generally a hills thing steve 

the ecm snowcover charts on weatherbell are pretty unclear as they don't really take into account settling and are more snowfall rather than snowcover

Day 7 is a borders event/ w side Peak District and only about an inch over the borders but rather more over the Peak District as you guessed

will change anyway!

 

Edited January 7, 2017 by bluearmy

[Banbury]

36 minutes ago, That ECM said:

The meto chose to drop the possibility from their 30 dayer and right on cue

Also Matt H said forget about an Easterly ..............................funny old game

Should also add , fruitless exercise talking about snow here and there so far out , at 24 hours its a tough call let alone 144 - 168 and so on

Edited January 7, 2017 by Banbury

[Summer Sun]

Could be a fair bit of snow around from this especially so in the north but even the south may see some on the higher ground

[Dancerwithwings]

13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Nope. - that's GFS 

 

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The UKMO doesnt go to 180.

Whoops! Wonder why the UKMO GFS was so alike.....

Edited January 7, 2017 by Dancerwithwings