Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[gottolovethisweather]

18 minutes ago, Kieran said:

Snow again shown for Thursday. I wonder if it will be as widespread as the 12z GFS is suggesting:

 

 

Oh I certainly hope the GFS is onto something, and if the UKMO and ECM follow suit, D5 could be where all the wintry fun and games begin. Casting aside the transient and temporary accumulations likelihood for now, things are the best they've looked for a long time in England, let's say.

Edited January 7, 2017 by gottolovethisweather

[MattTarrant]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Low pressure sneaks in from the Atlantic at T168 bringing a mild sector and rain. Snow on northern edge. 

However, when the low clears it does once again draw in colder air!

[gottolovethisweather]

20 hours ago, gottolovethisweather said:

The first watch date is the 9th January which will likely provide some wintry interest to coldies up North say past Coventry or the Midlands if you like. With my main watch period from 12th January - 16th January being of wider interest to those in England for once, suffice to say Wales, Scotland and Ireland will also likely join in the wintry fun and games IF the broader pattern verifies as currently modelled. 

 

As I stated this yesterday, 20 hours on we might still (despite this being my unfavoured wobbly weekend runs) be bang on course for a decent snap of cold for a day or two at least?

[Mucka]

UKMO probably colder through the mid term than GFS with the trough digging a little further South. Secondary low to the NW ready to dive SE could be interesting depending on any associated warm sector.

[Eskimo]

A good few centimeters of snow for the north west there.

[JeffC]

1 minute ago, PerfectStorm said:

A good few centimeters of snow for the north west there.

we're used to that many inches! That's the trouble these days cm sounds more dramatic but it's basically 1-2 inches low level, 3-4 higher up

[I Cumbria Marra I]

2 minutes ago, JeffC said:

we're used to that many inches! That's the trouble these days cm sounds more dramatic but it's basically 1-2 inches low level, 3-4 higher up

Not really, havent had over 1cm since 2013 so id bite your arm off for 1-2 inches

[radiohead]

Decent snow totals for Scotland and Northwest especially up to T156.

[chicken soup]

16 minutes ago, Mucka said:

@156, it's nailed on Steve.

I'll take this run and bank it though thank you 

Which areas is this likely to affect, if it verifies...ever since I've been following the models ...6 years now, I've been hoping for a true polar low.

[Summer Sun]

West looks best for snow next weekend

[Richard Fisher]

5 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Decent snow totals for Scotland and Northwest especially up to T156.

Mostly snowless for the majority of Southern England though from that chart.

[Malcolm Edwards]

Just now, Richard Fisher said:

Mostly snowless for the majority of Southern England though from that chart.

A lot can change between now and then.could be better,or could be worse

 

[ArHu3]

Can anyone actually remember a similar chart from the past: a huge new foundland-atlantic-iberian superblock? Feb 1979 looks a bit similar but now very

 

[MattTarrant]

Just now, Richard Fisher said:

Mostly snowless for the majority of Southern England though from that chart.

Yes true, but the UKMO run is looking a little better in dragging the colder air down quicker than the GFS 12z. Though i wouldn't trust a GFS Precipitation chart if it was 3 days away!

[Mucka]

7 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Which areas is this likely to affect, if it verifies...ever since I've been following the models ...6 years now, I've been hoping for a true polar low.

Nobody can tell whether we will get an embedded shortwave trough at that range but with a good Northerly flow it can give widespread snow as there are no warm sectors associated and they generally travel North to South in the flow.

Wait to see if something is showing at T72 and less, often they don't show until 24hrs prior.

We had a big snow event in Manchester from one many years ago which went totally unforecast (forecast was for dry and frosty). 

Consequently even the main roads hadn't been gritted and it was a lovely walk home from my friends watching motorists driving sideways at 5MPH in a whiteout

Edited January 7, 2017 by Mucka

[chicken soup]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Nobody can tell whether we will get an embedded trough at that range but with a good Northerly flow it can give widespread snow as there are no warm sectors associated and they generally travel North to South in the flow.

Wait to see if something is showing as T72 and less, often they don't show until 24hrs prior.

We had a big snow event in Manchester from one many years which went totally unforecast (forecast was for dry and frosty). 

Consequently even the main roads hadn't been gritted it was a lovely walk home from my friends watching motorists driving sideways at 5MPH in a whiteout

Cheers for that Mucka...I'll wait and see if it's still there at 72hrs.

[AWD]

4 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Can anyone actually remember a similar chart from the past: a huge new foundland-atlantic-iberian superblock? Feb 1979 looks a bit similar but now very

 

Sorry mate, struggling a little there.

Could you mention a couple of similarities between your 2 charts please?

Just so I know where to look.  Thanks.

[phil nw.]

A couple of posts have been removed.Gut feelings and moans are for the banter thread please.

Ta

[ArHu3]

Just now, AWD said:

Sorry mate, struggling a little there.

Could you mention a couple of similarities between your 2 charts please?

Just so I know where to look.  Thanks.

low pressure diving to Mediterranean without a greenland block but with high pressure on east coast us/canada. I was asking for better comparisons though, maybe someone can find a similar setup

[Rocheydub]

1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

low pressure diving to Mediterranean without a greenland block but with high pressure on east coast us/canada. I was asking for better comparisons though, maybe someone can find a similar setup

With the greatest respect, those charts are chalk and cheese!

[radiohead]

10 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

Mostly snowless for the majority of Southern England though from that chart.

True, and heavy rain swings into the south 12 hours after that chart. That low could disappear on the next run through.

[terrier]

Not a bad looking ukmo and gfs. But for most of us away from highest hills will have a few hours of slushy snow which will be a blink and miss it affair. 

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, terrier said:

Not a bad looking ukmo and gfs. But for most of us away from highest hills will have a few hours of slushy snow which will be a blink and miss it affair. 

Don't blink! 

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, terrier said:

Not a bad looking ukmo and gfs. But for most of us away from highest hills will have a few hours of slushy snow which will be a blink and miss it affair. 

 

8 minutes ago, terrier said:

Not a bad looking ukmo and gfs. But for most of us away from highest hills will have a few hours of slushy snow which will be a blink and miss it affair. 

Not so sure about that terrier.

Think west yorkshire might do very nicely indeed and wrt the highest hills, im not sure, i think 100-150m should be plenty...:)

PS we got a good dump here mid November when the uppers were very similar, should be less sea moderation in mid Jan..not entirely sure what the uppers were for that dump in November actually..

Edited January 7, 2017 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

42 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Polar low at 156 trying to nudge towards scotland

Atlantic low at 168 rushing towards England