Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[radiohead]

T288

[Captain Shortwave]

10 minutes ago, radiohead said:

-8 uppers back into the SE at T234. Mostly dry but quite cold. Ice days up north.

Just for fun but the 18z does show an area of heavy precipitation moving south west towards East Anglia and the south east in association to that low meandering the other side of the north sea at day 10. Given the 850s that could potentially bring significant snow. I would happily take that from a purely selfish point of view. 

Add to that we finally end in an easterly.

   

Showers again pushing into the east as the 850s fall away again (around -8 to -10C covering most of the UK).

Oh come on haha

That will do, fronts being thrown northwards from France bringing persistent moderate to heavy snow. Stunning.

 

Edited January 6, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

GFS 240h and ECM 240h. Hmmm...

Given the position of the PV just days before and the fact the Siberian High has scarpered, it is quite insane to see such agreement on what most of us would have thought an extremely unlikely scenario 5 hours ago. Really????

[Mark Neal.]

Just now, radiohead said:

T288

& a 1050mb high to our NE... Almost a replica of the ECM at the same stage, which is remarkable at that range! 

[Pembroke Dangler]

That little shortwave to the east of Stockholm is scuppering our Russian/scandi high link up dam it.

 

got there in the end though 

Edited January 6, 2017 by Pembroke Dangler

[radiohead]

Low pressure over the Channel, cold air from the east...producing snow. Atlantic fronts heading towards the cold air...

[Mark wheeler]

13 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

GFS 240h and ECM 240h. Hmmm...

Blimey . I don't think ive  ever seen two charts from 2 different models at 240 look as similar as this . Fingers and everything else crossed its still there in the morning . 

Edit . I was looking east , big differences  in the Atlantic.

Edited January 6, 2017 by Mark wheeler

[Frosty.]

Well what a fabulous Gfs 18z we have tonight, much colder than last night with snow for many at various points of low res, superb!

Edited January 6, 2017 by Frosty.

[kumquat]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Given the position of the PV just days before and the fact the Siberian High has scarpered, it is quite insane to see such agreement on what most of us would have thought an extremely unlikely scenario 5 hours ago. Really????

I'm pretty sure Mr Murr had this in his sights a couple of days ago.

[nick sussex]

This is turning into the Poltergeist version of the model output.

The closet where the evil monster is based is the easterly outcome, the clown is the ECM, we're cowering on the bed like the little girl saying " no more"!

The psychic shouting don't go into the easterly light, the light is dangerous!

So we can now add the GFS 18hrs run into the closet!

What a rollercoaster day its been  with the GFS 18hrs run following the ECM and us all left wondering what the morning runs will bring.

[Nick F]

When GFS picks up on a new signal, it does really like to go 'off on one' in FI and doesn't do it by halves. Looks like it wants the formidable Russian high to join the party aswell.

Edited January 6, 2017 by Nick F

[bluearmy]

Impressive fi GFS in that it doesn't just blow the ridge away

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Both ECM and GFS look on the money evolution wise.  We progress but still it is FI and the way this winter has gone......BUT the synoptic set up is so close I am very 'hopeful' that UK has a decent winter episode ahead....very decent.  Now that has torn itb

 

BFTP

[weirpig]

But remember when you see the downgrades you rarely see the models upgrade.     Whoops  

[radiohead]

18Z GFS holds onto the cold right to the end of the run. What a turnaround from the ugly 12Z. No doubt it will be a cold outlier with the GEFS in deep FI. But the upgrades from the 12Z began within the reliable timeframe. Hopefully 0Z is consistent with that.

[markw2680]

6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

But remember when you see the downgrades you rarely see the models upgrade.     Whoops  

Just what I was thinking,  tbh after the 12z earlier I was ready to give up, I was expecting it to carry on so when it actually happened we ended up with a cool sharp blast and that's it. Anyway still plenty of time for further upgrades!!! Lol

[Pembroke Dangler]

Funny earlier on the Beeb showed Moscow at -23 and I thought strange showing that in the middle of a forecast when we are at +8/9 but I think they dropped some sort of hint as to they're thinking going forward. Just my take anyway could be nothing 

[Dancerwithwings]

Well this morning it was spam now we are back to steak, it's been a great day model watching, but for now feet back on the ground time, ATM just looking forward to seeing a flake or two hopefully come the end of this forthcoming week 

[Chris D]

I'm a lurker in this particular thread, although I haven't been posting very often recently. However monitoring the models from a tentative distance even I can tell ALL the models have set something up as early as T120 and I am looking forward to how this pans out past this point. I think there is now very high likelihood that some sort of good northerly is on the cards (with a good chance of snow).

How this reloads is another matter but just to remind you about how the past few winters went

 

 

Edited January 6, 2017 by Chris D

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A great way to end it.  Hope it comes off folks.....enjoy 2017

 

BFTP

[Long haul to mild]

Great outputs tonight but it always seems to me that the 0Zs (especially GFS) are the hangover runs that try to tell their late night counterparts to sober up and stop being so silly!

Really want to see the trends continued tomorrow even though the detail may be different. Snow fans really don't need more teases and let downs.

I suspect a middle ground solution will transpire, nothing as snowy as 18Z but not as flat and zonal as the 12z GFS either. It could just mean another UK high but maybe we could get it to edge North enough to give us a shot......

Edited January 6, 2017 by Long haul to mild

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Frosty, can I please 'Bank' the above.  Many thanks.

Yes

Isn't it great that we have had a wonderful ecm and gfs run within the last few hours..for coldies

A very good end to another rollercoaster day / night!

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[TEITS]

If tomorrows 0Zs follow the same trend then I may put my theory to the test.

This winter I have said the ensembles are useless and if you look at the 12Z GEFS ensembles then none of them suggest a continuation of the cold except 1 member. So lets if the ensembles follow the operationals rather than the other way round. I suspect the 18Z may look a bit different!!

[Nick F]

Like cigarette packets or alcohol adverts, the pages that show the NWP output should have health warnings, because you just have to wager, going on recent model performance, that 00z suite will pull the plug on what this evening's runs have built on.

But I'm wondering now if the models have finally got a handle on the Canadian PV lobes that appear to be extending further out across NE Canada and far NW Atlantic to amplify the flow or whether they will continue to have difficulty modelling the wobbling PV and we get more ups and downs? We'll see tomorrow and Sunday!

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

Funny earlier on the Beeb showed Moscow at -23 and I thought strange showing that in the middle of a forecast when we are at +8/9 but I think they dropped some sort of hint as to they're thinking going forward. Just my take anyway could be nothing 

They are just showing the big contrast with here - nothing else. Those numbers are impressive