Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Mark Neal.]

ECm shows it turning much colder towards end of next week with cold uppers from the NW/N. 

 

[There's a storm a coming]

ECM 192hrs looks good and heights trying to push towards Greenland 

Tasac

Edited January 5, 2017 by There's a storm a coming

[tight isobar]

Gfs12zecm 12z..for compare.

Northern hemisphericaly' minor differences' overall. .quite firm agree +192....

[nick sussex]

Exciting stuff from the ECM at T192hrs, that PV orientation if it swings anti clockwise could produce some real interest at T216hrs.

Almost there at T216hrs, we need ridging over the top of the troughing after this.

Edited January 5, 2017 by nick sussex

[bluearmy]

ignore the ecm op post day 8. far too much op run variation upstream to take the last two days too seriously. as per gfs op, day 7/8 leaves us in a decent place.

(though the 516 dam across much of the country at day 9 looks fun!)

Edited January 5, 2017 by bluearmy

[radiohead]

T216...

[knocker]

1 hour ago, Nouska said:

Nope.

The ECM did actually get one at four days out - you might remember? The mets were a bit at odds about it though.

Satellite and a beady eye nearer the time if upper air profile still the same.

PS - you can tell I'm missing the tropical season.

 

How about the little fella that starts off life off the east coast of Greenland at T132 and then runs with the jet to be over Scotland at T174 before traveling down the spine of Britain in the northerly circulation of the main low to the NE.? Perhaps not but still interesting.

[Day 10]

Just now, radiohead said:

T216...

It would be nice to finally look outside and then shout, it's it's it's snowing!!!

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ignore the ecm op post day 8. far too much op run variation upstream to take the last two days too seriously. as per gfs op, day 7/8 leaves us in a decent place.

You're beginning to sound like me! lol.

But yes lets not look too far ahead, at least we're moving in the right direction.

[chris55]

I think the 144-192 general flow is a good bet, where we go from here? Potential is apparent but no clear signal yet.

ECM 192

 

If we could get that Scandi trough to drop south at 216.....that would be nice  

[northwestsnow]

Ecm brings winter at last!!!

Its a cold run and gets colder, we can dream!

Edited January 5, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Pembroke Dangler]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

T216...

Quite exciting indeed now all we need is to get it to within t96 and we can start getting very excited would be ripe for some Irish Sea streamers moving through the western side of Wales and Cheshire gap perhaps.

[Zakos]

 The best Anomaly at 168+ from ECM and GFS ive seen all winter.

Low heights deepening over europe, and looks like the high may (finally) back far enough west for the UK to become cold/very cold

[Penrith Snow]

Up to 216 ECM is a cracker with a potent north westerly becoming northerly and the Atlantic ridge has legs.

Could this be a surprise route to cold?

Far more likely than a Scandy High.

Andy

[radiohead]

Day 10

[There's a storm a coming]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Day 10

Looks a corker at least a 3 day cold spell longer if the high can merge with the Russian one

Tasac

Edited January 5, 2017 by There's a storm a coming

[chris55]

Not bad at 240

[tight isobar]

Yes as bluarmy alludes' post day 8 particularly ignore. .However with modeled cross polar height and deep set northerly incursion. .its hard to do that.

Cracking northern hemisphere for uk cold!!!!

[Jason M]

I'd just be a bit wary tonight in case the 850s are being overcooked somewhat. Often seen in such scenario that come the day 850s get modified to -4 to -6c range which in a maritime flow may well need elevation over much of the UK for snow. To be clear I'm not saying it will be like that as too far away to know but IMHO caution still needed even if the synoptics prove correct (and that's a big if given many of the GEFS are a bit flatter and ECM has an over amplification issue).

[northwestsnow]

Can i saliviate over the ecm?

Its fanastic isnt ! Wondering if we might hear from matt hugo soon!!!

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, Penrith Snow said:

Up to 216 ECM is a cracker with a potent north westerly becoming northerly and the Atlantic ridge has legs.

Could this be a surprise route to cold?

Far more likely than a Scandy High.

Andy

GFS has been hinting at this in deep FI on and off for a few days now. We've been watching it slowly creep closer to the reliable timeframe and now the ECM is also showing the same potential so not a total surprise if it does happen. Still a lot of time for things to go wrong!

[Purga]

Very nice ECM 240h chart

Not particularly cold uppers but the synoptics are packed with potential

 

[stewfox]

44 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

 

Not helpful for newbies with totally different posts regarding GFS 12z

Over the last few weeks the GFS (runs 4 times a day) has thrown out some nice charts for cold but usually in FI (ie post T168)

The one below is T222

Until such charts come into the reliable time frame most folk will be weary

 

[Stuie]

Can`t help getting the feeling you are pushing as hard as you can against a brick wall (Azores HP) and at some point you tire and it wins. It does show signs of trying to ridge up to Greenland but almost a half hearted effort. The heights around Greenland are keeping up though. On the major positive note, it appears a long way back to zonality.

[bluearmy]

Two things - how the hell is this evolution a surprise to anyone ?

and the eps have been notable in their desire to drop uppers days 8-12 to quite low mean values so -8 is not necessarily off the table