Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[johnholmes]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

But you could try to guess surface flow possibilities based on the 500mb lines, which is what I think Nick is doing?

very true but it is a very difficult thing to do.

The inference that the NOAA 6-10 this evening fits the GFS idea at 12z is in fact, again in my view, not far off the mark. But it is the anomaly in heights in the Atlantic, coupled with the troughing well east in Europe that is allowing the surface features to run ESE bringing colder air into the UK. This is something I have suggested for the past two days. The lines Nick drew were what was puzzling me. They appeared to be drawn along the anomaly lines. They don't actually exist and certainly have nothing to do with the surface flow.

off to bed will chat via p tomorrow if anyone wishes

cheers folks-the cold is coming, honest!

 

Edited January 4, 2017 by johnholmes

[knocker]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Dont you recall this debate with me in December knocks? It does take a small leap of faith in the anomolies being accurate in representing where the surface features will lie.   

Vaguely blue but that was an entirely different set up if I remember. I agree that surface features moving through within the upper pattern could produce a N/NE but this has nowt to do with the orientation of the anomalies on that chart. Anyway now time to move on and continue the search of the Holy Grail............

Edited January 4, 2017 by knocker

[sorepaw1]

Do you guys think this could be the next named storm for the uk if it was to materialise at T+204 hrs.

 

[Nick F]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

I am not able to chat about this at the moment but will try and explain what the 500mb anoaly charts actually show. Just briefly now

1) The predicted contour flow ( On NOAA charts these are show in green). You could somewhat not exactly say they are isobars at 500mb

2) The dotted blue and red lines on NOAA charts are -ve and +ve height anomalies for the areas marked. Nothing to do with any surface flow.

 

I was never under the impression that the red/blue lines were denoting mslp, given they are 500mb anomalies.

But enough humiliation from the ex MetO duffers, a nasty depression running SE across Scotland next Friday with some cold air tucked in behind. Quite a strong/active jet next week moving in across the Uk, so quite a stormy period we could be entering of the likes we haven't been used too.

[nick sussex]

I'd urge people to avoid any excitement about the GFS's near miss with disaster and subsequent interest because we're one phase away from disaster. Even after this near miss the upstream pattern is more flat than the earlier 12hrs run and it will be hard going to get the high far enough north as per the earlier run.

[TEITS]

I am rather encouraged by todays output. The NW,lys look rather tame but plenty of promise from the end of next week (14th Jan onwards).

E,ly inbound on the 18Z!

[radiohead]

Winds gusting inland 110 km/h with heavy snow in places? (140 km/h in Scotland)

[ghoneym]

Been meaning to ask this for a while, why are the previous runs on the GFS not available at +237 & +240 ?

Cheers

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I'd urge people to avoid any excitement about the GFS's near miss with disaster and subsequent interest because we're one phase away from disaster. Even after this near miss the upstream pattern is more flat than the earlier 12hrs run and it will be hard going to get the high far enough north as per the earlier run.

Now now Nick, it's trying 

[Purga]

GFS 18z shaping up very nicely in FI

 

 

 

Edited January 4, 2017 by Purga

[stewfox]

11 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

What's not to like about this

Love the chart but its FI again 

We have seen downgrades as charts enter the reliable many times e.g

18z 4/1  for 8/1

18z 29/12 for 8/1

Edited January 4, 2017 by stewfox

[Eskimo]

Can I get excited (again) now? The same theme once again!

[radiohead]

Here we go again....

[Jason H]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I'd urge people to avoid any excitement about the GFS's near miss with disaster and subsequent interest because we're one phase away from disaster. Even after this near miss the upstream pattern is more flat than the earlier 12hrs run and it will be hard going to get the high far enough north as per the earlier run.

Please. At least let us drool at the FI eye candy. We'll leave the serious stuff off Euro slugs and shortwaves to the experts

[NeilN]

I believe it will come off - have faith and patience. January 1987 the remix is on it's way. 

[Ice Day]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

Vaguely blue but that was an entirely different set up if I remember. I agree that surface features moving through within the upper pattern could produce a N/NE but nowt to do with the orientation of the anomalies on that chart. Anyway now time to move on and continue the search of the Holy Grail............

I think we've found it at 288 Knocker

 

[winterof79]

5 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Love the chart but its FI again 

We have seen downgrades as charts enter the reliable many times see below

18z 4/1  for 8/1

18z 29/12 for 8/1

Time will tell.The output is getting colder around the 13/14th each run

As I posted before only a matter of time before the high shifts favourably for us.Lets face it,it doesn't have to be a massive westward correction

Edited January 4, 2017 by winterof79

[radiohead]

A battleground this time

[Rocheydub]

Brilliant. Nuts FI. Yet again.

One day these will verify. 

[karlos1983]

Just now, Rocheydub said:

Brilliant. Nuts FI. Yet again.

One day these will verify. 

Yes, probably in may knowing our luck 

 

[tight isobar]

I need this in my life +48-96 hrs!!!!

Anyway its not as clean evolution as its 12z sister' but gets there in the end.

Some would argue as 12zwas cleaner in evolution and gets there. ..so does the 18 suite even after certain dramas.

Nonetheless' some REAL food for thought. ...

And some de-icer and shovels for good measure! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

14 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I was never under the impression that the red/blue lines were denoting mslp, given they are 500mb anomalies.

But enough humiliation from the ex MetO duffers, a nasty depression running SE across Scotland next Friday with some cold air tucked in behind. Quite a strong/active jet next week moving in across the Uk, so quite a stormy period we could be entering of the likes we haven't been used too.

In terms of today's output...I have to say, I'm slightly more optimistic today than I was last night. BUT, as Nick S has pointed out, we still need to get the removal of Euro heights ideally sub 120 hrs to make relatively sure that it'll be the eventual outcome.

I'm not holding my breath just yet!

Edited January 4, 2017 by CreweCold

[radiohead]

The cold air wins the battleground in the east at the end of the run. Rain on the other side. This setup with certainly make for some interesting weather watching with a knife edge between floods and winter wonderlands!

Edited January 4, 2017 by radiohead

[Nick F]

Would be some nasty conditions over northern hills with that deep low next Friday - blizzards anyone? Thankfully good chance it may not verify.

Yet again the Scandi high in FI like the 12z, which maybe linked to the model taking MJO into phase 8 day 11 which amplifies the flow, but as I mentioned earlier, the GFS/GEFS maybe too progressive with the MJO.

Snowy E/NEly for east coast?

 

 

Edited January 4, 2017 by Nick F

[Pembroke Dangler]

Crazy model watching today is it on is it off the models are firming up on where the placement of the Azores high will be in a weeks time this for me will be the game changer if only we can get it to move further into the western Atlantic and ridge towards Greenland/Iceland. If not well I'm off skiing to Borovets in early Feb that's when I'll be seeing my snow -24 there on Saturday night brrrr