Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[knocker]

The GEFS anomalies are interesting this evening for two reasons. Well that I could find. The 8-13 upstream is consistent with previous but down stream has more pronounced ridging in the western Atlantic and a deeper trough to the east which, quite importantly, is tending towards a positive tilt. And then the evolution from there which has been mentioned previously Be afraid, be very afraid.

Edited January 4, 2017 by knocker

[chris55]

Well for me GFS FI is not quite as outlandish as it may seem.

We have had many many FI runs of late from the GFS with a similar theme. And for me when I see GFS repeat a pattern in FI consistently (but not always on each run) then I take note to a certain degree.

Also we have to look at the consistency of the longer term ensemble anomalies, which Blue army helpfully posts and analyses, and their trend to drop the trough down into Europe in the 10-15 day range.

Now, personally I'm just starting to grasp how to interpret the anomaly charts and they basically provide a background signal for the broader pattern without highlighting the details within the wider sphere.

GFS FI keeps toying with various ways of lowering pressure over Europe with differing results for us. The 12z today highlights one of the better scenarios within the anomaly, i.e high pressure establishing to the north.

While this trend to lower pressure into Europe holds then that certainly expands the possibility for us to "get lucky"  with localised synoptic pattern.

And as I said GFS 12z does us well

 

Edited January 4, 2017 by chris55

[radiohead]

Good signal for a cold spell around 13th-15th, after that...uncertainty. Op was one of the coldest in deeper FI though.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

14 minutes ago, knocker said:

The GEFS anomalies are interesting this evening for two reasons. Well that I could find. The 8-13 upstream is consistent with previous but down stream has more pronounced ridging in the western Atlantic and a deeper trough to the east which, quite importantly, is tending towards a positive tilt. And then the evolution from there which has been mentioned previously Be afraid, be very afraid.

Afraid of what?

 

BFTP

[doctor32]

5 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Good signal for a cold spell around 13th-15th, after that...uncertainty. Op was one of the coldest in deeper FI though.

Consistant signal from the gfs now for a good while, real drop around said time frame and to be honest anything could happen after that (hopefully for the more cold outlook)

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Afraid of what?

 

BFTP

The obvious conclusion from those charts. A transient period of wintry inclement weather with troughs tracking SE to be followed by ridging from the SW and a nice quiet spell with temps just below average. Nirvana        or not.

Edited January 4, 2017 by knocker

[bobbydog]

Keeping the dream alive!!!

[AWD]

The 12z CMA also loses the European heights in week 2, with some Atlantic amplification & a deep trough dropping south over Scandinavia, the output finishes on quite a widespread wintry note;

 

[doctor32]

Surely all paths must lead to a colder outlook now? 

[A.J]

one liners and ramps etc to the model banter thread please

[That ECM]

52 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

0-5 days - reliable

6-10 days - 50/50

10 days+ - don't even bother.

Southwesterly 15 plus days

Northerly 0 - 5 days 50/50

Easerterly 0 - about half an hour reliable

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

15 minutes ago, knocker said:

The obvious conclusion from those charts. A transient period of wintry inclement weather with troughs tracking SE to be followed by ridging from the SW and a nice quiet spell with temps just below average. Nirvana        or not.

Afraid?  Not at all, nothing to fear......and that looks like cold E to ESE winds for many....

 

BFTP

 

 

Edited January 4, 2017 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[PersianPaladin]

48 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

And you trust the GFS not a chance I'm staying well away from the GFS I'm sticking with ukmo and ecm.

 

Trusting GFS past the T192 mark is sort of like trusting Sauron's Ring Of Power. The ring must be destroyed!

Meanwhile, tonight temps could get as low as -9C in parts of England. Let's not forget that there is substantial cold not too far away.

Edited January 4, 2017 by PersianPaladin

[tight isobar]

ec- starts to align northerly. 

Impressive pac-ridge less pronounced Russian sector. ..eye candy f-I !!??

Edited January 4, 2017 by tight isobar

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Wc- starts to align northerly. 

Impressive pac-ridge less pronounced russ sector. ..eye candy f-I !!??

Sadly pressure looks stubbornly high around Iberia and low over Greenland.

[snowice]

-8uppers ecm 192

[sorepaw1]

Interesting ecm  and GFS.  At what point will we see weather warnings for much of the country including London area.

Still FI to a point. But it's not as if these runs have all of a sudden sprung up.

There's been a hint of colder weather on and off since the 29th of December for mid Jan.maybe coincidence .or just the way it is. All positive for now . T+144 HRS  looking good for Western areas and surprises for other areas . Excuse my poor science but I like to keep my posts of an easy read for all to read and understand. As  there is just as many readers as posters. The chart below shows wintery showers feeding south. Most places would be unlucky to miss a snow showers by day or night.

Recent ground frosts have helped lower soil temps to . And the seas around the uk are cooler than this time last year too. 

 

 

[tight isobar]

Karyo..eye now the russian sector putting a squeeze on pressure systems at/around Greenland forcing the effort south south east.

[Snowman.]

Bordering real cold NW'ly on ECM.

[Johnp]

Sorepaw  - we're a looong way from weather warnings being issued! Except maybe in the Express.

[knocker]

The ecm has a 160Kt jet swinging SE over Ireland at T126 introducing troughs running SE with bands of rain and  strong NW winds The latter very much the order of the day for the rest of the run as the HP mid Atlantic once more nudges NE Temps around average becoming a little below.

Edited January 4, 2017 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

The coldest point of ECM tonight is at t192

More westerly by the very end

Unless we can shift the high we're just looking at cold snaps rather than anything lengthy

If a chart ever summed up the UK's luck for getting cold in it's this

Edited January 4, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Mucka]

Given a PM flow is the best we can do for cold for now, I think the UKMO is the best of this evenings output.

At least that looks as though it would potentially offer a more sustained Northerly with the hope of something more amplified behind in FI than ECM.

GFS is poor other than hoping it is right in FI, but when that changes run to run it is hard to put any faith in that.

ECM day 10 is full of promise but then it often is.

 

Edited January 4, 2017 by Mucka

[winterof79]

Looking a bit Jan 2009 ish to me.Upgrades to come as some have alluded to

Edited January 4, 2017 by winterof79

[Weathizard]

Honestly the Azores high is driving me completely up the wall now! Just sod off you hideous slug, that along with the PV segment around Greenland powering up the jet. Unfortunately though it's a pattern we've seen is ridiculously tough to shift