Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[phil nw.]

17 minutes ago, Polar Walker said:

As we move into mid-winter cold and snow lovers are persistently frustrated by an Azores HIGH which re-emerges time and again sometimes slipping across the British Isles and keeping the Polar and Russian cold air teasingly close by to our North and East. This has been a similar set up for many years now with rare incursions to the North of Britain but never lasting long enough to take hold. Unless we see long-term ridging heights over Scandinavia and to our West in the Atlantic little will change. Even the NAO seems to have made little difference when one studies the cycle and the resulting winters across Britain. Ensemble data doesn't give much hope either in the short-term and suffice it to say, if we enter February with a solid Azores HIGH then its game over for yet another winter for real snow and cold lovers. Sorry!

Yes along with the organised  Greenland Vortex these are what some of us older members have been known to call the evil twins of the UK Winter for cold lovers.

The only saving grace is the ongoing trend to Euro troughing which at least gives the UK chances of polar maritime incursions-not great but maybe some favoured locations up north will see some snowfall whilst night frosts would be back on the menu.

What we don't want is for heights to extend eastwards from that high into France as all that would do is back the flow to an even milder west or south west whilst the jet continues to stream across to the north

Not a great pattern for any lasting cold but if we can see that AH get further west out into the Atlantic it may just deepen the cold for us down the line especially with a bit of ridging. 

[mountain shadow]

34 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Unless we get the NAO decently negative too though, the cold will not move in our direction and I haven't seen anomalies low pressure towards the Azores. There might be scope for a Kent clipper but I see very little to bring the cold continental air across the majority of the UK at present.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

53 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Yesterday afternoon i sent Judah Cohen a Email asking if the UK would get any colder or will we have any Snow ' I thought give it a go as he might reply ' and behold he did and this is his reply to me .

 

Very interesting as I too see the 3rd week as the biggest chance of winter.  But confidence is low due to how Dec panned out

 

BFTP

[Singularity]

1 hour ago, Rocheydub said:

Nothing to see in the MJO at the moment. Think I'll take a break from model watching for a while, see can mother nature muster up more interesting charts.

Interesting trend today though; more toward the Pacific with GEFS finally coming into line with ECMF. 

I believe we're seeing the models hesitantly starting to latch onto the Pacific tropical MJO progression that Tamara has been anticipating mid-late Jan, which could work wonders for us if it can achieve enough amplitude. 

Could.

The remnants of the recent TC to the east of India should slowly break down, lessening the interference from that region.

  

The modified ECMF spread offers the most interesting tropical guidance in a long time, as do both raw and modified versions of the long-range run. An active MJO moving through 7 in Jan and then looping 7/8 toward Feb would be golden as 6-7 produces the optimum HLB response in Jan, and 7-8 the optimum response in Feb. Pray for the EC monthly to be along the right lines... it's little wonder the predictions for our part of the world were so notably on the cold side.

It's funny really, how much has changed in a day; there did indeed seem to be nothing much of note in the model projections yesterday. Yet there had been a few days before that - so it seems the models had a major wobble there!

[carinthian]

On 01/01/2017 at 10:12, carinthian said:

Looks like Austria going into the freezer later in the week. Will be a shock over here with such low uppers after the mild, sunny Christmas and New Year. Still on the cold side for much of England and Wales.

C

Well the snow arrived exactly on time. Our fine mesh snow model last evening forecast snow to start at 1500 hours local time,in fact it was 15 mins too late !! It forecasts a 24 hour snowfall with 19cm by 1200 local tomorrow. Forecast temp of -14c at 2200m. Tomorrow night -25c in the valley. The  forecast model is 2kx2k range for my location. Mountain top locations will see higher snow rates and values. Getting exited now, time for a walk in the stuff and celebrate this much needed snowfall in the pub!

C

[booferking]

Even at 96hr GFS is less amplified than uk model and thats meant to be reliable the goal posts have been moved this year for the reliable.

[Seasonality]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Even at 96hr GFS is less amplified than uk model and thats meant to be reliable the goal posts have been moved this year for the reliable.

And quite significant differences at that in the supposedly reliable time frame, what output can we trust at the moment?!

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

And quite significant differences at that in the supposedly reliable time frame, what output can we trust at the moment?!

Not sure i see any real difference..... ?

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

, what output can we trust at the moment?!

Any output which shows the Uk and Ireland without cold and snow perhaps.

Whilst there are differences between them at that range it means very little. We cannot expect anything proper cold until after mid month.

Edited January 4, 2017 by mountain shadow

[Country Boy]

I love the comment of the Slug being around for to long.

The 9day chart of the GFS..Is showing the Slug being further west.

Let's hope the lettuce to the east can nudge it further west

 

Sorry can't post thumbnail of GFS

Edited January 4, 2017 by clactongaz

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Not sure i see any real difference..... ?

Check out the low at the south of Greenland, further NE and more intense on GFS and cold pool pushed further SE in Europe at same time frame.

[radiohead]

UKMO today vs, yesterday. Similar but the low is further north and east at the same timeframe today.

GFS still different

[radiohead]

UKMO T144...

GFS a bit further east, but not much difference broadly speaking at this point.

 

Edited January 4, 2017 by radiohead

[frosty ground]

Just now, radiohead said:

UKMO T144...

Added the GFS for the same time.... 

[frosty ground]

UKM Vs GFS @144hours

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

UKM Vs GFS @144hours

 

Ukmo looking good there, a northwesterly from Greenland/Canada will be a cold one. Gfs not so good mind!

[Seasonality]

Out to the 13th of Jan and this is a somewhat colder run than the 06z looking at surface temps with greater spread of sub zero temperatures across Europe and down spine of Great Britain into north of England.

[radiohead]

A much better cold shot on the 12Z GFS at T204. Widespread snow showers.

[alexisj9]

12 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

UKM Vs GFS @144hours

 

Think the low looks like going under on both. Unless I'm seeing things wrong.

Edited January 4, 2017 by alexisj9

[Ali1977]

Next Friday and the weekend could be very cold, with some snow about. -8c uppers here with plenty of instability. 

Change that, -10 uppers and the coldest period of winter yet by next weekend.

Edited January 4, 2017 by Ali1977

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I'm pretty sure looking at some of these charts that's the coldest north westerly we will have had in a long long time IF it verfiys. 

That's a nice flow too coming out of a very very cold air mass. 

Don't think it looks boring at the moment at all.. 

Oh Azores high please, the party is over go to bed!! 

 

 

[Johnp]

5 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Think it looks like going under on both. Unless I'm seeing things wrong.

Going under what?

[Chris K]

I still cannot get rid of the niggling fear the pattern for the forseeable is that persistently annoying High pressure that just meanders near us, to our South, or Europe. Any extra amplification that has shown up seems to get reduced due to a flatter/stronger Jet as the time gets closer.

Any differences in the short term could obviously have an effect later, and even though we have only gone through December, it already feels like this winter is dragging on with the teases in model outputs that have so far just ended up with continued blocking in unfavourable positions. (If it is snow you are after).

No doubt I prefer this to washouts and floods, but I personally feel I have been looking at too much data and information further ahead, which often leads me to too much disappointment. Maybe I should learn to better interpret longer range tools first. It is not as exciting, but I have started to focus no further than T+144 for a while. The interesting charts always seem to be later than this point.

[Duane S.]

GFS Looks good to me. Theme continuation. Details irrelevant. It will take 2 or 3 shots to get the cold in (hence mid month onwards being key here). Backing further west than the 06z

[northwestsnow]

Excellent gfs for NW Britain with a very cold north wester followed by a bitter northerly.Not sure if ukmo is better or worse at 144..