Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[northwestsnow]

Not one for singling people out but steve murr take a bloody bow.Im not saying it will pan out exactly as ECM suggests but your analysis and vision for details and potential ' way out' of this pattern have been absolutely fantastic.

Genius, how you never carved a career i will never know, and yes im being serious!

Edited January 3, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Summer Sun]

 

[Backtrack]

44 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Now I wonder....

Is this what comes next?....

Nice cold uppers coming our way as well...

 

Coming from a realistic point of view- isn't it unlikely that our entire longitude position across the entire earth is affected by a cold outbreak? Below average in a ring around the earth. Chart seems unlikely, surely?

[Duane S.]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Everyone in a bit of a hurry for some reason. The day 7 northerly (re ukmo and ECM)  is an added extra. The main course as shown at the end of the ECM is bang in line with the extended ens for many days now. With the 12z op now showing the pattern at day 10, fully expect the eps to finally show the high anomolies to our south to be buggering off by day 10 which is an important timescale re the change in resolution on the eps. 

in fact the geps bring the trough in day 9 whilst the GEFS have moved back to day 11. Longer term, the hemispheric pattern continues to establish, whereby the aleutian ridge splits through between the vortices and establishes on the Siberian side whilst the Siberian vortex segment works its way around the Bering sea towards Alaska. This will hopefully have the effect of drawing the Canadian segment's attention towards Alaska and theoretically should allow a better chance for HLB to establish to our north/northeast. 

starting to wonder what exactly will throw the current drift to proper cold off track. perhaps the troughing will drop quickly south, before any really cold uppers have time to advect south westwards and the ridging will drop in over the uk with the euro trough a bit too far south to affect us. That's not what the mean/anomolies show but would be nuts our luck this season. note the gfsp, having trailed the current route to cold by mid month has gone awol on the pattern in general. 

 

Ha ha It gets you like that doesn't it. It shouldn't but it does! If it can go wrong, seemingly it will.

I do agree with you ref the timing. Anything ('proper' cold wise) prior to mid month I am viewing as a bonus. Some great building blocks being stacked up in our favour in terms of HLB forming in the right locale. The gradual movement away of the Southerly slug being the critical one.

[Guest]

you know somethings afoot when you go to have dinner come pack to 60+ replies. brilliant 12z suite. big day of model watching tomorrow the 00z and the 12z will be massive in deciding what path we take. us coldies will go to bed tonight hoping and dreaming of a snowy Nirvana. will our dreams come true or will they turn into nightmares.? tomorrow will tell us the answers. i remember back to the cold spell of Jan 2013 GFS was late to the party Steve Murr called it right then with the GFS slowly backtracking toward UKMO/ECM. Will it happen again?

[SMU]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not one for singling people out but steve murr take a bloody bow.Im not saying it will pan out exactly as ECM suggests but your analysis and vision for details and potential ' way out' of this pattern have been absolutely fantastic.

Genius, how you never carved a career i will never know, and yes im being serious!

Lol thanks - I would be happier when GFS on board- however look at this

UKMO 12z 15/01/13 - 144 undercut ( ian brown WTF moment )

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?jour=16&mois=1&annee=2013&heure=12&archive=1&mode=&ech=72&map=&nh=0&carte=1021

GFS run same time - look at 144 - NO COLD OE UNDERCUTTING

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?jour=16&mois=1&annee=2013&heure=12&archive=1&mode=0&ech=6&runpara=0&carte=0  

GFS 24 hours later - its caught up !

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?jour=17&mois=1&annee=2013&heure=12&archive=1&mode=0&ech=6&runpara=0&carte=0

S

[Turnedoutniceagain]

1 minute ago, More Snow said:

you know somethings afoot when you go to have dinner come pack to 60+ replies. brilliant 12z suite. big day of model watching tomorrow the 00z and the 12z will be massive in deciding what path we take. us coldies will go to bed tonight hoping and dreaming of a snowy Nirvana. will our dreams come true or will they turn into nightmares.? tomorrow will tell us the answers. i remember back to the cold spell of Jan 2013 GFS was late to the party Steve Murr called it right then with the GFS slowly backtracking toward UKMO/ECM. Will it happen again?

It's precisely 10yrs to the week from the infamous 'Easterly that never was' of Jan' 2006. ALL the models predicted a monster Beast from the East then collapsed to nothing in 36hrs. I'd stocked up the freezer and piled the house full of wood and coal. The bitter recriminationations rumbled on for months on the forum.

[mountsbaysnow]

1 minute ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

It's precisely 10yrs to the week from the infamous 'Easterly that never was' of Jan' 2006. ALL the models predicted a monster Beast from the East then collapsed to nothing in 36hrs. I'd stocked up the freezer and piled the house full of wood and coal. The bitter recriminationations rumbled on for months on the forum.

But its also nearly 30 years since west cornwall had its last snowfest so anything goes....hopefully...

 

[snowice]

24 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

I think best looking no futher than144 at present or I will lose my sanity

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, mountsbaysnow said:

But its also nearly 30 years since west cornwall had its last snowfest so anything goes....hopefully...

 

No way thats hard to believe 30 years??

[MR EXTREMES]

1 hour ago, radiohead said:

Some cold air creeping in at the end of the ECM run. Snow showers for northern parts and on high ground, but of course it's really far into FI. Just for fun.

I think your find most of the uk would see wintry weather from this buzzard conditions as well.

Shame it's way out into lala garden path land.

Anyway what is interesting is the ukmo and ecm 144 could very well lead me to my 2 day ban.

I think the little scandic ridge could well be enough to disrupt lower heights on a north west to south east movement although caution needed as it's possible the azores heights could aid a push of lower heights more east there for continued close but no cigar.

BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL but I'd be expecting to see high lat blocking at some point now we have zero spot count and as cold air is deeply established into eastern and south eastern Europe real battle about to take place.

But I'm staying on the fence until the main 3 have all this into the t96 maybe worth watching the main models to 72hr then I ramp before my ban lol.

Although I'm not overly confident.

[swilliam]

28 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Coming from a realistic point of view- isn't it unlikely that our entire longitude position across the entire earth is affected by a cold outbreak? Below average in a ring around the earth. Chart seems unlikely, surely?

I think you are being swayed by the appearance of blue everywhere. If you look at the 850 anomalies you will see that there is roughly even spread of colder and warmer. It is just that warmer in say Siberia or N China (where I happen to be going to for 10 days) is still very cold in terms of 850s. In fact under the large HP there the 850s will not have much influence and at the surface there is very little difference (typical Max -15, Min -25 in Harbin where I am going).

[NeilN]

I do hope some of these models do verify, and we get some snow / wintry showers and real cold. Something surely has got to give easily. 

[SMU]

Ukmo 168 off the press-

[radiohead]

ECM ENS T144 Mean                                     Op

[karlos1983]

Not a bad mean at all!! 

 

 

Edited January 3, 2017 by karlos1983

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Ukmo 168 off the press-

decent digging of the low but looks to me like we need the high higher, it might just be the angle of that chart though.

[feb1991blizzard]

Absolutely belting ECM mean from what I can see!!!

[MR EXTREMES]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Ukmo 168 off the press-

That would be cold so ukmo wants to party now that be good

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Ukmo 168 off the press-

That looks really good, shame we can't see more of Europe and the Russian ridge extending further west!

[Pembroke Dangler]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Ukmo 168 off the press-

That's disrupting and heading into Spain if we can get a westward correction we'd be right on the money but that's surely disrupting against a block to the north east look at the cold front heading straight down into Spain.

[The PIT]

Nice ecm but as we all know it can go tits up before the reliable time frame of T96.

[Snowman.]

4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Nice ecm but as we all know it can go tits up before the reliable time frame of T96.

It can but the trend here is key. I am greatly surprised by the ECM and even more by Steve for mentioning it a few days ago it had my interest but given the time frame I didn't think much. Now its a case of back the pattern west with more disruption SE and we start getting better heights NE asking a lot but the models like to make fun of us all at times. 

Edited January 3, 2017 by SN0WM4N

[Trom]

32 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

I think your find most of the uk would see wintry weather from this buzzard conditions as well.

Shame it's way out into lala garden path land.

 

The map below shows the current distribution of Buzzards in the UK.  Are you expecting an easterly to shift them west across the country?

Sorry for the tease

Edited January 3, 2017 by Trom
shorten post

[Snowman.]

26 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Ukmo 168 off the press-

Due to the limited visibility it's hard to tell but here is Jan 2013 at a similar angle.

Edited January 3, 2017 by SN0WM4N