Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[chris55]

If we can keep backing west then we'd be in business!

Im not sure if this is a possibility, but with Steve picking out what looks to be an excellent interpretation, is it on the cards to back the pattern even further west?? Or are we looking to dig the trough further south east before it fills?

 

[radiohead]

ECM looking a tad flat at T216. But this is well into FI and very likely to change again in the morning.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Really! Lets hope that's not repeated.I can't remember what drama that was over, easterly by any chance?

 

Yes - This - Remarkable consistency - consistently wrong!!!!!!!

 

[snowbunting]

7 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Whilst the +168 is not particularly noteworthy taking it at face value, the gradual trend is evident that we are looking at some form trough disruption sending energy SE. Back it a few hundred miles west and game on. If not, still game on as we will get a med low
 

Is this the same Nly outbreak that broke our hearts a few days ago when the METO said no?

[tight isobar]

If this doesn't get your attention for evolving cold infer...

Not much will!! Pushing and squeezing of troghing' and refraction of cold east Europe. .

Aiding supplements of inverging disrupting Russian /western most Scandinavia. ....then im baffled. .

Very encourage d..and think things are looking hearty for decent potential. .for ourselves! !!

[BM4PM]

16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

For the GFS to be correct both the ECM and UKMO have to be wrong at T96hrs. At this point there are already some important differences over the e/se of the USA and to the ne over Russia.

When was the last time the Euros combined were wrong at that timeframe? I don't think any of us are in the mood for the GFS with its flattest solution  to be correct!

 Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't it the gfs that first backtracked from the infamous Dec 2012 beast from the east. Granted this is a completely different situation.

[Mucka]

Just now, radiohead said:

ECM looking a tad flat at T216. But this is well into FI and very likely to change again in the morning.

At least we get into a cold PM flow.

UKMO was a little better with that second low and I think that if we want to draw high pressure far enough West we are going to need that to disrupt SE and push WAA NE to reinforce heights there - the slower those lows the further South they are likely to dig and the more disruption potential there will be. 

[Seasonality]

12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

'That ECM'

Just remember, if the evolution is to cold weather, the UKMO was first against the others. 

[northwestsnow]

Northwestsnow...

[PersianPaladin]

15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Really! Lets hope that's not repeated.I can't remember what drama that was over, easterly by any chance?

I was there, Nick. I was there on that fateful night in the wee small hours when the 00z came out. The Fat Lady was finally untied from her chair thanks to that "poxxing short wave" (in Steve Murr's words) which showed up in exactly the wrong place. Seemingly out of nowhere.

[booferking]

Ecm gets colder and colder as it goes on nice.

[karlos1983]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Northwestsnow...

Very nice indeed! 

Starting to see the ops model what the ensembles have been hinting at for a few days now in terms of a cool down.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Just remember, if the evolution is to cold weather, the UKMO was first against the others. 

If its via an in initial polar maritime flow from the NW then its the much maligned GEFS ensembles that picked it up first on new years day morning.

[radiohead]

Some cold air creeping in at the end of the ECM run. Snow showers for northern parts and on high ground, but of course it's really far into FI. Just for fun.

[Mucka]

Even JMA sniffing a trigger low, just doesn't pull that trigger.

[Ice Day]

Evening all and a Happy New Year to all on NW.  What a nice ECM chart to end with at 240, the evolution between 192 - 240 is really encouraging with heights building towards Greenland and very cold uppers approaching from the NW/N. Things have taken a turn for the better......for now!

Edit - ignore the bottom chart, wrong one that I can't get rid of !?

 

 

Edited January 3, 2017 by Ice Day

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Even JMA sniffing a trigger low, just doesn't pull that trigger.

Trouble is with the ECM and JMA, there isn't enough of a 'wedge' of HP behind that slider low to shut the door on the Atlantic behind. You see with the ECM (which almost makes it BTW) that LP just piles in again following the slider. As I said UKMO too optimistic...GFS probably too pessimistic on balance this evening.

[bobbydog]

Now I wonder....

Is this what comes next?....

Nice cold uppers coming our way as well...

 

[northwestsnow]

Hoping for a cold north wester much as Ecm depicts...

VERY happy with ukmo/ ecm...can i believe them!!

[Duane S.]

Very good ECM and definite improvement on the 00z.

Mid month onwards looks to be setting up for the next fail , sorry, window of opportunity. Maybe even a bit sooner.

I hope the vortex is ready, as wave 2 activity is (finally) looking to pep up to a pretty decent level, wouldn't be surprised to see quite a radical vortex split evolve as a result. Don't rule out a proper Arctic high forming and ridging down our side of the NH from it as well (as rare as but the conditions could be relatively favourable for one going into the final third of the month IMO)

So, for once, could we have some luck. Please!?!
 

[nick sussex]

I would gladly take this ECM run even though its not earth shattering as it will end the long wait for some new snow in the Pyrenees. However just looking at the set up there is still some scope for more trough disruption near the UK. You'll note that between T168 and T192hrs the low upstream phases with the low near the UK. Most of the energy heads ne with less se'wards. I'm wondering whether we might see a better tilt to the troughing especially if the Russian ridge can extend more over the top.

What we're looking for is for the troughing near the UK to be more negatively tilted. That black arrow is where you want to see that Russian ridge extend to, if this gets over the top of the troughing then the phasing should be more favourable and with more trough disruption.

 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

8 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Now I wonder....

Is this what comes next?....

Nice cold uppers coming our way as well...

 

Nice illustration Bobby.....I am behind you on that.  I think main thrust will not be before midmonth but the positioning and angling as we see will be.  This is a test now as UKMO led last time, it is leading now. Let's get t144 to t72 and we are in business with a real chance of a potent second half of Jan.

 

BFTP

[Zakos]

GFS and ECM at 168.

I will eat my hat if the ECM beats the GFS at 168 hours... provided it is backed up by its ensembles.

I wonder... is the ECM showing increasing influence of the Siberian High, forcing the pattern to back further west?

ECM anomaly at 144 is fantastic.

Cannot for the life of me understand all the pessimism on here,  there is fantastic potential.

Deep low heights and cold locked in over Europe, Atlantic ridging, Southerly tracking lows diving into Europe.

Yes,granted, the long range models have made a complete fool of themselves this winter.

The above chart is 144 hours out... We are by far in the best position all winter, probably even better than anything we had last winter.

Doesn't the cold usually hit Europe first, then the Uk is usually one of the last countries to join the fun as we are on the western edge of the continent?

Just because we just missed an opportunity for cold doesnt mean anything in the grand scheme of things, still 2 months of winter to go!

 

 

[ghoneym]

Since everyone is getting the crayons out tonight thought I'd better join in  Red line roughly what tonights ECM is showing for the same timescale (+144) I think the energy from the high pressure in the atlantic moving N/E will amplify the Jet and turbo boost the incoming Low we see on the ECM +192 chart. Wet and Very windy for Scotland bringing white stuff in Blizzard formation to Higher ground.

[bluearmy]

Everyone in a bit of a hurry for some reason. The day 7 northerly (re ukmo and ECM)  is an added extra. The main course as shown at the end of the ECM is bang in line with the extended ens for many days now. With the 12z op now showing the pattern at day 10, fully expect the eps to finally show the high anomolies to our south to be buggering off by day 10 which is an important timescale re the change in resolution on the eps. 

in fact the geps bring the trough in day 9 whilst the GEFS have moved back to day 11. Longer term, the hemispheric pattern continues to establish, whereby the aleutian ridge splits through between the vortices and establishes on the Siberian side whilst the Siberian vortex segment works its way around the Bering sea towards Alaska. This will hopefully have the effect of drawing the Canadian segment's attention towards Alaska and theoretically should allow a better chance for HLB to establish to our north/northeast. 

starting to wonder what exactly will throw the current drift to proper cold off track. perhaps the troughing will drop quickly south, before any really cold uppers have time to advect south westwards and the ridging will drop in over the uk with the euro trough a bit too far south to affect us. That's not what the mean/anomolies show but would be nuts our luck this season. note the gfsp, having trailed the current route to cold by mid month has gone awol on the pattern in general. 

 

Edited January 3, 2017 by bluearmy