Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[radiohead]

ECM is much closer to the UKMO at T120 regarding the low off the eastern seaboard. The low in the Atlantic isn't digging as much as the UKMO, but more than the GFS. T144 will be interesting.

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM is a middle ground solution at T120hrs, not as good as the UKMO upstream but importantly to the east has that strong ridge from Russia which should block the jet from rushing east and divert this se at T144hrs.

Compare it yesterday's 12z though Nick, and the trend is our friend?

[There's a storm a coming]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM is a middle ground solution at T120hrs, not as good as the UKMO upstream but importantly to the east has that strong ridge from Russia which should block the jet from rushing east and divert this se at T144hrs.

If it does then it will be interesting what happens next up to day 8 or so as this would be the same way the UKMO might have gone. Interesting viewing

Tasac

[radiohead]

ECM is following the UKMO at T144 much more than the GFS

[Mucka]

Very good agreement ECM/UKMO 144

ECM better East, UKMO better West 

Edited January 3, 2017 by Mucka

[Stuie]

Well things are improving!

Edit: UKMO clicks it`s fingers and the ECM is bringing back it`s bone.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Stuie W

[There's a storm a coming]

At 144hrs it has followed UKMO and the low pressure is sliding southeast and bringing in a Nwesterly

lets see what the next few frames will show 

Tasac

Edited January 3, 2017 by There's a storm a coming

[Duane S.]

Now this is looking better. +144 and it is primed with potential. Details yet to be confirmed (by a long way)

Now what sounds better... ?

GFS + ECM (cold) v UKMET (mild solution). As in last week

OR

UKMET + ECM (cold) v GFS (mild solution). As in now

 

[SMU]

biblical backtrack west from the ECM over 24 hours

168 yesterday

today @144

same as GFS - ECM just faster to move to the UKMO with its superior resolution...

 

 

[SteveB]

Just now, s4lancia said:

Now this is looking better. +144 and it is primed with potential. Details yet to be confirmed (by a long way)

Now what sounds better... ?

GFS + ECM (cold) v UKMET (mild solution). As in last week

OR

UKMET + ECM (cold) v GFS (mild solution). As in now

 

UKMET + ECM + GFS (Cold) at 72hrs sounds better

[LRD]

Even if it all goes pear-shaped on the ECM from now, we have made progress (towards a possible cold outcome) tonight so don't worry too much if 192 onwards doesn't show anything too exciting

Edited January 3, 2017 by LRD

[Stozzy]

Northerly at 168 on the ecm , doesn't look like it would last long though 

[nick sussex]

For the GFS to be correct both the ECM and UKMO have to be wrong at T96hrs. At this point there are already some important differences over the e/se of the USA and to the ne over Russia.

When was the last time the Euros combined were wrong at that timeframe? I don't think any of us are in the mood for the GFS with its flattest solution  to be correct!

[radiohead]

T168...northwesterly but not very cold uppers. High pushing in from the west again with energy going over the top? Maybe it will improve on the 0Z.

[bradymk]

Well it's been a good week for the UKMO-GM if it gets this one right too. 

I know it wasn't as consistent as probably thought with the "failed cold spell" but nevertheless it was never interested in any long lasting cold and never got on board.

Now not even a week later we have a mighty backtrack from the ECM towards it latest solution...

 

[tight isobar]

The wrap is on ec 12z...

Need more flexing of height into Russian portion.

[snowking]

Just now, nick sussex said:

When was the last time the Euros combined were wrong at that timeframe? I don't think any of us are in the mood for the GFS with its flattest solution  to be correct!

I would think December 2012

[Weathizard]

Bloody energy south of Greenland! Leave us alone for once, that being said let's hope to see the trend continuing.

 

if Steve has called this right then that's incredible, he will have called this almost a day before the models even sniffed it.

[Captain Shortwave]

9 minutes ago, radiohead said:

T168...northwesterly but not very cold uppers. High pushing in from the west again with energy going over the top? Maybe it will improve on the 0Z.

It is certainly better, we should continue to see areas of low pressure drain from the north west into that Euro trough with that big block developing over Russia. The question I guess is can we move from frequent bursts of polar maritime air to something much colder from here.

The point really here is at the start of next week we are seeing westerlies stall across Germany which is a real change compared to yesterday where westerlies were pushing to the Urals and beyond.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[nick sussex]

Just now, snowking said:

I would think December 2012

Really! Lets hope that's not repeated.I can't remember what drama that was over, easterly by any chance?

[There's a storm a coming]

I've seen enough up to 168hrs anything after this is la la land at the moment especially with the wild swings happening with the models...not including the UKMO in that as it's by the way the best performing at the moment.

Tasac

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Really! Lets hope that's not repeated.I can't remember what drama that was over, easterly by any chance?

'That ECM'

[There's a storm a coming]

After my last comment I thought I would just hang on and see what the 192 showed...glad I did as next low is diving southeast...but I can't believe what I'm seeing a low pressure developing in the western med! ...

Tasac

[radiohead]

12Z ECM is quite a wet and windy run for northern parts actually.

T144                                                            T192

[Duane S.]

Whilst the +168 is not particularly noteworthy taking it at face value, the gradual trend is evident that we are looking at some form trough disruption sending energy SE. Back it a few hundred miles west and game on. If not, still game on as we will get a med low