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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

When the UKMO shows a route to cold and the ECM & GFS don't,  the UKMO almost always backs down. When the ECM & GFS are the ones showing cold and the UKMO doesn't, it's the ECM and GFS that usually back down. 

99% of the time the above rule is observed! 

Examples and verification statistics to back that up please, surely if it were that simple and that stark the UKMO would simply discard their own output in such situations.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

A more boisterous convincing ridge up the eastern seaboard another good FI coming? :wink:

image.pngimage.png

 

 

Edited by Changing Skies
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Sperrin said:

It stomped all over the GFS and ECM when they went full throttle cold in the very recent past. 

Is there anyway to discern the 850s from the UKMO output?

The 850's are not really relevant though at any point during the UKMO output, they wont become relevant for a good few days modelling yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, Seasonality said:

Examples and verification statistics to back that up please, surely if it were that simple and that stark the UKMO would simply discard their own output in such situations.

I've been through plenty of experiences and winters on here mate to know anecdotally that what I wrote is correct. If ECM goes with UKMO tonight then fine.  However, if it doesn't, expect a UKMO backtrack tomorrow. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

What do he mean by this (Anyone ) Thank's :cc_confused:

C1QcqrpXAAE-BJq.jpg large.jpg

Heights on the left, surface pressure on the right, that's sundays run I think and nothing any good for the UK showing on it.

 

EDIT : no its not sundays run, that's the target day (next sun)

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I wish ecm only went to day 7 like years ago

then some of you would value it more

its 8-10 day output does nothing for its reputation with many model watchers

As an aside, the Siberian high is showing signs of heading west which will hopefully help with the trough disruption sending the low heights to our south week 2

I value all the models but just have a preference for UKMO. Let's remember though, during last week's shenanigans, even in the day 6 range (as far as we can freely see UKMO output) ECM was showing very similar to what the GFS was showing and UKMO was showing something different. 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The D6 UKMO verification has been poor of late, the last month it is on a par with the GFS, which is feint praise, with ECM way ahead. That D6 UKMO chart has the same chance as the D6 GFS of verification based on the last month. However based on the last week, since the entropy became apparent, the UKMO has performed nearly as bad as the JMA and FNG:

cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

I would easily pick GFS ahead of UKMO at D6 on current performance levels, despite the odd occasion UKMO is right, but the ECM is the main player at that range, so that would be your best bet.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, IDO said:

The D6 UKMO verification has been poor of late, the last month it is on a par with the GFS, which is feint praise, with ECM way ahead. That D6 UKMO chart has the same chance as the D6 GFS of verification based on the last month. However based on the last week, since the entropy became apparent, the UKMO has performed nearly as bad as the JMA and FNG:

cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

I would easily pick GFS ahead of UKMO at D6 on current performance levels, despite the odd occasion UKMO is right, but the ECM is the main player at that range, so that would be your best bet.

 

Yep GFS over UKMO in this instance for me too. UKMO evolution just doesn't look convincing. GFS op and recent GEFS suites suggest we're in the long game again. 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I've been through plenty of experiences and winters on here mate to know anecdotally that what I wrote is correct. If ECM goes with UKMO tonight then fine.  However, if it doesn't, expect a UKMO backtrack tomorrow. 

So you can't back it up then? A pity because any system that allows 99% certainty of an outcome not eventuating would be worthy of study.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
5 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

The  ECMWF monthly outlook still suggests very cold across Europe mid month C1MM4K-WgAAi1Rv.jpg

That must be hinting at an easterly then if Scotland is average.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

When the UKMO shows a route to cold and the ECM & GFS don't,  the UKMO almost always backs down. When the ECM & GFS are the ones showing cold and the UKMO doesn't, it's the ECM and GFS that usually back down. 

99% of the time the above rule is observed! 

Ergo, I think we're safe to assume the UKMO model is out on a limb at day 6

I guess we will know by half six if the ECM supports it

Anyone know what the Japanese model shows? Fergie suggested that the Meto take note of it.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
5 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

So you can't back it up then? A pity because any system that allows 99% certainty of an outcome not eventuating would be worthy of study.

I could have backed it up quite easily had I actually seen the merit of such data collection. However,  I thought it was widely perceived as just 'one of those things' and quite widely accepted as being fact?! 

Even Steve Murr has noted that UKMO vs ECM and GFS combo usually results in a UKMO win when cold is progged and UKMO goes against. The opposite is also true, I've never once seen the UKMO model successfully pick cold out against ECM and GFS consensus.... Ever. 

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, A Frayed Knot said:

Sorry @feb1991blizzard i meant this quote ..

quote.JPG

Already edited my post accordingly, not dissing him as he is highly qualified, but he is a bit of a maverick, not sure what he meant but no snow is happening in that timeframe I can tell you now.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Yep GFS over UKMO in this instance for me too. UKMO evolution just doesn't look convincing. GFS op and recent GEFS suites suggest we're in the long game again. 

Regardless of stats, anecdotally, it seems to me that UKMO gets more right than wrong in potential cold or knife-edge situations. At no point did UKMO see a cold spell during last week's runs (for this week) while the other two did. I think the real lesson here is unless all 3 of the biggies are in agreement on a potential solution (even with an ECM/UKMO combo), then treat with serious caution (actually treat with serious caution anyway!)

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h850t850eu.png

So GFS turns back to having a ridge over a cut-off low in the western N. Atlantic (i.e. lower-left quarter) instead of that low pushing NE and preventing retrogression of the Euro ridge.

It's a start, but will ECM drop the NE movement of the low as well?

Perhaps, though, a sharpening of the mid-Atlantic ridge and UK/Barents-Kara trough as per the UKMO 12z would be more welcome in terms of a more dependable step in the right direction (not so far ahead in time) - but could the wave possibly become sharp enough for the trough to get sufficiently far south - having hit a wall across far-W. Russia - to bring snow chances all the way down south prior to the next low making itself known? The potential for this will increase if the low off the U.S. can slow down any further and, ideally, advect warm air more toward the N than NE (but that is asking for a lot given that it's already down to only six days away).

UW144-21.GIF?03-17

Many days ago, the models had this low interacting with the one over the Azores and setting up a ridge that nosed into Greenland. Model watching is so full of 'could have been's.

h850t850eu.png

It really bugs me that if I saw this chart in isolation I'd expect the ridge to hold sway to the northwest of the UK while eroding from NW Europe as the trough digs south, the deep cold air then finding its way across from the NE/E. Who'd have thought that the entire longwave pattern would drift steadily east during that time? It will take me a very long time to forgive the atmosphere for this one :nonono:

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

I guess we will know by half six if the ECM supports it

Anyone know what the Japanese model shows? Fergie suggested that the Meto take note of it.

Latest JMA only out to 84. I can see yesterday's 12z which is a little out of date now but showed similar solution to GFS. I see day 6 verification stats being bandied about the UKMO differences are apparent already apparent at 120, day 5 and the UKMO did, as many have said correctly go for milder UK against the GFS and ECM. It'll certainly be interesting to see which model triumphs.

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Already edited my post accordingly, not dissing him as he is highly qualified, but he is a bit of a maverick, not sure what he meant but no snow is happening in that timeframe I can tell you now.

He is talking about the big  snowstorm on the US east coast that the UK model is predicting but the GFS is not - this is what SM is talking about as it has downstream consequences for us.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

12Z GFS rolling out painfully slowly on Meteociel...

This is a good representation of the 12z FIGFSOPEU12_336_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, swilliam said:

He is talking about the big  snowstorm on the US east coast that the UK model is predicting but the GFS is not - this is what SM is talking about as it has downstream consequences for us.

Right, it still isn't going to make a massive difference to us, it might be the difference between the wet / dry boundary but definitely not any deep cold coming on the back of that.

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