Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[radiohead]

Ridge over NA on this run. Could we end up with another interesting FI on the 06Z GFS?

[Rocheydub]

47 minutes ago, More Snow said:

 we all remember the 2013 WTF moment from Mr Brown..

That gave me a genuinely laugh out loud moment! Hilarious! Funny enough, it never materialised... That was 'That ECM' moment if I recall correctly! Pure NWP heaven, gone by the next run sadly!

[Seasonality]

Chalk and cheese from 00z to 06z at the 10 day range for the UK. That nice little Nor' Wester has gone.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

That gave me a genuinely laugh out loud moment! Hilarious! Funny enough, it never materialised... That was 'That ECM' moment if I recall correctly! Pure NWP heaven, gone by the next run sadly!

no it was the Jan 2013 cold spell, models had really been all over the place a bit like they are at the moment chopping and changing every run, Mr Brown had earlier that day stated no cold for the rest of that winter then bang the models flipped and the rest as they say is history...

Anyways back to the 06z run and is this the -PNA showing up here on this chart?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

3 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Chalk and cheese from 00z to 06z at the 10 day range for the UK. That nice little Nor' Wester has gone.

But the 06z will produce a stormer of a deep fi

BFTP

[warrenb]

hr problem is the -PNA is working against us by bottling up the PV on the canadian side.

[radiohead]

Eventually we do indeed get an interesting FI

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

But the 06z will produce a stormer of a deep fi

BFTP

And so it does.

[Weathizard]

PV seems to be locating to the worst possible position for us towards the end of a reliable timeframel. It seems this winter anything that can go wrong, inevitably will!

 

Edited January 3, 2017 by Weathizard

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS 6z drops a bitter Northerly around Mid-Month with -11 uppers over the UK as heights push up into Greenland.

Turning the flow N/Ely to end the run.

 

 

Edited January 3, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[Snowman.]

As long as runs like the 6z continue to show there are still chances. Getting cold to the UK is extremely difficult and should never be as easy as ABC.

[Paul_1978]

It is also worth remembering that today is 3rd Jan. We have only just reached 1/3rd of the way through meteorological winter.

T+384 is only 18th Jan, and don't forget some classic dates such as 6th Feb (1991) and 14th Feb (1979) are not even in the longest range model suites at the moment (barring CFS).

Plenty more to go at yet!!

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

The GFS 6z drops a bitter Northerly around Mid-Month..

Trouble is the 12z will hit us with a blow torch from north Africa... and that at the moment is the problem.. nice charts tho and defo good for our location

[Scandinavian High.]

Maybe a scandi high later on .

[Dancerwithwings]

Forget about detail, this is what we are looking for 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

To be fair though unless you really believe a chart at 336 hours away will actually come into fruition then there's no point in even looking at it imo.  If charts at t144 are never verifying this year then what hope have the others got? 

A serious honest analysis in the models are needed as far as I'm concerned and there's absolutely no point in considering anything past t144 as a genuine contender. Sure many will disagree and that's up to you but no more garden paths for me I'm afraid 

Edited January 3, 2017 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[jvenge]

Just now, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

To be fair though unless you really believe a chart at 336 hours away will actually come into fruition then there's no point in even looking at it imo.  If charts at t144 are never verifying this year then what hope have the others got? 

A serious honest reflection in the models are needed as far as I'm concerned.  

No idea where you get the impression that T144 charts are not verifying and all season as well. Day 6 is mostly fine. Day 8 to 10 there have been some games.

On another subject, GEFS 6z is looking very cold for Eastern Europe, which although has been hinted at in previous runs, not to much a spread or extent after the 12th of the month (mixed signal previously prior to then) I'd be expecting that to disappear on the 12z. Not sure what it is about the 6z and 18z, but they do seem to go off into their own little World at times. 

 

 

[Johnp]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ok, I will set the ball rolling, lets not beat about the bush will all this 'potential' Bull5h!t, the ensembles are garbage and there will be no deep cold this month and 99 percent the whole winter.

Perhaps you two could take this to the moaning thread and let us folk who haven't given up all hope on Jan 3rd continue discussing the model output?

[Polar Maritime]

5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Perhaps you two could take this to the moaning thread and let us folk who haven't given up all hope on Jan 3rd continue discussing the model output?

Very good advice indeed.. Some posts have been moved.

Back to discussing what the 'Model Outputs' are showing please, Thanks.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[BlueHedgehog074]

Some of these posts, especially the ones complaining about a lack of cold, are definitely more suited to the Model Moans and Ramps thread, really.

Let's keep this thread friendly please, or we may have to lock you up in the Netweather dungeon...

Edited January 3, 2017 by DiagonalRedLine
Polar Maritime beat me to it

[daz_4]

12 minutes ago, jvenge said:

On another subject, GEFS 6z is looking very cold for Eastern Europe, which although has been hinted at in previous runs, not to much a spread or extent after the 12th of the month (mixed signal previously prior to then) I'd be expecting that to disappear on the 12z. Not sure what it is about the 6z and 18z, but they do seem to go off into their own little World at times. 

One thing I noticed is that GEFS 6z are much less sure about how quickly that cold over central Europe dissapears. Quite huge spread around 9th-10th January. It wasn't there on 00z. Maybe something to watch for.

[karlos1983]

00z ens not as cold as of late towards mid month and beyond, which is a little worry, will look out for the 12z tonight with interest. 

[jvenge]

23 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

00z ens not as cold as of late towards mid month and beyond, which is a little worry, will look out for the 12z tonight with interest. 

Are you expecting much to change? I'd be expecting not much to change on the main run, with the usual scatter in the extended range on the members.

Perhaps an open question to someone who can view individual runs for the EPS 46. How different is that run from what the latest ECM run this morning shows?

[Brucie]

Interesting that the GFS ensembles have been consistent in a downward trend in 850s for a few days now, starting from around mid-month.  Note that there is better clustering for cold in the most recent ensembles.  IMO, a synoptic change is on the way.  Maybe the projected change in the Arctic profile (Aleutian high drifting over towards the Atlantic side of the Pole) is going to assist us at last.

[bluearmy]

Working today so not so easy but the 00z eps looked to drop the w euro heights a little quicker and would be on the 10 day schedule later if repeating

it does look to be via the northern arm dropping troughing down across w Europe initially as opposed to the sceuro backing west which is what then happens. Of course, as the spread on the ecm day 10 shows, it won't be difficult for the Azores ridge to hang back just to our south which would deflect the troughing more to our se