Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Those looking for snow within the next few days, there is some hope for the night of New Years Day, the colder uppers edge their way in a little quicker and the front seems to slow its why southwards.

[blizzard81]

56 minutes ago, Tamara said:

Some happy post Christmas shopping and been reading back the last couple of days and quite some capricious responses not just from NWP and but also observers alike, and seemingly from all levels of the debate, but I will continue to plough a lone furrow and send an auto repeat message as per the last week or two.   As gently suggested previously, the end of year/start of January amplified Atlantic ridge scenarios I think are the garden path to avoid in the shorter term (to accord with Nouska's lovely little tit-bit of advice in terms of post day 6) Which has indeed stayed at and mostly beyond day 6.

However, the nearby grass is still green enough as the mid latitude holding pattern offers seasonal weather.

As previously said, I'm watching for the starting pistol real amplification signal. Without it the Atlantic ridge will keep playing garden path northerlies

It might be worth waiting for this link to update because it is highly accurate. That might take some further time however bearing in mind the website 2 day lag times and slowness to keep up with those . I won't suggest patience as that is taboo for here I know, but for what little it might seem to be worth to the majority of NWP junkies on here, you can count a couple of weeks or so from the time that the pistol fires.....

 

 

 

 

 

Your views (in sense of timing) differ considerably to the thoughts of GP. You are normally on the same page.

[Ali1977]

Some pretty hard frosts after next weeks  Northerly as the high moves in, especially if there is any lying snow around from weekend showers. I imagine some better positions of the high within the ENS, not much blocking to our North on the Op before 240, FI though could change that.

Edited December 30, 2016 by Ali1977

[Hotspur62]

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20161230/18/180/h850t850eu.png

 

Still looks like a toppler to me coming up but all FI so chances of it verifying are slim anyway.

[liam300]

Has anybody got the latest FAX charts? These are typically the most consistent and excellent for comparison's. 

[snowbunting]

25 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Despite the differences in the microscale re: the position of the Atlantic high towards the end of the week/next weekend when the flow re-amplifies,which is causing much angst, in the broadscale its interesting to see how persistent the N Pacific and N Atlantic ridges are in the means from now right through to day 15. This persistence of the ridges and the anticyclonic wave breaking could impact the upper strat too, the 12z EC day 10 strat forecast for 10 hPa suggests a sPV split by wave 2. Already the N Pac and Atlantic ridges are apparent in strat forecast lower down at 150 hPa.

With regards to the N Pacific/ E Asia area of interest where the changes appear to have originated, there is a weak La Nina / low AAM base state. Indeed, the most recent NOAA Climate Prediction Centre ENSO analysis (26th Dec) indicated La Nina conditions are present, with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies present across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

Despite the weak La Nina / low AAM base state, atmospheric wave breaking off the eastern Asian continent combined with wave propagation from anomalous tropical convection over the Pacific, as depicted by an MJO wave progressing eastwards on vertical velocity (CHI-200hPa) charts (albeit depicted at low frequency on RMM charts) – is likely behind developing a strong ridge northwards in the dateline area over Alaska and far west of Canada. This in turn amplifies the flow downstream over N America (deep trough) and the north Atlantic (ridge) and Europe (deep trough). Such a wavy configuration of course creates cold arctic air to surge south into the troughs (N America and Europe).

The position of these troughs and ridges to me that looks showing little signs of shifting to at least mid-month and perhaps well beyond looking at the extend EPS and GEFS. So don't get too worked up because the second northerly fails on the 12z, because eventually things may work in our favour and we strike lucky at the surface over the next 15 days which show little signs of budging in the upper levels.

Are you suggesting Nick that the teleconnections are all wrong for that second Nly outbreak in laymans terms??? 

[Banbury]

Easterly on its way

[stewfox]

3 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20161230/18/180/h850t850eu.png

 

Still looks like a toppler to me coming up but all FI so chances of it verifying are slim anyway.

It does work

""""Just right click on the image you want. Then left click "copy image address" from the drop down menu and then right click in your post and from the drop down menu selct paste and you wills ee the link appear and magically transform into an image when you post."""

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Easterly on its way

Shame no cold to tap into on this run but blocking does start heading north.

Edited December 30, 2016 by Ali1977

[Allseasons-Si]

13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well, if we still somehow get an E'ly from here I really will start to think that is the ultimate destination

Lol,it's all about timings isn't it,what i did notice about the 12z run is that it had trough disruption in the Atlantic at 180 to force the hp cell further north as you can see here,and like most say and i will say it again,there is a lot to be resolved well before that as early as 96hrs.

Edited December 30, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Shame no cold to tap into on this run 

Europe getting colder in the latter stages of the run and advancing this way

experts did say mid month for cold so be patient

for the 15th

Edited December 30, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[Cheshire Freeze]

Deep FI but good consistency with CFS anomalies I posted earlier

Cold enough.

[Eskimo]

What's nice to see is the re-emergence of that scandy high around the 240h mark, which has cropped up in successive runs. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

16 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well, if we still somehow get an E'ly from here I really will start to think that is the ultimate destination

And we do...

 

BFTP

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

What's nice to see is the re-emergence of that scandy high around the 240h mark, which has cropped up in successive runs. 

That's day 16 though!

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

And we do...

 

BFTP

Indeed Fred. Seemingly no matter what happens early-mid term, the longer term headline is height rises to our NE. Even more pertinent is the retrogressive signal of this HP right at the end of the run- something which GP has outlined...Scandi heights to Greenland heights in the extended.

Something to keep our beady eyes on anyway.

[Ali1977]

Lets see how many ENS bring in the Northerly and revert back to the earlier runs.

[Eskimo]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That's day 16 though!

Yes...but the building of the high starts at +240


 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Indeed Fred. Seemingly no matter what happens early-mid term, the longer term headline is height rises to our NE. Even more pertinent is the retrogressive signal of this HP right at the end of the run- something which GP has outlined...Scandi heights to Greenland heights in the extended.

Something to keep our beady eyes on anyway.

and at the end of the run it shows that

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=code&mode=12&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

[blizzard81]

Two ways to look at the trends over the last 24 hours. The negative way - things have generally been watered down for "real" cold. Or the positive way - no sign of mild, wet south westerly's in the output. My New Year's resolution is to try to be more positive

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Indeed Fred. Seemingly no matter what happens early-mid term, the longer term headline is height rises to our NE. Even more pertinent is the retrogressive signal of this HP right at the end of the run- something which GP has outlined...Scandi heights to Greenland heights in the extended.

Something to keep our beady eyes on anyway.

Seems to be the end goal as long as we don't go full UKMO the ECM would get there in the end. 

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Lets see how many ENS bring in the Northerly and revert back to the earlier runs.

They have pretty much flipped back to having the Euro heights retrogress West and Azores low behave itself.

How amplified upstream remains to be seen but the Northerly pretty much back on in this set.

[booferking]

Control and mean good.

[karlos1983]

It does appear all roads lead to Rome. We seem destined to get an easterly of some sort. 

ECM ens look great after the warm up

Thats a potentially sustained cold pattern, not a toppler. 

Edited December 30, 2016 by karlos1983

[Snowman.]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Two ways to look at the trends over the last 24 hours. The negative way - things have generally been watered down for "real" cold. Or the positive way - no sign of mild, wet south westerly's in the output. My New Year's resolution is to try to be more positive

There is actually another positive. The 11-15 day range has stayed the same, even with wobble from the 12z runs they still manage to get that easterly attempt with heights still low to the south and high north, obviously doesn't guarantee cold but gives a good chance.