Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[mhielte]

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

No, because the ECM is not consistently garbage.

Neither is the GFS. You forget that when the ECM ballsed up the Dec 2012 easterly, the GFS correctly predicted the Atlantic making inroads. We can rank and slate the models all we like, but ignore any output at your peril.

[SMU]

14 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I know you're an emotional poster Steve but put it into context, it's one GFS run that has HALF moved towards a UKMO like solution, i don't think anyone would dismiss the UKMO as such but until I've seen the GFS pick this signal up for a few runs and the EC12 I won't be making any rash judgments

You would imagine so however years of the same result & the UKMO being right at the wrong time means the odds are stacked towards a swing by ECM

note im not saying no to cold just the UKMO solution of bringing the low down the west instead of the east- I was pretty clear in the text this morning - UKMO evolution looked more realistic !

Plus not one bean of emotion mate I said it this morning - UKMO was high probability...

Edited December 30, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Ali1977]

A snowy London in FI, something tells me the Op will be at the warmer side of the ENS and they will stick with a cold strong Northerly flow at day 8 - then the ECM will be a cracker. 

[Singularity]

The model seriously makes a faff of the battle due to the over simplified jet pattern - but it is encouraging that it still makes headway in the end.

Given that we still see a wedge of HP to the west while waiting for the Azores low to eject a low across us    and then give way a bit, this isn't a joining of forces with the UKMO, more a move to the ECM runs of yesterday in which the Azores low is broader and deeper, setting up a transient Euro ridge until the ridge to our west takes over proceedings. A progression commonly seen sending us from a hot spell to a cool and damp one in the summer season.

[Summer Sun]

FI is once again around t120 to t144

[Jason M]

Well, a cold January beckons for Greece this year

Worth just noting that often the models pick up on something, drop it and come back with a vengeance in future runs, so not worth throwing in the towel as yet.

Edit - unusual progression from 300 hours on GFS

 

Edited December 30, 2016 by Jason M

[Cheshire Freeze]

Vortex in disarray and the UK still manages to find itself in a S'ly at 300 hours

Completely academic at that range and not to be taken seriously but if that doesn't sum up the UK and its luck for wintry prospects then I don't know what does

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 minutes ago, mhielte said:

Neither is the GFS. You forget that when the ECM ballsed up the Dec 2012 easterly, the GFS correctly predicted the Atlantic making inroads. We can rank and slate the models all we like, but ignore any output at your peril.

Wasn't that due to the evolution playing to the GFS model's strengths (Atlantic/zonal), though?

[Ali1977]

I wonder if we've ever had a beast from the South East like this before, incoming freeze all the way from .......Greece 

[Rocheydub]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

You would imagine so however years of the same result & the UKMO being right at the wrong time means the odds are stacked towards a swing by ECM

note im not saying no to cold just the UKMO solution of bringing the low down the west instead of the east- I was pretty clear in the text this morning - UKMO evolution looked more realistic !

Plus not one bean of emotion mate I said it this morning - UKMO was high probability...

Sadly, despite saying this earlier, people assumed we were trolling when you, I and some others mentioned 'no celebration until UKMO came on board'! It's not resolved yet however, and there may be swings back, although it's unlikely!

[Snowman.]

I must be seeing different models as I see no step down into a cold regime with blocking still evident. In fact the 12z is probably the best run today as it upgrades the blocked prospect into the extended period.

 

[JOPRO]

Can anyone explain why the UKMO is pants when it is out on its own showing a cold synopsis, but is the slayer of cold spells when it is on its own showing mild synopsis in the 96-120hr range. A genuine question not a toy throw ,would be interested to hear some on the more seasoned posters thoughts on this?

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Vortex in disarray and the UK still manages to find itself in a S'ly at 300 hours

Completely academic at that range and not to be taken seriously but if that doesn't sum up the UK and its luck for wintry prospects then I don't know what does

 

A slack continental flow with ice days and UK the battleground between Atlantic and Euro cold - I'd bank it in a heartbeat Crew.

 

Edited December 30, 2016 by Mucka

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I wonder if we've ever had a beast from the South East like this before, incoming freeze all the way from .......Greece 

Very odd chart

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, SN0WM4N said:

I must be seeing different models as I see no step down into a cold regime with blocking still evident. In fact the 12z is probably the best run today as it upgrades the blocked prospect into the extended period.

 

That's 15 days into the future! 

The difference is, the 6z had a second, more sustained N'ly, at around 168 hrs on the 6z. If something at day 7 can go up in smoke then forgive me for not being overly optimistic at something showing at day 15.

[IDO]

The control and GEFS mean all heading towards UKMO:

Just a matter of throwing all the previous 3 days plans out and seeing where this route takes us.

[mhielte]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

 

A slack continental flow with ice days and UK the battleground between Atlantic and Euro cold - I'd bank it in a heartbeat Crew.

 

Yep temps below freezing for inland areas at 12pm. 

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That's 15 days into the future! 

The difference is, the 6z had a second, more sustained N'ly, at around 168 hrs on the 6z. If something at day 7 can go up in smoke then forgive me for not being overly optimistic at something showing at day 15.

No northerly on the 6z that early.

That is the earliest part that half the country gets a northerly not even very cold. 

Edited December 30, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[Snowmaggedon]

Forgetting about Day7/15/La La Land what are the charts showing for the Northerly early next week? 

[karyo]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

That's 15 days into the future! 

The difference is, the 6z had a second, more sustained N'ly, at around 168 hrs on the 6z. If something at day 7 can go up in smoke then forgive me for not being overly optimistic at something showing at day 15.

Exactly! Loosing the second northerly is a huge loss!

The models can show a screaming easterly at 300 hours but a million things can go wrong by then!

Only the GEM is now showing the second northerly but of course that's not a model we can trust.

[Backtrack]

Yesterday's 06Z run out the entire forum into overdrive. Bitterly cold easterly with 'state of emergency' likely. This got quickly dismissed by further runs. 

Todays 12Z sends the forum into overdrive again. This time due to delaying the cold. Although the UKMO does offer some support, it's still only 1 run, and it's not offering mild conditions. In my eyes they're just playing with synoptics with no current cross-model agreement. This is likely to be dismissed also, they're not in the reliable timeframe.

we were warned yesterday of the chopping and changing likely whilst they try and handle the current situation  

All is still to play for, eyes to the north and east- met office will always be 'slack' on their wording in their text forecasts- they can't offer a bias. A promise of 'smowmageddon' would send the media into overdrive also. 

The cold will come- how intense is yet to be confirmed, but January is still looking good!

Edited December 30, 2016 by Backtrack

[tight isobar]

I'll personally' await the ecm 12z..

Then make compare! Gfs12z goes a tad cranky after 168..and it evolution looks odd to say the least.

Let's just hope the ecm can shed a little light..one of these will no doubt be shown as giving it Charlie large spuds...

Still optimism rains supreme. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

No northerly on the 6z that early.

That is the earliest part that half the country gets a northerly not even very cold. 

A N'ly was manifesting by day 7 on the 6z...OK a NW'ly but you know full well what I mean. It wasn't at 2 weeks+ is my point and had been consistent for many runs. 

[Jason M]

2 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Forgetting about Day7/15/La La Land what are the charts showing for the Northerly early next week? 

Tbh, the northerly is not the prize for most people as they tend to be a bit meh (like the one this weekend). Its the beast that we all want :-)

FWIW the control has the northerly at 168

Edited December 30, 2016 by Jason M

[Rocheydub]

2 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

No northerly on the 6z that early.

That is the earliest part that half the country gets a northerly not even very cold. 

Pointless looking at 850's that far away anyway!