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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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16 minutes ago, knocker said:

You can see where the ext EPS ens is going by looking at the charts RM posted above/ Or remember John's comments vis the NOAA 8-14 last night which is not far off the EPS money this morning. Surface high initially just to the west but drifting north as the positive anomalies build Iceland area. Ergo surface wind trending northerly/NE so cold and dry.

Op & mean day 11 would be easterly trending very cold --

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Op & mean day 11 would be easterly trending very cold --

The mean 850mb streamlines at day 11 are northerly/NE over the SE of England with the high cell over Ireland

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

I completely agree with caution and have said so already. However the whole point of determininistic ensemble weather modelling is that you don't get 100% agreement   90% of the time. Particularly at t120 and beyond. Forecasts are made on majority percentages. If we wait for all the models to agree then hell will freeze over. 

Beyond t96 the only way to view the models is through majority consensus. As said before we need to wait for Crunch time in the reliable timefrAme, probably Sunday before we have full confidence but I am certainly not wishing to see full model suite agreement after t96. 

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

The UKMO would lead to an easterly anyway, won't it? The ridge building over Scandinavia with energy splitting in the Atlantic going over and under the ridge?

UN144-21.gif

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Is the UKMO having issues with the LP areas around Iberia compared to the other models or do they not exist at all?

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Just now, chicken soup said:

Ive read on here a number of times that the UKMO 144 chart is rarely correct.

 

Likewise. However it would be just our luck for this once, that it is correct

Hope I'm wrong of course

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
2 hours ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

What a fantastic start to the day. It's been 4 years (Jan 13) since we saw European deep cold like this And GENUINE northerly blocking,  especially March 13 which was a once in 50 year event, but this January really has a different look about it and after the expectations before December ruined it all its nice to see winter crawling back into game, be great to see at least one widespread snow event for us all!

Hi shaun just gota get it all in the reliable now though,  also would be nice to see some sort of ukmo backtrack tbh. Remember though it's all a rats weeble past 160 hours ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
13 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

The UKMO would lead to an easterly anyway, won't it? The ridge building over Scandinavia with energy splitting in the Atlantic going over and under the ridge?

 

Day 7 on UKMO develops a shortwave to the SW and has us under souwesterly winds; the others all have some degree of norwesterly. Very much out on its own as a deterministic run but this may be replicated in the ensemble suites of the others.

Edited by Gael_Force
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 hours ago, s4lancia said:

Wifi sped up a bit but decided to see it through on here first before having a quick look at the charts on Meteociel.

Thanks for the updates guys, GREAT looking ECM, was much better than I had dared hope for. It looks like it's coming...

It does, but for the love of crikey, nobody is to tell anyone :acute:

one thing that is apparent now looking at the ensembles is that after out 1st northerly, the warm up doesn't look like much of a warm up. More "Less cold" before the second plunge. 

IMG_5041.GIF

ECM is A cracker.

after yesterday mornings fun I have no likes left lol, that's what I'll judge a good day of modelling on now. I've used my 24 hr quota = Stella runs!

ukmo is definitely a worry, so champagne is certainly on ice for now, until it sorts its life out!

 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

When does the UKMO update ? Are we talking T12 or T24 for a better idea re 'model agreement'

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Ive read on here a number of times that the UKMO 144 chart is rarely correct.

 

Im afraid the damage is done 96-120.

Anyone who regulars the forum will know how much i love a ramp so i dont want to be a kill joy but i can personally see this going the way of ukmo.While that would be a massive disappointment its not mild wet n windy, just cold and dry, much as the metoffice updates have been suggesting..

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

You all know what happens next: the model soap operas normally work by as soon as 2 major models start to firm up: the next run ruins everything and backtracks.

Over to you GFS 6z....

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

i can personally see this going the way of ukmo.

Why? Aside from the tea leaves and a visceral urge can you explain the science behind your thoughts? Why is UKMO's 0z right at T96 when you say the damage is done but GFS and ECM  are wrong? Genuine question.

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

GFS & ECM are now almost singing from the same hymn sheet regarding the 6th Jan and onwards - looks like were on for a very wintry spell of weather folks

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Posted
  • Location: Bolton, Lancashire
  • Location: Bolton, Lancashire
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im afraid the damage is done 96-120.

Anyone who regulars the forum will know how much i love a ramp so i dont want to be a kill joy but i can personally see this going the way of ukmo.While that would be a massive disappointment its not mild wet n windy, just cold and dry, much as the metoffice updates have been suggesting..

In your honest opinion do you really think the GFS & ECM are both wrong at the 96-120 hour period ?

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Great looking gfs and ecm output this morning. But I still urge massive caution. I don't wanna be a party pooper but I think that the ukmo will be correct on this one. The reason been looking at met forecasts the ukmo ties in well with what they are saying which is cold and dry so not really a bad forecast. Just not the cold and snowy gfs and ecm output. Expect them to move towards the ukmo blend of things in next 24hours. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

One last point and this isn't a dig in way just musings. As a modeller you don't want model agreement. Statistical modelling only works when you get your outlier, be they model based and ensemble member based. If you get full agreement then you essentially have confirmation bias and failure. 

A little off topic but this is why the likes of hbos and rbs did so badly in the 2008 financial crash. Their models all pointed to the same conclusion that things would remain happy and strong. However other banks saw small clusters of outliers in the modelling and so hedged the risk a little. Still not enough. But....

agreement is bad :) unless it's on 10ft snow drifts at t24. ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

I would say that on this occasion I am less worried by the ukmo output. From everything I'm reading from the pros, it doesn't have any support from the ens. So my head says it's possibly right, but not likely. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
10 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Why? Aside from the tea leaves and a visceral urge can you explain the science behind your thoughts? Why is UKMO's 0z right at T96 when you say the damage is done but GFS and ECM  are wrong? Genuine question.

Hi wib.A combination of factors really.For one its been rock solid for 3 runs, another the evolution makes sense to my eyes with the behaviour of the shortwave southern Greenland at 96- 120, the meto mrf, and finally, i rate the model very highly.Oh, and i use the old adage, whatever can go wrong will go wrong.

I would be delighted if ukmo is wrong, i just dont think it will be.:)

Edit and ukmo 168 shows the atantic moving in.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis

Wow... again... this time around charts taking turn to bring some very cold wintry weather our way. Yesterday the GFS today the ECM. The mean ensembles still sticking with a very cold signal.  The timing and intensity of the second cold northerly might be the tell tale sign of what happens afterwards. 

Just keep a thought close to hand, in Dec 2010 the GFS picked up the freezing signals in Fl, then dumped the idea  for an omega block high or something along that lines.. well the rest we know is history. 

I would love to know what our professional weather forecastors are thinking about wintry whispers. 

Its looking very wintry first half of Jan. Paypack for such a benign autumn and start to winter. 

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