Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Gem and UKMO are not great at all. We need cross model agreement. This has happened time and time again. 

I wouldn't worry about GEM really, it doesn't phase the low to our SW with the trough as with UKMO which is the true spoiler. It is just much less amplified upstream than GFS and is likely too fast and flat.

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, kumquat said:

seeable is a terrible word - why did I even say that?

You prefer vowels to consonants? 

 

Control run?

check.

Edited December 30, 2016 by Mucka

[kumquat]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I wasn't shooting you down, sorry if it seemed that way, I was genuinely curious.

UKMO is not good at 144 which is all that matters really. But yeah, nobody knows what it would show at 240.

No probs and I see what you are getting at in terms of other models not being inline with the GFS output.

[kumquat]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

You prefer vowels to consonants? 

That's a great triple vowel word for Countdown. I would soon get slapped down by the Dent.

[booferking]

So you have about 16 gefs going for the northerly setup at around 144hr plus the control & op that is almost the whole suit, if the gfs is wrong then its for the bin me thinks and yes the ukmo is terrible.

Edited December 30, 2016 by booferking

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles out to end of high res.

There is naturally a lot of variation as to how amplified the Atlantic pattern becomes and how far West the pattern is backed West but the real news is that only 1 run really goes for that spoiler low phasing with the trough a la UKMO so nearly all at least show a Northerly of sorts.

Should be the best 192 mean so far.

 

EDIT

And here it is, stunning.

There are some truly epic runs within the ensembles in FI (including the control run) with a good few snow events mixed among them. We are on the cusp of something special if GFS is right - please weather Santa!

Edited December 30, 2016 by Mucka

[That ECM]

Nothing was going to be finalised this morning as it's to far out time wise. For me ecm has been the most consistent so we await to see what this morning brings. I wouldn't say ukmo is terrible but not as good as gfs. T144 charts below. Let's see where ecm sits, between the two?

Edited December 30, 2016 by That ECM

[knocker]

The travels of the cold front Sat.Sun. Very borderline snow as it tracks south

[kumquat]

I have no idea what charts have been posted above ( ok, I can guess, but there's no dates, no times, nor no models on them when I expand them - this seems to be a recurring fixture, recently with cell phone posts?)

Nevertheless, things are looking up cold wise.

I won't post a chart as all of those posted above me show the cold coming in.

Edit: my post coincided with Knocker's charts which did show the chart data!

Edited December 30, 2016 by kumquat

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Sorry, I had to, it's gorgeous!

From a Northerly to an North easterly to an easterly 

[Captain Shortwave]

23 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS ensembles out to end of high res.

There is naturally a lot of variation as to how amplified the Atlantic pattern becomes and how far West the pattern is backed West but the real news is that only 1 run really goes for that spoiler low phasing with the trough a la UKMO so nearly all at least show a Northerly of sorts.

Should be the best 192 mean so far.

 

EDIT

And here it is, stunning.

There are some truly epic runs within the ensembles in FI (including the control run) with a good few snow events mixed among them. We are on the cusp of something special if GFS is right - please weather Santa!

I will happily take the control thankyou

      

      

If only the weather we got was like ordering from your local takeaway haha. Hopefully the ECM will keep with the same idea as previous runs.

Regarding the GEM, whilst it is a flatter solution, the general theme and progression is in the same ball park as the GFS, it just topples quicker and less favourably, the UKMO solution still looks to be the outside choice at the moment, but given the uncertainty caused by the Azores low we should still consider it a possibility.

Edited December 30, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[That ECM]

13 minutes ago, kumquat said:

I have no idea what charts have been posted above ( ok, I can guess, but there's no dates, no times, nor no models on them when I expand them - this seems to be a recurring fixture, recently with cell phone posts?)

Nevertheless, things are looking up cold wise.

I won't post a chart as all of those posted above me show the cold coming in.

Edit: my post coincided with Knocker's charts which did show the chart data!

Considering the post talks about ukmo and gfs and states charts below at t144. Which bit are struggling with. Ukmo only goes out to t144 as I am sure you know, therefore it is evident which is which. Or ignore and move on without trying to be clever eh.

[Mucka]

GFS 00z full ensembles central England (mean 850's barely get above -5 throughout and checkout how many get to -8 or below at some stage)

Mean for 2m temps barely gets above freezing. 

 

No sign of backedge snow from the initial Northerly on Euro4, DP's far too high.

 

Edited December 30, 2016 by Mucka

[knocker]

After Sunday there is the usual amplification mid Atlantic of the high pressure which slowly slides SW under pressure from the upstream energy and the upper trough makes it's appearance by Weds. evening The associated surface low then tracks south east to southern Norway veering the surface wind northerly The 24 hours this take will bring some fairly wintry weather to the UK with heavy showers of most forms of precipitation with snow on the hills. Quite windy and temps below average.

The interest from here is that the upper trough phases in with the trough to the east and tracks south east but more particularly a secondary low forms in the circulation and nips down the North Sea which could possible bring a fair bit of snow to the eastern side of the country. If it verified of course.

Thereafter a resurgence of the Azores ridge once more and to add no significant change with the pattern in the relevant time frame.

Edited December 30, 2016 by knocker

[Duane S.]

Ignore the UKMO output at our peril I'd say, we've all been bitten before with that one. But...as poor as D5 / D6 is, it is only poor in the context of the current set up. Still heaps of potential for retrogression a few days later IMO. That's a sign of where we are and it's a very good sign. There are a few hurdles to leap but we have leapt some already. The one known hurdle yet to come is the dreaded hurdle of luck. We absolutely will need some, we always do and always will. I'm convinced we have had more than our fair share of bad luck in recent winters (or at least, no good luck), cross everything that changes as we head into 2017!

ECM 00z fairly important. I'm not greedy. We don't need (although, yes, it would be nice) stonking charts, a small upgrade / westerly nudge from the 12z will suffice for now. 

Edited December 30, 2016 by s4lancia

[Mucka]

ECM 120 much more in line with GFS than UKMO 

 

Edit 144 Notrherly secured, phew

Edited December 30, 2016 by Mucka

[Duane S.]

Struggling to view the charts with my poor wifi this morning (don't feel too sorry for me, I'm in Mauritius). Will have to rely on refreshing this page (still takes about 5 minutes but quicker than wetter or Meteociel right now). Keep the updates coming! ( then I'm back off to the beach )

[Ali1977]

Definitely more GFS than UKMO at 144, could be a great run.

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

Struggling to view the charts with my poor wifi this morning (don't feel too sorry for me, I'm in Mauritius). Will have to rely on refreshing this page (still takes about 5 minutes but quicker than wetter or Meteociel right now). Keep the updates coming! ( then I'm back off to the beach )

Where do you live? have you got a big telly!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Better ECM upstream, high retrogressing and orientated better.

Edited December 30, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Mucka]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Better ECM upstream, high retrogressing and orientated better.

168 is a belting chart, no complaints so please nobody take this out of context, but I actually thought it would be even better with better disruption of the trough West of Greenland which would have stopped the pattern being forced West and kept more Atlantic amplification. Hopefully 12z and at least it is a fair bit further West and more amplified than yesterdays 12z 

And 192 for S4lancia

216 nom nom nom

Edited December 30, 2016 by Mucka

[Iceberg]

Ecm is rock solid nuts doesn't have as much low pressure for the northerly at t168-180. But does centres the high near Iceland. With energy under the block. More akin to the gfs ctrl rather than gfs ops and so better. 

 

[Man With Beard]

ECM T216 - heights in position to the north, expect fusion of low heights to the south and the holy grail easterly at T240...?

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, Mucka said:

168 is a belting chart, no complaints so please nobody take this out of context, but I actually thought it would be even better with better disruption of the trough West of Greenland which would have stopped the pattern being forced West and kept more Atlantic amplification. Hopefully 12z and at least it is a fair bit further West and more amplified than yesterdays 12z 

And 192 for S4lancia

216 nom nom nom

yes, its all about slowing down the movement of the trough in E usa / Canada, I thought id jinxed it by 168 actually but by 192 it was obviously game on.

[Jason H]

Great ECM run. Cold for most of the run. Hights building North. Easterly looks on the cards