Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

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The gfs 06 run is a coldies dream from 1st all the way out to the end with a beast of an undercut at the end I hope more charts like this start showing up each run exciting times ahead

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GEFS are real keen on keeping heights low over europe as long as this persists chances will arise.

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Just putting my neck out there.... this is my second post so don't judge, but from my eye it seems like the iberia low early on played a big role in not allowing the high to drop so that we don't go through that 'milder' phase

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Not sure that the 'milder phase' is an issue though the way the 06z evolves is very clean as a result 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Not sure that the 'milder phase' is an issue though the way the 06z evolves is very clean as a result 

Too clean to believe though perhaps.

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Gfs was a thing of beauty, most likely the best model run I've seen since taking a interest in model watching. The best thing about it was is that the real cold isnt only in FI it really starts at 200+ hours. Obviously 12z will water it down or maybe change it completely but it would be nice to see the trend continue, and if it somehow upgrades then I fear this place with have a meltdown. Fingers crossed this actually happens 

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The 6z GEFS are a little more split as compared to the 0z, I'm thinking not taking anything past day 6 too seriously at the moment.

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I really hate saying it but that's a fairly disappointing GEFS ensemble with a huge FI spread and many milder members.

Screen Shot 2016-12-29 at 12.56.34.png

The likelihood of the 12z downgrading from the 6z is therefore huge. What we need to look for are synoptic patterns for the various reload scenarios after 01st January and to see if there's greater support for cold outcomes, both in the ensembles and UKMO / ECM.

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^^^ Good responses to my concerns ^^^

We shall watch and see. Here's hoping :)

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24 minutes ago, West is Best said:

I really hate saying it but that's a fairly disappointing GEFS ensemble with a huge FI spread and many milder members.

Screen Shot 2016-12-29 at 12.56.34.png

The likelihood of the 12z downgrading from the 6z is therefore huge. What we need to look for are synoptic patterns for the various reload scenarios after 01st January and to see if there's greater support for cold outcomes, both in the ensembles and UKMO / ECM.

TBH, WIB, it's hard to see it happening any other way, I think; I don't believe I've ever experienced a 7-day period that's both as cold and as snowy as that one's projected to be?:shok:

Anywho, perhaps it'll be 61st time lucky!

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42 minutes ago, West is Best said:

I really hate saying it but that's a fairly disappointing GEFS ensemble with a huge FI spread and many milder members.

Screen Shot 2016-12-29 at 12.56.34.png

The likelihood of the 12z downgrading from the 6z is therefore huge. What we need to look for are synoptic patterns for the various reload scenarios after 01st January and to see if there's greater support for cold outcomes, both in the ensembles and UKMO / ECM.

London ensemble loaded with climate base shows very little in positive category; mostly sine wave peaks above the mean.

graphe_ens3_csk1.gif

 

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As usual JohnHolmes is a voice of reason here. I lived like John through the winter of 62-63 (as a young man) and enjoyed every minute of it but now with the years passing I shudder to think of the extremes that winter produced. I have not got the figures but it must have killed off a lot of the older generation to say nothing about the persistent snow and ice and what that did to the road conditions and public transport.

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Good afternoon all, as it quiet i thought i would say a big thank you to all who post, i am a coldie and am liking what i am reading so far about the POTENTIAL colder weather that we MIGHT get in the days ahead, met office for mby show nothing to cold in the next 7 days, but the weatheroutlook 16 day forecast for mby on jan 13th has max daytime temp of -10c, not sure that will come off but you never know, once again thanks for making this place a fasinating place to be when the search for cold is on.

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