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January 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield down to 4.7C  +0.6C above normal. A fall today then a steady increase for the next few days so probably back above 5C by Tuesday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Despite a rather cold first week and the current cold snap, we are still quite a bit above the 61-90 mean, surprisingly... already thinking there will be a marked downward correction this month, like November.. anyhow, at the half way stage and very unsure where we will finish. Given next week looks very average, the odds of a below average one are now looking quite slim, but a cold last 10 days or so could nudge it down a little below average. My hunch is a finish 0-1 degrees above the average, so a near average one, and I'll be surprised if we end up notably mild, but a 1.5 degree above normal finish could still occur. As you see it remains very open..

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    4.9 to the 14th

    1.4 above the 61 to 90 average

    0.5 above the 81 to 10 average

    _____________________________________

    Current high this month is 5.3c on the 11th

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield down to 4.6C  +0.5c above normal.

    Not surprised it's above normal plenty of mild days in there so far. AS to where it will end up god knows as the models are allover place even early on so it could be a mild end a cold end or a just plain average end. Much uncertainty at the moment.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Currently at 5.4°C here, 0.9°C above the region average.

    chart.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    The recent cold spell was associated with cloudy skies, which prevented any real cold minima, which has stopped the CET falling too much - but I still think the CET values of recent days appear on the high side, and a downward adjustment will occur come months end as a result.

    A temporary rise over the next 2-3 days looks likely, then a drop, if we see clear skies, then some low minima will occur which could push the CET close to 4 degrees come this time next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    The minimum today is 3.4C while maxima were around 8C, so an increase to 5.0C is likely on tomorrows update.

    After that, the 12z GFS as the CET at:

    5.0C to the 16th (5.5: +0.7)
    5.0C to the 17th (5.2: +0.6)
    5.0C to the 18th (5.2: +0.7)
    5.0C to the 19th (4.4: -0.7)
    4.9C to the 20th (3.4: -1.7)
    4.7C to the 21st (0.0: -5.1)
    4.5C to the 22nd (0.0: -4.4)
    4.3C to the 23rd (1.3: -3.1)
    4.3C to the 24th (3.5: -0.9)

    Using the forecast for the next 5 days and daily data from all previous years, the likely upper and lower range at this stage is 5.5C and 3.1C

    TJSZhPp.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    5.0 to the 15th

    1.5 above the 61 to 90 average

    0.6 above the 81 to 10 average

    _____________________________________

    Current high this month is 5.3c on the 11th

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 4.8C. Temperatures fell during the day today so only expecting an increasing to 4.9C tomorrow.  Rainfall again is very low with only 23% of normal here so far.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    5.2 to the 16th

    1.7 above the 61 to 90 average

    0.8 above the 81 to 10 average

    _____________________________________

    Current high this month is 5.3c on the 11th

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    3.8c here to the 16th, 0.3c above the 1981-2010 average.

    Small rises look likely in the coming days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Yup 4.9C today and depending on how mild tonight is it should be back down to 4.8C tomorrow. Pretty sure it's going to be on the plus side the question is by how much. Keeping in line in what I spotted earlier looking at our averages. If December is over six degrees it's very rare that Jan or Feb are cold and the pair of them hasn't happened here since our records began in 1955.

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    5.9°C here (+1.1°C). Above average for the foreseeable. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    In fact, here's the full account of Jan and Feb mean temps after a mild (6.0 or higher) December. I searched for cases where either month failed to exceed 2.0 after a December 6.0 or higher. There were 53 winters following Decembers that mild. Of those, 12 produced a cold month, 9 times it was February and 3 times it was January. The greatest tendency seemed to occur in the mid-19th century.

    1687-88 _ Dec 6.0 __ Feb 1.5

    1710-11 _ Dec 7.5 __ Feb 2.0

    1828-29 _ Dec 7.4 __ Jan 0.3

    1842-43 _ Dec 7.2 __ Feb 1.9

    1843-44 _ Dec 7.4 __ Feb 1.6

    1852-53 _ Dec 7.7 __ Feb 0.6

    1857-58 _ Dec 7.3 __ Feb 1.8

    1866-67 _ Dec 6.1 __ Jan 1.2

    1918-19 _ Dec 6.9 __ Feb 1.9 (Jan 2.9)

    1954-55 _ Dec 6.8 __ Feb 1.2 (Jan 2.6)

    1985-86 _ Dec 6.3 __ Feb --1.1

    1986-87 _ Dec 6.2 __ Jan 0.8

     

    Two winters (in addition to 1918-19 and 1954-55 noted above) that had two quite cold months after a mild December were

    1863-64 _ Dec 6.3 __ Jan 2.4 __ Feb 2.3 

    1953-54 _ Dec 6.9 __ Jan 2.9 __ Feb 2.6

    but neither of those qualify for the list. They are the only cases with two months below 3.0 in the Dec > 6.0 set in addition to the two shown in the first list (1918-19 and 1954-55).

     

    Relaxing the standard slightly to 5.5 for December, the closest cases I could find to cold Jan-Feb following a mild December were:

    1771-72 _ Dec 5.6 __ Jan 1.2 __ Feb 1.9

    1826-27 _ Dec 5.8 __ Jan 1.7 __ Feb 0.7

    1941-42 _ Dec 5.6 __ Jan 0.9 __ Feb 0.1 

     

    Is this in some way non-random? Possibly, the difference between January and February cases would argue for a persistence phenomenon Dec to Jan that fades out by February. Any hope for this winter? Faint hope clause invoked. 1

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Well Dec 86 got 4.5C here so not included.

    1985-86 Dec got 5.8C here so not included.

    You can check sunny Sheffield's figures here http://www.sheffieldweather.co.uk/Averages/MONTHLYAIRAVERAGE.htm

    I did say our averages. We are just outside the CET area.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Fair enough, but I think the data generally support what you were saying, a mild December in the CET zone is rarely followed by any real winter cold. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
    5 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

    Fair enough, but I think the data generally support what you were saying, a mild December in the CET zone is rarely followed by any real winter cold. 

    Depressing isn't it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    5.2 to the 17th

    1.7 above the 61 to 90 average

    0.8 above the 81 to 10 average

    _____________________________________

    Current high this month is 5.3c on the 11th

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    Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
    15 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

    Fair enough, but I think the data generally support what you were saying, a mild December in the CET zone is rarely followed by any real winter cold. 

    In the post 1988 era an above average December was rarely followed by any real winter cold - in fact in the post 1988 era the opposite was also rarely followed by any real winter cold, and in some cases a cold December led to the rest of the winter being poor - (1996-97 - Dec 2.9, Feb 6.7); 2001-02 - Dec 3.6, Jan 5.5, Feb 7.0; 2010-11 Dec -0.7, Jan 3.7, Feb 6.4).  It seems that in the post 1988 era neither a colder or milder December often led to a decent Jan / Feb. 

    The story was different pre 1988 - the are various years where a milder December led to some decent winter cold (1986-87, 1985-86, 1984-85, 1977-78) - further back there were other winters with well above average Decembers and a much colder Jan / Feb (1954-55, 1953-54, 1941-42, 1918-19, 1900-01), and to a lesser extent 1955-56.

    The absence of winters with milder December / colder January / February period has being the most notable feature of the post 1988 climate of the UK - not a single decent example.  On the other hand there have been a number of winters with a colder December and the rest of the winter then being poor for decent cold (1996-97, 2001-02, 2010-11).

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    5.2 to the 18th

    1.7 above the 61 to 90 average

    0.8 above the 81 to 10 average

    _____________________________________

    Current high this month is 5.3c on the 11th

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    3.9c here to the 18th, 0.4c above the 1981-2010 average.

    Slightly milder than average over the next few days followed by slightly below as we head into next week so cant see much change over the coming 7 days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield at 5C should be a downward trend although the lower temperature forecasts seem to going up when the actual day gets nearer. Anyway looking at the gfs the colder nights should bring things down nicely.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    A bit of a downward trend on my average temp (updates just after midnight) It should take a good hit over the next two or three days! All I ask for, is one below average month. :(

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    Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

    Interestingly the average mean here is below the CET value. Currently averaging 4.85c but mean minimum are well below average. Mean minimum is currently the lowest in January since 2010. Total of 7 air frosts but 2 extra nights close to freezing. 10 ground frosts with plenty more to come it seems

    Mean Max; 7.8c (+0.9c)

    Mean Min; 1.7c (-1.3c)

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