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January 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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Interesting couple of months coming up. December 2016 was the 10th consecutive winter month with a mean CET of 4C or greater.  There have only been four such runs in mean CET history, all, bar one,

I could go for a realistic guess... But to hell with it! -1.3°C please. 

Do we really need updates to tell us there's no update?

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My projections over the past 12 months or so in the main haven't been very good, anyhow I will go with a chilly 3.3 degrees. January looks like starting on a slightly below average start, nothing exceptionally so, and the chilly theme looks like holding into the second week, with some cold nights helping to peg temps back whilst maxes might not be too far from the norm - potential though for a marked cold spell second week. I'm not seeing a quick return to atlantic mild flow - so every potential for it to be somewhat colder, equally every potential could end up quite mild if the block asserts itself in a similiar position to what it did through much of Dec, returning a much milder second half. We shall see, but a quite different Jan to recent ones is quite likely.

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People are very brave to go for a cold January - after all since 1987 there have been very few colder than average January CETs.  Jan 2010 (1.4) was the coldest of recent times and the only significantly cold one since 1987.  On only one other occasion (1997) has the January CET finished under 3*C.  On a handful of other occasions we have finished more than 0.5*C below the 1961-90 average, though not by much, in 2001 and 2009.  The coldest January since 2010 so far was in 2013 (3.5*C), which was just a shade below average. 

I would say that the long range forecasting models suggest that the chances are better for a decent cold spell next month than they have been for the past three years, and possibly look promising for the best cold spell in the UK since the 2012-13 winter.  So to me it looks promising that we will see the coldest January CET since at least 2013, but given the trends of the past 29 years it takes a brave person to predict that we will see a significantly colder than average January.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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Mostly outside of the reliable time frame, but the 12z GFS would have the CET at about 3.5C to the 8th, then around 1.5C by the end of the 2nd week.That's cold, but still milder than the first 2 weeks of 2009 and 2010 (1.2 and -1.2C respectively).

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I'll go for 3.8C, please.  Bang on the 61-90 average but rather chilly compared to the recent 81-10 average.  However, like December, very uncertain!

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I'm not letting December's betrayal get to me. 

I'll estimate a hopeful 2.8*C please - I may update this if I somehow find time tomorrow...!

UPDATED 31st Jan at 21:36... why can't things go smoothly for a change?

Now just watch this upward revision come back to haunt me :D

Happy New Year everyone!

Edited by Singularity
Revised upward by 0.7*C
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16 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

People are very brave to go for a cold January - after all since 1987 there have been very few colder than average January CETs.  Jan 2010 (1.4) was the coldest of recent times and the only significantly cold one since 1987.  On only one other occasion (1997) has the January CET finished under 3*C.  On a handful of other occasions we have finished more than 0.5*C below the 1961-90 average, though not by much, in 2001 and 2009.  The coldest January since 2010 so far was in 2013 (3.5*C), which was just a shade below average.

Worth mentioning that the 10th-25th January 2013 recorded a CET of -0.1C, but two mild spells bookended the month to give a mean closer to average. Was a very decent spell of weather, I wouldn't turn down another January 2013 if it was offered to me.

Edit: Surprisingly, in the last 50 years only five Januaries have managed a 16-day spell as cold or colder than this (1979, 1982, 1985, 1987, 2010).

Edited by Relativistic
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