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January 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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I'm sure they would not cancel the CET just to please watts up or anyone else. Just somebody on holiday or ill possibly.

There is no point in jumping the gun as they did over there with an assumed figure. What difference does it make in the grand scheme of things if we know the results on 1st of Feb or 10th of Feb? None whatsoever (I will lose big time anyway).

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Interesting couple of months coming up. December 2016 was the 10th consecutive winter month with a mean CET of 4C or greater.  There have only been four such runs in mean CET history, all, bar one,

I could go for a realistic guess... But to hell with it! -1.3°C please. 

Do we really need updates to tell us there's no update?

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17 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Just been reading Two's Jan CET page 12 and somebody gives a interesting theory to possibly why the CET hasn't been updated. Hope there wrong!http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=17221&p=12

That letter does at least satisfy a question I have had for a while now.   I had always assumed that "Pershore" was the station that reports as "Pershore" and is actually sited at Throckmorton airfield - and often records lower temps than anywhere else in the area.   I felt that Pershore Colvege was a far more representative site.

It is indeed Pershore College - not Pershore.   So any estimates based on the (more widely available) data for Pershore are erroneous.

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On 06/02/2017 at 18:42, Summer Sun said:

 

Sounds to me as though someone in a minor political position has requested that the Met Office postpone the announcement.  This does, however, make me consider a possible reason for doing so.  Despite not being a conspiracy theorist (99% of such 'theories' are, IMO, rubbish), I do wonder whether political events in the US have something to do with it?

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7 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Sounds to me as though someone in a minor political position has requested that the Met Office postpone the announcement.  This does, however, make me consider a possible reason for doing so.  Despite not being a conspiracy theorist (99% of such 'theories' are, IMO, rubbish), I do wonder whether political events in the US have something to do with it?

No! !!!!  And political comments etc, are most certainly not for this thread.

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28 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Sounds to me as though someone in a minor political position has requested that the Met Office postpone the announcement.  This does, however, make me consider a possible reason for doing so.  Despite not being a conspiracy theorist (99% of such 'theories' are, IMO, rubbish), I do wonder whether political events in the US have something to do with it?

No-one's going to make a big deal out of a single month's temperature over an area covering a tiny part of the world being unremarkably average, surely?

 

Censoring ice extent or global average temperatures... well, it's not feasible but I can see the motivation to do so. 

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2 minutes ago, Harve said:

No-one's going to make a big deal out of a single month's temperature over an area covering a tiny part of the world being unremarkably average, surely?

 

Censoring ice extent or global average temperatures... well, it's not feasible but I can see the motivation to do so. 

Agreed, but I just can't understand why else requests for information as to when we can expect the final figure for January would receive such a spin-loaded non-answer.

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14 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Does anyone have a rough estimate of what the final figure may be?

I reckon we should settle on 4.9C and get on with the scoring.. sarcastic_blum.gif

Going back to the link on TWO, the guy who runs the comp reckons no more than 4c :whistling:

He's usually very accurate with his assessments.

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The only fair way of doing it will be to take an average of the latest known value (4.8c) and GW's calculated final value of 3.87C.

That's 4.3335 ie 4.3C.!!:):hi:

Any other solutions?

 

 

Seriously though..

It does look a bit strange that the CET data set has come up for review in this way - if it is a political point that is causing issues.. I think it is generally regarded as one of the best and most accurate in the world, so why should it be affected?

 

MIA

 

 

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57 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Going back to the link on TWO, the guy who runs the comp reckons no more than 4c :whistling:

He's usually very accurate with his assessments.

Come on 3.8C!

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Having just moaned about this winter on the whingeing thread I have to say January was actually quite cold in Kent. I can only assume the delay in announcing the CET for the month is due to trying to establish an accurate figure after such an unusually pronounced divide between a rather cold south east and a rather mild north and west.  

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On 1/3/2017 at 19:50, Timmytour said:

Interesting couple of months coming up.

December 2016 was the 10th consecutive winter month with a mean CET of 4C or greater.  There have only been four such runs in mean CET history, all, bar one, coming since 1970.

The second longest ever such sequence started in February 1997 and ended in with JAN 2001 which came in at 3.2C.  If this month finishes at 4C or greater,  than that sequence will be joined by the current sequence. If February proves a similar mildish month, this sequence will take second place outright. 

 

 

January just about made it, so we join the other sequence on 11 now.

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January 2017 confirmed as having a CET of 4.0, or more precisely 3.95, or actually 3.9516*C.  So it just got fractionally above 3.95 to make them round it up to 4.0.

It was actually just below the 1971-2000 average, but above the 1961-90 average.  It was one of those instances; the last one during a winter month was Feb 2015.

When you look at how the month played out temperatures remained close to average for most of the month with only isolated cold days, and isolated mild days.

So, still not a winter month with a sub 4*C CET since winter 2012-13.  On the positive side, it was the coldest January since 2013, and actually since 1988 there have been only eight colder Januarys.

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2 hours ago, crucible72 said:

January just about made it, so we join the other sequence on 11 now.

Does that still count even though it was 3.95?  I suppose so as the other figures are rounded as well. 

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1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

Does that still count even though it was 3.95?  I suppose so as the other figures are rounded as well. 

That would be my reasoning, and also, taking the rounded value means that years prior to 1772 can be included in the record (when values accurate to more than 1 dp are not known).

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26 minutes ago, J10 said:

January winners 4 players got it correct this month (4.0c)- simshady, Weather-history Gael_Force and AtlanticFlamethrower

Seasonal / Overall - AWD davehsug chrisbell-nottheweatherman

PDF / Excel - Jan 2017 CET.pdf Jan 2017 CET.xlsx




 

 

I'm amazed!

 

 

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