Jump to content

January 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


Recommended Posts

January CET averages and extremes

 

11.6 .. warmest daily CET mean (3rd, 1932 and 23rd, 1834 and 25th, 2016)

8.0 ..
7.9
7.8
7.7
7.6
7.5 ... warmest January (1916)
7.4
7.3 ... second warmest (1796 & 1921)
7.2
7.1 ... fourth warmest (1834)

7.0 ... fifth warmest, and warmest since 1921 (2007)
6.9 ... sixth warmest (1733)
6.8 ... seventh warmest (1975 CET, followed joint warmest Dec)
6.7 ... eighth warmest (1983)
6.6 ... tied ninth warmest (1898, 2008)
6.5 ... tied eleventh warmest (1686, 1884, 1990)
6.4 ... tied fourteenth warmest (1736, 1875)
6.3 ... tied sixteenth warmest (1846, 1932)
6.2 ... eighteenth warmest (1737)
6.1 ... nineteenth warmest (1989)

6.0 ... three tied for 20th warmest (1682, 1708, 2005)
5.9 ... four tied for 23rd warmest (1759, 1974, 1976, 1993)
5.8 ... three tied for 27th warmest (1804, 1866, 1944)
5.7 .. 2014 CET (tied with 1890, 1938 as 30th warmest)
5.6 ..
5.5 ..
5.4 .. 2016 CET
5.2 ..
5.1 ..

5.0 ..
4.9 ..
4.8 ..

4.7 .. --- average 2001-16 ---
4.6 .. --- average 1987-2016, also 1986-2015 ---

4.5 .. 
4.4 .. --- average 1981-2010 ----- and also 2015 CET

... ... ... -- also average 1898-1927 and 1910-1939 -- (warmth not reached again until 1979 to 2008)
 

4.3 ..
4.2 .. --- average 1971-2000 -----
4.1 ..

4.0 ..
3.9 .. --- average 1901-2000 ----
3.8 .. --- average 1961-1990 -----
3.7 ..
3.6 ...
3.5 .. 2013 CET
3.4 ..
3.3 .. --- average 1659-2016 ----- (3.258 is the exact figure)
3.2 ..

3.1 .. --- average 1939-1968 --- (lowest 30-year average since 1881-1910)

3.0 ... --- average 1801-1900 ----
2.9 .. --- average 1701-1800 ----
2.8 ..
2.7
2.6 ... --- average 1659-1700 ----
2.5 ..
2.4 .. --- average 1760-1839 --- (the longest interval for which this was maintained)
2.3 ..

2.2 ..
2.1 ...

2.0 ... --- average 1766 to 1795 --- coldest 30-year average
1.9 ..
1.8 ..
1.7 ...
1.6 ...
1.5 ...
1.4 ... coldest past 28 yrs (2010) -- tied 64th coldest with 1744
1.3 ...
1.2 ...
1.1 ..

1.0 ...
0.9 ...
0.8 ... coldest past 31 yrs (1985, 1987) -- tied joint 41st coldest with 1768.
0.7 ...
0.6 ...
0.5 ...
0.4 ...
0.3 ...
0.2 ...
0.1 ...

0.0 ... four tied at 21st coldest (1660, 1667,1694,1698)
-0.1 ... twentieth coldest (1823)
-0.2 ... nineteenth coldest (1830)
-0.3 ... eighteenth coldest (1820)
-0.4 ... seventeenth coldest, and last subzero January (1979)
-0.5
-0.6 ... sixteenth coldest (1784)
-0.7 ... fifteenth coldest (1879)
-0.8 ... fourteenth coldest (1763)
-0.9 ... thirteenth coldest (1780)

-1.0 ... twelfth coldest (1695)
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4 ... eleventh coldest (1940)
-1.5 ... tied for eighth coldest (1709, 1838, 1881)
-1.6 ... seventh coldest (1776) ... six days end of this month were all record low CET values
-1.7
-1.8
-1.9

-2.0 ... sixth coldest (1716)
-2.1 ... fifth coldest, and coldest of 20th century (1963)
-2.2
-2.3
-2.4
-2.5
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8 ... fourth coldest (1740)
-2.9 ... third coldest (1814)

-3.0 ... second coldest (1684)
-3.1 ... coldest January or month (1795)

-7.7 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean past 30 yrs (12th, 1987)
-8.4 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean in past 149 yrs (23rd, 1963)

      -- this was the coldest day in any month and in any Jan since -9.3 on 4 Jan 1867)

-11.9 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean, 20th 1838

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

That is all the help I can give you ... forecasts due by end of day Saturday 31st December (Merry Christmas and Happy New Year) ...

or with increasing time penalties and possibly sobriety, in first three days of January 2017. 

  • Like 3
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 301
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Interesting couple of months coming up. December 2016 was the 10th consecutive winter month with a mean CET of 4C or greater.  There have only been four such runs in mean CET history, all, bar one,

I could go for a realistic guess... But to hell with it! -1.3°C please. 

Do we really need updates to tell us there's no update?

Posted Images

I am plumping for a CET mean of 4.5C for January 2017, if I may. That is in accordance with what I have for my seasonal prediction for this January: Mainly mild and wet with west/south-west winds but with a couple of cold dry spells associated with high-pressure over Europe bringing hard frosts to England and Wales- at least to locations away from the coasts. Snow on northern hills at times.

I am also going for rainfall totals averaged over England and Wales during January 2017 being 90 mm.

  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

9.5C  :(  Last sub -3.0C January in 1795.  Last sub -2.0C and sub -1.0C January in 1963.  Last sub 0C January in 1979.  Last sub 1C January in 1987.  Last sub 2C, last sub 3C and last sub 3.5C January in 2010.

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

This is the month.....at some point winter in all its glory will start to reign over us.

Depends how long it takes to get going but eventually I'm going for the average to be dragged down to 2.2C     same as 1947 :)

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...