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January 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
16 hours ago, booferking said:

5.5c and people are calling this a cold spell..:rofl:

You can't really make a universal comment from a single location. 

Has happened before, there have been occasions when the south of the UK has been colder than the north. Happened in January 1964, the winter of 1962-63 was colder in the south than in the north. The south have had a more continental influence, with flows from south and east this January. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

Another slight drop to 3.3c here overnight, 0.2c below the 1981-2010 average.

Another couple of drops likely before a return to average or just above from the weekend.

Only 23mm so far this month which is quite a bit down on average, however this could jump up a bit with some rain forecast before months end.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
6 hours ago, Weather-history said:

You can't really make a universal comment from a single location. 

Has happened before, there have been occasions when the south of the UK has been colder than the north. Happened in January 1964, the winter of 1962-63 was colder in the south than in the north. The south have had a more continental influence, with flows from south and east this January. 

That bridge is burned i have moved on we shall see how the CET comes in at the end of Jan for all individual areas for this great cold spell.

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

We are entering a spell where the CET Minimum for seven days in a row is below 1C

Seems a whole lot different to last year.

But my memory of last year must be somewhat distorted because, much as I remember it as part of a very mild frost and snow free winter, we did in fact also have a spell of seven days with a min CET less than IC from 15-21 Jan

That makes it 9 out of 17 years this century we've had at least a week of such Min CETs in January, though only 2014 is missing from the last five Januarys including this month

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield  at 4.3C 0.1C above normal will drop below tomorrow as to how far depends on how cold tonight is. Making a guess it'll be down to 4.1C

Funny old figures this month first week 3.7C second week 5.5C third week 5.2C and so far the final bit of the month 2C.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Dropped to 4.1°C here, 0.4°C below the MetO region average. 

chart.png

With five days left, i'm not so sure it'll stay below the average.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 5.3°C (+0.5) here after a max today of just 1.5°C. 

The mean min has fallen to 3.3°C (+0.9), and the mean max is bang on average at 7.2°C. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Here the max is just below average but the night is above average and thats the one value that has been taken a bashing in the last six days which shows how mild the nights have been.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

I'll hazard a guess that many places today will have recorded there lowest max temp since possibly March 2013 - indicative of just how little depth of cold we've had these past 4 winters. Last year brought no max lower than 0.5 degrees here, coldest day was 16 Jan, winter 14/15 might just have scraped one ice day here bit dubious can't remember exact date but it was the last week of Jan, min though was higher. Winter 13/14 absolutely no cold.

 

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

So the end of the prolonged very cold-by night spell

For here;

Mean Max; 7.2c (26th) (+0.3c)

Mean Min; -0.3c (27th) (-3.3c)

Mean; 3.5c (-1.6c)

Gonna see some big rises over the coming days. Mean minimum I suspect will finish on 0.4c. Still exceptionally below normal.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

3.2c here to the 26th, 0.3c below the 1981-2010 average.

Another sub zero mean looking likely today so another drop tomorrow, fairly average over the weekend before much milder Mon/Tues.

It will be interesting to see if the milder last 2 days of Jan will get the mean back to average.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 5.1°C (+0.3) here. Temp will be rising throughout the day so although today's mean is currently sub-zero, it won't be for long. 

The mean min has fallen again to 3.1°C (+0.7), and the mean max is 7.0°C (-0.2).  The month should finish comfortably above average around here. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Well I'll be blowed if this month ends up above average. The cold spell of the last two weeks here on the south coast definitely in the same category as January 2013, maybe colder. We've had areas of permanent frost for 10 days - finally broken today. Felt mild for the first time since early Jan today - looked at my thermometer and it was only 6C!! Pretty noteworthy for a location less than a straight-line mile from the south coast. Can't be many times the south coastline has been below the CET, if that's the outcome.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 4 with no update from Hadley

Do we really need updates to tell us there's no update?

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield now 4.1C just edging below average another drop for tomorrow unless it turns very mild overnight.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 3.9C just below average

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny old Sheffield still at 3.9C just clocked another air frost courtesy of quick visit by fog. Surprising as we have a breeze around as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

3.1c here to the 28th, 0.4c below the 1981-2010 average.

No change likely tonight, and Monday is now looking cooler than originally forecast.

Tuesday (31st) will no doubt raise the mean to finish the month however its now very likely 2017 will start on a below average month here.

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Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset

Met office Hadley  (estimated)   4.3c.   Anomaly    0.54c.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The estimate was 4.32 after 28 days. 

That would be 0.1 below normal for 1981-2010 (1-28) and 0.5 above normal for the same period 1961-90.

I would expect the estimated CET to rise to 4.5 with milder days at the end of the month, then fall to 4.0-4.2 after adjustments are made to that. 

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