January 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

[Summer Sun]

4.0 to the 4th

0.6 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month is 5.2c on the 1st

[NorthYorksWeather]

3,5c here to the 4th, bang on the 1981-2010 average.

Today's mean looks like being around 0c so a drop expected tomorrow before likely rises into the weekend.

 

[damianslaw]

Wish I hadn't been influenced as much by what the models were showing when I made my estimate for the month (on the 29th), the day before they all started to trend away from a possible cold second week most likely, as I was thinking next week could be quite cold. Alas a milder interlude is about to occur before temps drop down to average and most likely a bit below if the model runs verify as currently shown by this time next week. By the half way stage I suspect we will be running close to the average mean for Jan, with perhaps greater chance of it being a bit above namely because the impending milder spell is most likely to cancel out any colder spell - as the level of warmer deviation will be higher than colder deviation. 

 

[Summer Sun]

3.5 to the 5th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.9 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month is 5.2c on the 1st

[Optimus Prime]

The Pit;

How's Sunny Sheffield getting on?

[Roger J Smith]

The 12z GFS looks like keeping the CET around 4 to 4.5 most of the time now to 22nd. By no means a very mild pattern but actual cold days rare and in the 1-3 C range. Still liking anything in high 4s to mid 5s. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is -2.5C while maxima were around 7C, so the CET tomorrow should be 3.2 or 3.3C.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

3.5C to the 7th (5.2: +1.8)
3.9C to the 8th (6.9: +2.9)
4.4C to the 9th (7.6: +3.3)
4.6C to the 10th (6.7: +2.2)
5.0C to the 11th (8.6: +4.2)
5.3C to the 12th (8.7: +4.3)
5.1C to the 13th (2.6: -2.0)
4.8C to the 14th (1.4: -3.0)
4.7C to the 15th (3.6: -1.0)

I'll do a full update tomorrow.

[Summer Sun]

3.4 to the 6th

0.2 below the 61 to 90 average

1.1 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month is 5.2c on the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 3.4C  -1.2C below normal but a big rise for the next five days so should be above normal by Thursday. All depends if the cold spell turns up or not if drops again after next Thursday.

[NorthYorksWeather]

2.8c here to the 6th, 0.7c below average.

Looking like rising in the coming days before potential drops from mid next week onwards.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 3.2C, while maxima were close to 10C, so we should see a rise to 3.8 or 3.9C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

4.3C to the 8th (7.8: +3.8)
4.6C to the 9th (7.1: +2.8)
4.9C to the 10th (6.9: +2.4)
5.1C to the 11th (7.6: +3.2)
5.0C to the 12th (3.7: -0.7)
4.7C to the 13th (1.3: -3.3)
4.4C to the 14th (0.9: -3.5)
4.2C to the 15th (0.4: -4.2)
4.1C to the 16th (3.3: -1.5)

The likely upper and lower values based on the current data, 5 day forecast and values from previous years are 5.7C and 2.2C.

[Summer Sun]

3.9 to the 7th

0.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month is 5.2c on the 1st

[Summer Sun]

4.3 to the 8th

0.9 above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month is 5.2c on the 1st

[Kentish Man]

Despite the needless to say shorter and weaker by the day mini toppler due later this week if today's blow torch 06z GFS verifies my silly mild guess of 5.6C born out of frustration with this winter and the succession of letdowns regarding putative cold spells shown in the models may not be too far off the mark.  

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 4.5C 0.4C above normal another rise for today and tomorrow. Then it all depends whether we get the ECM solution or the GFS solution as to how far back it will fall. 

[NorthYorksWeather]

3.7c to the 9th, 0.2c above the 1981-2010 average.

Couple more rises before it looks set to drop as we head into mid month.

[Summer Sun]

4.7 to the 9th

1.2 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month is 5.2c on the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 4.7C another rise for today to come yet. Then a good drop off after that but how long is the question and by how much.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Min today is 4.1C while maxima will be close to 11C later tonight, so an increase to around 5.0C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

5.3C to the 11th (7.9: +3.5)
5.1C to the 12th (3.2: -1.2)
4.8C to the 13th (1.3: -3.3)
4.5C to the 14th (1.3: -3.1)
4.5C to the 15th (3.7: -0.9)
4.3C to the 16th (1.8: -3.0)
4.3C to the 17th (4.5: -0.1)
4.4C to the 18th (5.0: +0.5)
4.2C to the 19th (0.8: -4.3)

Using the forecast for the next 5 days and daily CET data from the entire record, the latest likely upper and lower bounds are now 5.4C and 2.3C

[Summer Sun]

5.0 to the 10th

1.5 above the 61 to 90 average

0.7 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month is 5.2c on the 1st

[Summer Sun]

5.3 to the 11th

1.7 above the 61 to 90 average

1.0 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month is 5.3c on the 11th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 5.1C 1c degree above average. Rainfall a miserable 10 mm the dry weather continues.

[Summer Sun]

5.2 to the 12th

1.6 above the 61 to 90 average

0.9 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month is 5.3c on the 11th

[Summer Sun]

5.0 to the 13th

1.5 above the 61 to 90 average

0.7 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month is 5.3c on the 11th

[NorthYorksWeather]

3.8c here to the 13th, 0.3c above the 1981-2010 average.

Another drop likely tomorrow before its set to turn a bit warmer from Sunday.