January 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

[Chris.R]

14 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Go all the way.....GFS 18z out at 9:30

 I was going to do but then thought I might forget  with all the New Year's Eve stuff going on. I can't be more wrong than last month anyway lol. :-) 

[seaside 60]

Nearly forgot.
After total washout last month, will go for 3.6c 

Its so up in the air for January,  could go either way, but think I might even be to warm.

[Dancerwithwings]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

 I was going to do but then thought I might forget  with all the New Year's Eve stuff going on. I can't be more wrong than last month anyway lol. :-) 

LAST MONTH You and me and most on here were miles off.

Last months 'C.E.T COMP' ( DEC ) median was 3.9c and up to now it's 3.9c for JAN....Lets hope there's no repeat of the mild month we've had

and it's bang on the 3.8c mark for JAN

[davehsug]

4.1C please.

[m1chaels]

Forgot to do December which prevented me being wrong.

My wrong guess for Jan is 4.2

 

 

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Tad late and the wrong year but I'll go for 4.0C.

 

 

 

 

[Norrance]

4.5C ta.

[DAVID SNOW]

late 3.7.

[Mark Bayley]

4.2c please 

[Great Plum]

Late but 3.6c please

[Godber 1]

2.2c for me please, pretty sure we'll see snow this month!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

5.4c for me please, not looking good for snow anymore!

[crucible72]

Sorry it's late I'm going for 3.4

[Summer Sun]

5.2 to the 1st

1.6 above the 61 to 90 average

0.7 above the 81 to 10 average

[AderynCoch]

Later.

4.1

[Roger J Smith]

1981-2010 CET Daily averages for January, with extremes (1772-2016) and Dalton comparison

DATE __ MAX (year) _______ MIN (year) _____ CET mean 1981-2010 CET cum  _ 1795-1824 mean

01 Jan ... 10.8 (1851) ... ... ... ... -5.9 (1820) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.1
02 Jan ... 10.4 (1948) ... ... ... ... -6.1 (1786) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.2
03 Jan ... 11.6 (1932) ... ... ... ... -7.7 (1795) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 1.8
04 Jan ... 10.5 (1948) ... ... ... ... -9.3 (1867) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.1
05 Jan ... 11.4 (1957) ... ... ... ... -6.5 (1789) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.5

06 Jan ... 10.3 (1898) ... ... ... ... -6.9 (1894) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.9
07 Jan ... 10.3 (1890) ... ... ... ... -7.7 (1841) ... ... ... ... ... 3.4 ... ... ... ... 4.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.4
08 Jan ..... 9.9 (1848) ... ... ... ... -9.2 (1841) ... ... ... ... ... 4.0 ... ... ... ... 4.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.5
09 Jan ... 10.7 (1998) ... ... ... ... -5.0 (1841) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... ... 4.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.6
10 Jan ... 11.1 (1921) ... ... ... ... -6.7 (1814) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... ... 4.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.5

11 Jan ... 10.1 (1990) ... ... ... ... -5.5 (1838) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.4
12 Jan ..... 9.9 (1976, 2007) ..... -7.7 (1987) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... 1.9
13 Jan ... 10.0 (1796, 1873) ..... -6.6 (1987) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.3
14 Jan ... 10.2 (2011) ... ... ... ... -7.6 (1982) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.7
15 Jan ... 10.3 (1804) ... ... ... ... -8.5 (1820) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 1.7

16 Jan ... 10.8 (1990) ... ... ... ... -7.7 (1881) ... ... ... ... ... 4.8 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.0
17 Jan ... 10.2 (1908) ... ... ... ... -6.2 (1881) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.4
18 Jan ... 10.0 (1828) ... ... ... ... -6.1 (1891) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.5
19 Jan ... 11.1 (1930) ... ... ... ... -8.9 (1823) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.0
20 Jan ... 11.2 (2008) .. ... ... .. -11.9 (1838) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.0

21 Jan ... 10.8 (1796, 1898)..... -8.1 (1881) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.0
22 Jan ... 10.3 (1878) ... ... ... ... -6.4 (1881) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.5
23 Jan ... 11.6 (1834) ... ... ... ... -8.4 (1963) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.3
24 Jan ... 10.6 (1782) ... ... ... ... -8.2 (1963) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.6
25 Jan ... 11.6 (2016) ... ... ... ... -8.9 (1795) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.4

25  ^^ was 11.4 (1846)
27 vv was 10.4 (2003)

26 Jan ... 10.0 (1834) ... ... ... ... -7.6 (1945) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.9
27 Jan ... 10.5 (2016) ... ... ... ... -6.5 (1776) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.7
28 Jan ..... 9.8 (1944) ... ... ... ... -6.3 (1776) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.3
29 Jan ... 10.4 (1854) ... ... ... ... -6.8 (1776) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.0
30 Jan ... 10.2 (2000) ... ... ... ... -7.5 (1776) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.9
31 Jan ... 10.9 (1868) ... ... ... ... -7.2 (1776) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.4

__________________________________________________________________

Just for fun I have added the 30-year mean of 1795-1824 (far right of table) to show how the Dalton did January.

Interesting relative mild spell 19th to 21st (5.1 C all three days) in 1981-2010 data. There is a similar rise in values in the colder "Dalton" period (which had a January mean of 2.6 C).

 

Edited January 2, 2017 by Roger J Smith

[Optimus Prime]

And so the regret starts to sink in when you realise you went for a figure below 5.0c when logically the chances of it being as low as 2.0c in this era are very slim (but normally happen out of the blue)

 

Here's to some faith.

Edited January 2, 2017 by Optimus Prime

[summer blizzard]

Late it seems but my prediction is 4.9C.

[Summer Sun]

3.8 to the 2nd

0.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.7 below the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________________

Current high this month is 5.2c on the 1st

[NorthYorksWeather]

3.0c here to the 2nd, 0.5c below the 1981-2010.

Weather station was moved to near location on New Years Eve so looking forward to many years of data collecting at a house I actually own

[Timmytour]

Interesting couple of months coming up.

December 2016 was the 10th consecutive winter month with a mean CET of 4C or greater.  There have only been four such runs in mean CET history, all, bar one, coming since 1970.

Two  of them ended at 10 consecutive runs with the following months....

FEB  1736   3.1C

JAN   1991  3.3C

The second longest ever such sequence started in February 1997 and ended in with JAN 2001 which came in at 3.2C.  If this month finishes at 4C or greater,  than that sequence will be joined by the current sequence. If February proves a similar mildish month, this sequence will take second place outright. 

Then it will be all eyes on December to see whether the longest such sequence can be matched.  That currently belongs to the period FEB 1972 to FEB 1976 with a run of 13 consecutive winter months that did not fall below 4C. A run bought to an end by DEC 1976 which came in at 2C.
In fact, that only tells some of the story of those years.. JAN 1972 came in at 3.9C.  Which means had it been 0.1C warmer, the sequence would have been one of 18 consecutive months starting at DEC 1970..

It goes to show how much we struggled for cold winters in the early Seventies. Yet, prior to DEC 1970, six of the previous seven winter months registered below 4C with the average for the seven months coming in a tad over 3C. And worth noting that from DEC 2008 to JAN 2011, 7 of the eight months were below 4C

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Late.  Serious dangerous cold outbreak last half/12 days.  Not mild before either so 2.3c

 

BFTP

[Summer Sun]

3.5 to the 3rd

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.9 below the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________________

Current high this month is 5.2c on the 1st

[Chris.R]

Crosby currently at 5.0°C (0.2°C above the 1981-2010 average). Expecting a drop tomorrow after an air frost tonight. 

[Mapantz]

Currently at 3.7°C here. Region average is 4.5°C