Predictions for 2017?

[Relativistic]

15 minutes ago, cheese said:

The implication was that both June and July 2006 were notably above average. In 2013, only July was notably above average. In 2016, no summer months were notably above average.

 

The July-August combination in 2013 was 15th warmest on record. A 17C August is notable, as happened this year, at over a standard deviation away from the mean.

Edited December 22, 2016 by Relativistic

[Methuselah]

Okay then...

Based solely on an expectation of a very dry Europe, summer could get off to an early start, and temperature records might be under threat? Right, that's that buggered, then!

[Timmytour]

Was quite happy with my limited prediction for last year, restricting myself to the month I thought would prove the most extraordinary of the year....

 

I think the most remarkable month this year will be September in that it will end up being only the sixth September with a mean CET of 16C or above and could sneak into third place in the all time warmest after 2006 and 1729

Just a pity that September was the only month I never put an entry for the CET competition for!!

Going to try and pick out the most notable month again this year.......and I think there will not be long to wait!

The last century saw seven years where the mean CET for February was under 1C.  That's once every 13 years approx.  We have now waited 30 years for one so we are well overdue.   This year could see the end of a very long wait

Furthermore, the last four occasions the mean CET for February went under 1C, it also went under 0C.  We have waited 75 years for a February mean CET to come in at above 0C but below 1C

2017 could see the end to both waits 

 

[mountain shadow]

- January to be dominated by Euro High, dry and above average in the SE, wetter and windier in the North West

- February, similar start to the month then a colder second half with frequent Northerly and Easterly incursions

 

[Carl46Wrexham]

January : Dry and mild during the first half, second half a colder spell giving many their first lying snow of the winter, milder Atlantic weather brings a thaw in the last few days.

February : Unsettled but mild first week or so, weather turns colder but dry with lots of sunshine. As weather systems from the Atlantic try to break the weather down in the final ten days, more than one significant snow event for most apart from areas south of the M4 corridor where flooding may become an issue. Finally the milder air gradually wins resulting in a traditional heavy snow fizzling into drizzle with foggy conditions event and a slow thaw gets underway.

March : Rain and gales, severe in northern areas alternating with squally showers dominate much of the month. There will be quieter interludes from transient ridges between low pressure systems. The month ends on a quieter note as pressure rises from the south west. Temperatures slightly above average.

April : Best month of the spring, weather has turned much warmer by mid month, indeed a taste of summer for many parts. Weather breaks down by the third week as the first Spanish Plume of the year brings thunderstorms to central and especially eastern parts of the UK. Cooler more unsettled weather ends the month..

May : If one word sums up this month it is horrible. This month will be a shocker as the Azores High which was so prevalent in April, has retreated far far away, meanwhile the Greenland High goes from strength to strength. Cold easterly winds and rainy days are all too commonplace during this month. Snowfalls on high ground and sleet to lower levels in the first week. 

June : A month of two halves, the first half is a cool and unsettled one..a continuation of the horror show of May. By the second half of the month, we finally get some drier weather but due to the reappearance of the "anomalous northwesterly" temperatures will always be average at best.

July : Something of a mixed bag of a month. Some relatively warm interludes (warm compared to June) with temperatures climbing to the mid 70s in many places but pressure will be low, resulting in numerous thundery days. Storms will be pretty bog standard affairs. There will also be cooler and fresher days as well. No real extremes in this month. When people look back at July 2017 the word that springs to mind will be meh.

August : Another one of those Augusts I'm afraid which fails to deliver summer weather. It will be disappointingly cool, often wet and with a notably windy (for summer) spell during the second half of the month. Finally, as the month ends, the weather begins to settle down.

September : Better weather during the first two weeks than the whole summer. The hottest day of the year will be recorded during the first week. Mid month sees the heatwave break in spectacular fashion with intense night thunderstorms trundling northwards over the UK. The cooler fresher weather which follows will remain in place to see us into October.

October : Increasingly settled during the first ten days or so but the weather will be misty and pretty cool. This will be replaced by a milder more mobile weather pattern with one notable gale in the last few days. Halloween will be a showery night.

November : The showery weather which sees in the month is replaced by a more settled period. Night frosts become a feature as the weather gradually turns colder. By mid month the Atlantic train is steaming in, bringing in an often stormy period which lasts into early December.

December : The stormy spell finally blows itself out giving the country a chance to draw breath and clear up storm and flood damage. The weather becomes much colder and more settled. Ice days become a regular feature. The Christmas period is dry and very cold, but a depression moving towards the south west by New Years Eve is a harbinger of the deep snow that will blanket the country as we see in January 2018.

Edited December 22, 2016 by Carl46Wrexham

[Philipsfd]

I'll go for a good mixture of 1997 and 2007...

January: Very cold but settled and sunny start, then turning and remaining mild and wet after the first week or so, with a gale-storm towards the end of the month.

February: Turning colder at the start of the month again, but remaining unsettled with heavy snow over a couple of days, the heaviest falls since January 2010 and similar to the February 2007 and 2009 snowfalls. Very mild, dry and dull second half of the month.

March: Dry, dull and warm conditions continue for the first couple of weeks, the sun then breaks to give an incredibly sunny third week before a return to cloudier weather for the final week. Dry and mild throughout. (Again similar to 2007 and 2009).

April: An intense warm front from the south continues the theme of dry weather and brings with it an incredible two-week heatwave over the middle two weeks, coinciding with Easter. Unbroken sunshine and record-smashing temperatures, the average breaking 11 degrees and a high of 32 degrees being recorded in London. Turning cooler but remaining dry and sunny in the last week. Puts 2007 and 2011 in the shade.

May: A dry, warm and sunny first week signals the end of the settled weather as Atlantic fronts break the high from then on. Very wet and dull for the remainder of the month.

June: A brief high in the first week bridges the Atlantic systems, making for a very warm and dry first week. Turning increasingly humid with thunderstorms preceding a very wet remainder of the month. Not quite as wet as 97 and 07 but in a similar region. Temperatures around average.

July: Wet, cloudy and cool with Atlantic weather dominating. A warm front in the final few days brings a hot and dry end of the month and a change in the theme of the summer.

August: The warm weather continues at the start of the month with the hottest temperature of the summer being recoded on the 5th (30.5 C), but not breaking the April high.. Convections then begin to dominate after the hot first week, making for a very humid, warm, wet and thundery remainder.

September: Settling down, fairly close to average temperatures and fairly dry throughout. Reasonably sunny.

October: Very much a continuation from September; fairly dry and mild, but with some night frosts in the final week. Average sunshine.

November: Dry, mild and fairly dull (like 2007)

December: Another mild one, but turning wetter in the first two weeks. A cooler and very foggy third week (aka 2006) before another Christmas Eve gale-storm brings about a very wild and damp Christmas period, with a big thunderstorm on New Years Eve to see in the new year.

 

 

Edited December 23, 2016 by Philipsfd

[I remember Atlantic 252]

On 12/22/2016 at 15:48, Carl46Wrexham said:

 

.

 The Christmas period is dry and very cold, but a depression moving towards the south west by New Years Eve is a harbinger of the deep snow that will blanket the country as we see in January 2018.

Dream on! my prediction, wet and windy, flood warnings issued by met office! zonal hell

[Guest]

These aren't predictions more like guess!

 

March +0.8 Sunny, dry and generally warmer but with cold nights

April +1 Mild, warmer and wet

May +2.6 Record breaker month, hot and humid with frequent thunderstorms and sharp showers

June +0.8 Wet and Windy

July -0.6 Wet, windy and cool

August +0.8 More of a normal, dry month with showers inbetween and sunshine

September +3.1 Hot record breaking month scorching temperatures and drought-like conditions for the month

October +1.3 Milder month, heavy showers, bad thunderstorms and storm strength winds

November -2.6 Cold frosty month dry not much snow but very sharp cold and frosts

December +0/-0 Normal average month dry/showers inbetween maybe a periodic cold spell

 

 

AVERAGE : + 1.72 C 

SPRING: +1.46 C

SUMMER: + 1 C

AUTUMN: + 1.8 

 

Edited December 23, 2016 by Guest

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Here's my predictions.

January: This month will be dominated by high pressure which will bring calm and settled conditions. Because of this, it will be drier than average. However, there will be a couple of stormy spells.

February: The best (if you like wintry weather) of the 3 winter months. A very stormy month and some snow in some places. Temperatures will also be a little below average, with a cold snap around mid month.

March: Quite a breezy month and wet at times, although weather wise there will be a touch of spring around the middle of the month.

April: Dominated by low pressure during the first week. Becoming more settled around the middle of the month with a warm spell during the fourth week. Sunshine will be close to average, but rainfall a little above average.

May: The warm spell towards the end of April continues into the first couple of days in May. After that, low pressure starts to take control of the weather for the next couple weeks which will bring wet weather and slightly below average temperatures. After that, there will be a warm spell which will last for a few days, and the month will then end with typical late May weather.

June: The first week of June will be dry but a little cooler than average. It will be unsettled for the next 2 weeks with rainfall higher than average as well as below average sunshine. Towards the end of the month, it will start to feel more like summer as high pressure begins to take control of the weather. However, temperatures will only hover around the 19C-22C mark.

July: The best of the 3 summer months, although there will be a couple of unsettled spells. During the middle of the month, temperatures could reach 30 Celsius in the south, whilst elsewhere the temperatures will hover around 24C-29C.

August: The vast majority of Augusts over the last decade have decided to become more autumnal months, and the same will be true for August 2017. The last few days of the month will see the best of the sunshine, and temperatures could reach 25 Celsius down the south, whilst elsewhere the temperatures will hover around 21C-24C.

September: The settled spell at the end of August will continue into the first week of September. The middle of the month will be dominated by low pressure which will bring wet and breezy conditions. Around the equinox, the weather will be dominated by high pressure which will bring warm sunny days and some cool nights along with the first air frost of the season. The month will end with weather and temperatures that are typical for the end of September.

October: High pressure will be in control during the first week of October, which will bring settled conditions and below average rainfall. After this, we could see the first autumn storm which will bring strong winds and moderate rainfall. During the third and fourth weeks, high pressure will become dominated again. 

November: Quite a stormy month with a cold snap towards the end of the month along with sharp frosts. However, there will be a couple of milder than average days round about the beginning.

December: Just like the last few Decembers, this one will be milder than average, although not as mild as December 2015. There will be some sunny and cold days towards the end of the month, as well as some sharp frosts.

 

Spring: +0.8 C

Summer: +0.4 C

Autumn: +1.2 C

Edited December 24, 2016 by Alice1991

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Heres a snapshot of July 2017

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Heres a snapshot of July 2017

maybe 16th! Wimb Final

[Carl46Wrexham]

On 18/12/2016 at 13:59, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Jan, raging zonality, flooding worries, relentless PV, gales and above average temps

Feb, Atlantic to dominate, still flood risk, milder than average

Mar, dominated by the Atlantic, wet and windy, above average temps

Apr, change, lots of HLB, mainly northerly and easterly winds, below average temps, wet south, dry north

May, low pressure to dominate, mainly easterly winds, at times northerly, cool and below average temps

Jun, starting cool and unsettled, east/north winds, becoming warmer later, weak Atlantic systems, avg temps

Jul. perhaps a Spanish plume 4th-6th, cooler 7th, warmish month, but mainly unsettled, temps around average

Aug, warmest month of '17, maybe 2 plumes! 1st-3rd, then perhaps 22-24th, otherwise mix of sun and cloud

Sep, 2nd warmest month of '17, plume from 5th-7th, decent month

0ct, fairly settled, could be extension to 'summer, 17-19° 1st half, much cooler 2nd half

Nov, starting fairly settled, average temps, but by around 20th, signs of the zonal express, risk of flooding to end

Dec, Atlantic onslaught, gales and rain to dominate, contender of one of warmest,wettest ever

If that comes off I'm off to buy a boat!

[Carl46Wrexham]

On 18/12/2016 at 13:43, Lettucing Gutted said:

2017 will be a very horrible year and the hottest on record at 15.5C CET.  The Globe will average 16C making it the hottest year on record Globally.  This summer the polar jet reaches the Artic, dies and leaves a "weak polar stream" swirling around a dying Greenland PV.  The subtropical jet also reaches the Artic and replaces the dead polar jet.  A main "weak subtropical stream" swirls around the North Pole whilst an even weaker "weak subtropical stream" merges with the last "weak polar stream" swirling around the dying Greenland PV.  The African Monsoon Trough finally jumps the Sahara and Mediterranean into Europe and affects Britain and Europe from the 1000mb to the 500mb level with an outflow ridge on top to form the British Monsoon system.  The British Monsoon forms a monster Mid-Atlantic Ridge and a monster Bartlett Ridge sending heatwaves to obliterate the last of the Artic Ice.  Britain always remains mild if not very mild in winter and always remains hot if not very hot in the other seasons but swings from flood to drought so many times you just can't keep up!  Britain gets monster floods from the interaction of the British Monsoon with Spanish Plumes which also create Supercell Thunderstorms and F5 Twisters.  However Britain also gets monster droughts when ex-hurricanes and/or rare "weak stream" troughs send the monster Mid-Atlantic Ridges toppling over Britain and merging into the monster Bartlett Ridges.  I am also expecting an explosive "Methane Burp" to occur in 2017 as the warming oceans destabilise Methane Hydrates.  Combined with yet more water vapour from the warming oceans, this Methane Burp will worsen global warming more than ever this year.

January the warmest on record 9.5C

February the warmest on record 10C

March the warmest on record 12C

April the warmest on record 14C

May the warmest on record 17.5

June the warmest on record 20.5C

July the warmest on record 22C

August the warmest on record 21.5C

September the warmest on record 19C

October the warmest on record 15.5C

November the warmest on record 13C

December the warmest on record 12C

2017 will be the Bob Beamon Year of CET Warming.

You are Nathan Rao and I claim my five pounds.

[stewfox]

20 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Heres a snapshot of July 2017

Perhaps 9c in Shetland ?

[Guest]

27 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Heres a snapshot of July 2017

How did you do that lol, edited? 

[Lettucing Gutted]

3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

maybe 16th! Wimb Final

It might be called off if it gets that hot!

 

3 hours ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

You are Nathan Rao and I claim my five pounds.

I beg your pardon.  I am Craig Evans, not Nathan!

Edited December 31, 2016 by Lettucing Gutted

[ThundersnowDays]

2017 Prediction:

January: Cold, a bit of snow for midlands up with lots of cloud.

February: Contrasting with January especially late in the month with pretty cold, clear frosty mornings maybe some snow for everyone.

March: Becoming milder, a mixed bag of sun and cloud.

April: Some April showers but lots of cloud.

May: Same as April really.

June: Cloudy first half and a couple of thundershowers with a heatwave 28-31.C end of month.

July: Heatwave mid month reaching up to 35.C and a good thunderstorm for some.

August: Nice summer conditions with sun but not too much extremes going on.

September: Becoming cloudier but still warm spells.

October: Cloudy and clear frosty nights towards Halloween.

November: Colder than usual with snow showers late month across parts of England.

December: Snowy month with white Christmas and -10.C.

[Gord]

Going to ignore winter months as winter in this country has done nothing to keep my enthusiasm up for nearly 4 years now. A very boring season indeed. 

Would love a warm and settled Spring. Something like Easter 2007. A repeat of June 2016 and September 2016 and the persistent bouts of thundery weather would also go down well. Throw in a July 2006 and an August 2003 and we're getting somewhere. 

Edited January 1, 2017 by Gord

[Methuselah]

My hope for winter is a very simple one: that, since we are all now 'enjoying' our starters, the winter as a whole doesn't end-up like one of those ghastly nouvelle cuisine menus; one can only tolerate so many might-as-well-have-been-an-empty-plate-style 'main courses'!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

On ‎31‎/‎12‎/‎2016 at 13:56, BREIFMAN11 said:

How did you do that lol, edited? 

windows paint edit

[Bobd29]

Pretty easy to guesstimate this new year:

Jan - April : autumnal

May - June : cool wet springlike

July - August : briefly summarise before early autumn onset

Sept - December : autumnal.

think that's about right = 81/2 months autumnal dirge, standard fare.....BUT HOW I WOULD LOVE TO BE WRONG!!!

[Guest]

3 hours ago, 40*C said:

windows paint edit

I don't know if your joking, but either way well done on that image. I am in awe. (over reaction)

 

 

[Weather-history]

On 18/12/2016 at 09:28, Weather-history said:

For 2017? 

January: mixture of unsettled and dry spells. Milder than average but not by much. 

 

Not bad.

[B87]

I'll ignore Jan and Feb and start with March. Av max/Av min/Rainfall/Sun

March: average all around. 12c/4c/40mm/120 hrs

April: cool, dry, average sun. 13c/5c/25mm/170 hrs

May: average temps, dry, sunny. 18c/9c/20mm/230 hrs

June: average all around. 21c/12c/50mm/200 hrs

July: average temps, rain, sun.  24c/14c/40mm/220 hrs

August: warm, dry, sunny.  25c/15c/10mm/280 hrs

September: warm, dry, sunny. 21c/13c/30mm/180 hrs

October: cool, wet, cloudy.  14c/8c/80mm/100 hrs

November: mild, wet, average sun. 13c/7c/90mm/70 hrs

December: mild, wet, sunny. 10c/5c/60mm/80 hrs

 

How would you lot rate this for a year?

[reef]

1 hour ago, B87 said:

I'll ignore Jan and Feb and start with March. Av max/Av min/Rainfall/Sun

March: average all around. 12c/4c/40mm/120 hrs

April: cool, dry, average sun. 13c/5c/25mm/170 hrs

May: average temps, dry, sunny. 18c/9c/20mm/230 hrs

June: average all around. 21c/12c/50mm/200 hrs

July: average temps, rain, sun.  24c/14c/40mm/220 hrs

August: warm, dry, sunny.  25c/15c/10mm/280 hrs

September: warm, dry, sunny. 21c/13c/30mm/180 hrs

October: cool, wet, cloudy.  14c/8c/80mm/100 hrs

November: mild, wet, average sun. 13c/7c/90mm/70 hrs

December: mild, wet, sunny. 10c/5c/60mm/80 hrs

 

How would you lot rate this for a year?

That would be a year with the warmest spring, summer (by some way) and Autumn on record pretty much. It would be up there with the driest years on record too.

The annual CET wouldn't be far off 12C. Fortunately we're a few decades from that I would say!